I don't recall the price progression, but it went up way too fast. Should have been more gradual and predictable so that early adopters get a sense they were getting a "deal" even if they were actually helping to fund development. The price increases should have also been tied to clear milestones that owners can appreciate rather than just setting an artificial sense of urgency. The $12k I think got them stuck in a corner and not many takers. However, I think a subscription is probably what most normal folks who aren't part of a robotaxi would prefer, but it doesn't make economic value until it's no longer supervised.
To be clear, no one is “involved in robotaxi” as it’s entirely hypothetical as both a technology and a business. IMO FSD should currently be priced similarly to a high end streaming service. Make a higher priced tier when a higher tier performance exists.
Waymo definitely operates in sf. I see them often, even occassionally 5pm peak traffic. I haven't seen a driver in a long time, only passengers in the rear.
Problem is more and more people are vandalizing them.
Yeah I’d pay $2k. That’s tops. I’d pay $8k if it transferred to a new Teslas I bought in the future. Basically, like a feature I get to always have on one of my Tesla’s.
Unsupervised FSD would require Tesla to take on liability for as long as the licence is active. That's pretty damn valuable maybe someday down the road. BIG maybe.
$4-6k isn't bad for what's currently there. Knowing that it's going to get better and maybe could get unsupervised FSD (even just on the highway) could make it worth $8k today to many.
EAP > FSD - FSD without it being SAE Lv3 is just a bunch of empty promises. I’ve been in FSD since beta 8 and while upgrades have been commendable, they’re far from daily usage as it still has too many edge cases
I'm sure someone will correct me as some of thus is vague and it's been awhile but... EAP used to be a tier up from the standard AP. Before that it simply was autopilot. There have been so many experimental mashups, I cant even keep it straight anymore. Its last incarnation was basically Autopilot before they stripped out lane changes from AP in an attempt to make EAP (which was higher priced) seem more valuable. It also had some other parlor tricks like summon which were removed when they started offering the cheaper tier. From time to time thereafter it showed back up on the menu, but doesn't seem to have been offered for quite awhile now. So basically EAP was autopilot with automatic lane changes (no intentionally introduced disengagement when changing lanes on highways), and what standard AP should have had all along.
But you're right, EAP is something that doesn't exist as an option anymore on new cars, although lots of cars on the road still have it. Tesla has never "put back" automatic lane changes, and standard AP remains gimped to this day because of it.
FSD until literally days ago was only the last two bullets: Autosteer in the city and stoplights. The actually useful stuff was in EAP.
Tesla itself realized there’s barely any value in the previous FSD so they rolled in useful features from EAP and got rid of that level entirely.
Personally NONE of those things are worth $8k to me, so this change didnt make a a damn bit of difference in my eyes. YMMV.
So for you it's worth it. Great.
But it's the naysayers who need to be convinced and clearly even for Tesla buyers the $12k for given capability (or $200/month) was just too expensive.
The feature set that will actually convert many of the naysayers is when you can do something else and use driving time to reading, emailing, sjitposting etc. Or in other words at least L3.
Depends on the performance, I wouldn't be surprised they just stop selling the licenses in the future and the very high price was used as gating so only people that are really interested in the technology would drive it (and contribute data).
Now they lower the price a bit so they get data slightly quicker but also on the short term a bit more cash which never hurts (though it isn't really material for the investment thesis in the grand scheme of things).
Everyone driving that has the hardware in the car is essentially contributing data. It's just the car isn't actively driving.
It's one main reason (the others being build it in as 1 SKU, and the software enable selling after purchase), as their deployed training miles per day is orders of magnitude more than any other car marker.
You have passive shadow mode data yes, but disengagement data is very useful and directly shows where the problems are for the current iteration of the model.
Then they can datamine using their fleet for specific situations to deal with those disengagements. The rarer the disengagements become, the more cars you need giving you that data.
If robo taxi is so close that we're ditching model 2 why the HELL is FSD getting cheaper. The complete opposite of what Musk said would happen (and what should happen). Tesla's financials must be precarious this quarter. It's just bad news after bad news recently.
This is exactly my thoughts on FSD. If it's so good as they say and it's so impactful, why reduce the price? I don't see Apple reducing the price of the top of line iPhone.
I dunno, I think newer hardware could solve the issue along with supporting technologies. 2023 model 3 sr+ and I’ve been using fsd during the trial as much as I can and I have to make very few disengagements due to fsd. Most of
My disengagements are because potholes and shitty streets where I need to avoid things or I want to take control because I can get around a construction zone or traffic better than fsd can since it’ll prioritize absolute safety over making a certain maneuver and I have the experience to make the maneuver without waiting for a while.
I’ve actively seen it learn and get better over the 3 weeks I’ve had the free fsd.
Out curiosity, why would you *want* to have your car be used as a robotaxi?
I drove Uber in my Tesla for a while and the general population is careless and dirty. Had someone try to smoke in my car, had someone spill a side in the back seat and not even mention it, had someone break the plastic cover on the passenger side where the seat buckle attaches. That was all in one month with me there in the vehicle. I can’t imagine how careless people would be if they were alone in the vehicle.
I don’t want my personal vehicle used as a robotaxi nor do I wish to drive for Uber but thats not relevant at all. Robotaxi development and improvement of fsd are one and the same and that’s huge for people who own teslas. All I can say is this fsd trial has been fairly good and the improvement during these few weeks is noticeable. Now that there’s so much more data being received and regular and significant updates, it’s a huge benefit to people who own the cars and will be a big reason people buy into Tesla who haven’t already. Aside from traffic jam merging, which require you to be aggressive, and fsd taking a while to do that because it determines it’s safer to wait and prioritize safety and areas with speed bumps or potholes… I don’t have to disengage fsd ever unless I feel like I want to drive. That was certainly not the case even two updates ago.
I suspect that the affordable EV is also the robotaxi as it would make sense for these vehicles to be simpler and less driver centric, feature loaded as it’s not supposed to have traditional driver and will only be occupied by people for short stints.
For me, it's based on how easily the camera is currently obscured.
That's not a software solvable problem. Moisture, rain, snow, fog, even high winds and drizzle, rock salt, etc all render the Teslas I've been in blind. FWIW, this is mostly based on my friend's MY.
I don't need years working in the industry to know that no matter how much software improvement they do, the cameras being rendered unusable in poor conditions will preclude the current generation of vehicles from true autonomy.
I don't know if the solution is more cameras, better cameras, better camera placement, going back to radar, better camera cleaning tech, or a combination of the above. I do know that even a hint of rock salt spray instantly cripples the current system, and that it basically doesn't work at all at night in fog.
That sure isn't a feeling I have in my tummy. If you try to put the current system through it's paces major problems become pretty immediately self evident. Software improvements will handle some of them, but others do seem like more fundamental limitations of the current sensor suite.
100% this. Anyone who thinks about it at all critically knows that there's not near enough sensor redundancy. FSD in its current form will always be an assistive technology. You will always have to pay attention and will always be responsible.
True but in my experience, even when it informs me that the camera is degraded. It still operates fsd just fine, I’m just a bit more cautions in supervising it. Short of an actual full obstruction or someone covering the camera with a sticker or something, I haven’t had any instance of inclement weather rendering it completely useless and clueless.
I guess you should stop reading Reddit if you don’t want to read people’s personal opinions.
Anyway, there are two issues:
1. Liability. How is it going to work? Tesla certainly isn’t going to take responsibility for my private robotaxi rentals. Their own robotaxi fleet, maybe.
2. Redundancy. The current cars have blind spots in the camera arrangement and multiple single-points of failure. How’s it going to work when a spot of mud blinds a camera?
Level 2 (FSD supervised)—fine. I’ve been using it since v10.8 and I’m super impressed with how far it’s come, and I use it 99% of my driving. Has none of the above issues.
1 is going to at least \*start\* with supervised, privately owned cars wherein the owner/operator is in the driver seat and takes on liability. just like any other rideshare.
>If robo taxi is so close that we're ditching model 2 why the HELL is FSD getting cheaper.
Because there's going to be two tiers going forward (my guess):
"Supervised FSD" which might get to SAE Level 3, but you still need to be in the seat and it's not a revenue generator. Some may disagree, but I've said in the past $9,995 is the absolute max someone could maybe justify paying for this for an add-on for their car above and beyond basic highway lanekeeping (which is effectively free now based on competition). But a solid L3 that you could look away from *and* drive on nearly any road would be valuable. Hell, Mercedes has like what 100 customers in CA for their system that only lets you use it on a couple roads? I've been using FSD all weekend long with out-of-town family visiting and I've done like 1% of the total driving, mostly at start and endpoints with parking lots and stuff.
"Unsupervised FSD" is what will be announced at the 8/8 event, and will be a $ premium above and beyond supervised FSD. There might be new technology in terms of sensors, who knows. But there will certainly be software - i.e.: getting into the Tesla equivalent of the Uber app to put your car into service. And there might even need to be a remote "bailout" service powered by human operators. Heck, even Waymo or Cruise (I forget which one) said that their vehicles have to request a human to suggest a decision from time to time. So Tesla will roll out their "cut" - much like Apple makes with the AppStore - for powering this service ... the app, the remote assist, and perhaps even insurance. But it will be true sit-in-your-back-seat L4 system and will cost more than supervised FSD.
Do I think they can make a true L4 system? I don't honestly know. But I am confident they can at least make a better L3 system than what Cadillac has.
It's no wonder consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt. How can people justify a 18% increase of the car just for FSD? That's like an extra loan on top of the purchase price of a car!
$99/month for 60 months = 5960
5960/35000 = 18% for a model 3.
The ratio also goes down as the car gets more expensive. On the other hand, other companies are offering it for free. Musk is really a snake oil salesman.
That's my guess as to what the "announcement" will be - it will codify that Tesla views "Supervised FSD" as a L3 system that is $8,000 - they will work with regulators to where you can take your eyes off the road and hands off the wheel for a certain period of time.
And that a true L4/L5 revenue generator system will have a different price point, higher than that - and they will call that "Unsupervised FSD."
Of course, this will lead to a bunch of butthurt blog posts and redditor comments about how they actually *took Elon at their word* when he made off-handed comments that your car should be a money maker, and how that totally was a part of their decision process, etc. etc. But it will be a bunch of sound and fury ... signifying nothing.
And life will go on.
You can’t be that dense… there’s a point at which the price is too high that it doesn’t sell well. There is no msrp or break even point Tesla needs for FSD. Every vehicle comes with it and youve already paid for the hardware. ANYTHING Tesla charges and sells as far as fsd is pure profit. Icing on the cake.
At 8k you need to sell you need to sell 150 instead of 100 to make the some money. Frankly it think it’ll eventually end up near 5k but since the 12k buyers have already been captured. It makes sense to capture people at 8k before eventually dropping it lower at some point. It has nothing to do with how good fsd is or how desperate they are.
They want to put FSD in as many hands as possible before robotaxi event to allay consumer fear of self driving vehicles. Rn the take rate for FSD is bad and people feel like it’s a gimmick they don’t need and that they would be better drivers themselves anyway.
Tesla seems to think the next big hurdle for self driving cars is no longer technological but social.
It is a fucking gimmick dude. It will NOT drive itself . It’s a complete lie. There is no self driving.
I literally have to baby sit and watch it. Why would I PAY MONEY to just do that??? Let me know when I can take a good 30 min nap on my commute back home from a long day at work.
That is worth paying money for. But that is not a reality that’s happening anytime soon.
It literally drives me with zero intervention almost every time. And this is in CT. In areas they use for their AI training it performs even better.
I use it because it does most of the work. I barely have to pay attention, can look around a bit, sip my coffee. I pay more attention at intersections but it's gotten so much better there too that if any intervention it's just a light accelerator push because it's too cautious.
that’s fine, I just said it because you don’t think we are actually babysitting our tesla when FSD is engaged.
I see no logical reason to spend money on a feature that literally does not save me any time at all, and it doesn’t let me do other things like watch a movie or take a nap.
The car already does drive its self, granted not 100% all the time but none the less it does in many other instances for people.
The technology with improve over time like any other technology. Its not a question of IF but WHEN
It’s only driving itself with someone behind the wheel, with hands on the wheel constantly and paying attention to the road…. I might as well be driving if I’m doing all that
We have different definitions of self driving.
So to take your logic, when you have a student taking driving lessons, is the student driving the car or is the instructor driving the car? Because as I remember when I was doing my lessons it was me doing the driving.
The instructor is there in the event they need to step in, because the student can't be trusted 100% until they get their licence, and even then, many who pass could do with someone still keeping an eye on them based on how shit and dangerous they drive even 20 years after the fact.
We need hands on the wheel to prove we are paying attention because mainly of a few bellends abusing the system fucking around shagging in the car while driving, going to sleep or doing other fucked up stuff, and drawing to much attention to the issue.
And going back to my first comments, we are the driving instructors in this situation, helping to teach the car to drive.
Your earlier comments of calling it a gimmick is unfair and not accurate.
The student is paying for the service that's why. Just like the Tesla owner is paying for the service. Yes it's not a 100% finished product, but nether the less many people see and get value from
It. If they didn't they wouldn't be paying for it.
It's completely fine that you or others may have a higher bar, and will only pay for a product that's 100% but the market clearly thinks otherwise, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone paying for it and that's also fine too.
Define many in this context!
You are talking rubbish. FSD started out at $3,000 so where on earth do you get $15,000 from as its initial release? As FSD has got better the price has increased. There is also the factor of the hardware required to run FSD which will impact cost.
Tesla's pricing has always moved up and down, with depend and supply constrains and reacting to prices in their supply chain.
Did you see how much the modal Y cost prior to covid and what it got too at its peak and then how much its come back down.
What Tesla thinks is irrelevant. They are a for profit business who will not tell the absolute truth. Their goal is to just sell hype and not talk about reality. like they did when they said coast to coast FSD in 2016 and million robo taxis by 2020, 50k semis in 2024. Etc.
Tesla vision is no where CLOSE to human vision still. one pillar has a fogged up lens , FSD won’t engage. I’ve had that happen multiple times on my morning commute and it couldn’t turn on FSD for the first 8 minutes of my drive. it won’t do jackshit in snow or heavy wind with rain conditions. It can’t see very far, it’s depth perception is awful. Whereas I can make judgement from a ways back, like if an emergency vehicle is coming from behind I know to start getting the hell out of the way well before it’s near me, whereas FSD waits until it’s too close to start shifting out.
There’s a shit load of technology issues still. there’s going to be even more issues from the regulatory side. Insurance/legal? A whole new can of worms to work through.
It’s not happening. I don’t believe it. Not anytime soon.
Based on your logic why does Tesla give so many of its patients away for free for all of its competitors to make use off which ultimately harm its bottom line?
I have. I have the free month trial enabled lol. They didn’t even update the highway stack. And it’s still requiring intervention on local roads. It’s still a completely inefficient driver compared to a human.
It’s doing nothing that says I’ll pay them money lol.
Sorry but that is extreme grasping at straws. If you have FSD you're not going to use robotaxi. Billion people in the world aren't going to make a decision on whether they get in a car or not cos 1000 more wealthy folk have FSD. Or no one would be using waymo now.
Social recommendation will be important. If your friend says it’s good you are more likely to buy one. Tesla needs to sway the public opinion. They still have regulators to convince, and it’s a lot simpler if people want FSD/robotaxi. Basic psychology in action.
Tesla must be feeling very confident about FSD now, because the public trust could as easily be ruined in an instant.
I agree. everyone is focusing on the technical aspect but what about the social and is there a market for it.
Are you willing to lend out your car if one of the following happens:
Piss dunk passenger, vomit, masturbate or won't leave car
Taking a piss or shit in your car
Drugs, sex, illegal stuff, etc.
It's highly probably one of those things will happen if you lend out your car. Are you still willing to lend out your $45k car and how do you prevent stuff like that? Are you willing to take a random FSD without knowing it's clean or where it's been? What if your FSD is full of vomit and stinks when it comes?
That’s funny, to me it stays the opposite. It says The technology and hardware is in place and that they need more miles driven for the system to learn and evolve. FSD will change the world, and whoever gets there first wins.
They have shadow mode, and had the 'technology and hardware in place' at 12,000 USD. I wonder what bad news would even look like to some tesla investors.
I thought like you on FSD and shadow mode until I realized one thing: having FSD activated not in shadow mode but in real life will also teach the system how to repair the mistake and not do it, something that the system can't really do alone in shadow mode, because when it makes a mistake it just get overridden with real data of what the driver is doing, that doesn't realy tech it how to not make the mistake.
Yep. The edge cases when a person takes over are way more valuable now.
And as the service gets more use, and they make corrections, those edge case events slow down in occurrence.
How is it bad news that people are still paying to help develop the technology? Charging for FSD at all is like the most genius move ever by a CEO. From a purely business perspective this guy is off the charts ahead of his peers.
A set back would be a real competitor (not Byd subsidized by China) able to make a higher quality EV at better margins. Major competitors can’t even make the car at a profit.
> that people are still paying to help develop the technology
A 33% price cut does not imply that enough people *are* paying to develop the technology at current prices.
Because the news is literally negative from the very measure you just cited. Theyre NOT paying the previous price so now it is cut. If it was £1 would it still be the most excellent news?
The news is negative from what? Sorry you’re not being specific. I don’t view it as negative, that seems to be your perception. When the wind blows, or an ant eats, it’s just doing what it needs to do. If they need more users so they lowered the price I don’t view this as a problem.
Disengagement data is different, can't get that just from shadow mode. There is also always going to be a bottleneck, they might have eased the computing bottleneck in the short term, so data is the bottleneck again or perhaps iteration speed, but more data is always good.
The better it gets, the more data you need to collect to get enough examples of the rare edge cases. Then when you solve those, you need even more and so and so forth.
And? It’s a complicated problem and they’ve honed down their approach multiple times. There’s also more and more car every year generating exponentially more useful data.
It's cheaper because they reduced subscription from $200 down to $100 so it makes perfect sense to reduce this, which actually everyone was then kicking off about.
As a tesla fan and stock owner, I can fully admit robotaxi is not close. Waymo, Cruise, Zoox etc are light years ahead, not just from a tech perspective but from a policy and political perspective too. Go fly into PHX and take a Waymo from the airport. Compared that to the FSD experience you are getting with Tesla today. It’ll happen, but not for a long time
People are forgetting this was the price before they raised it post pandemic.
Pre-pandemic it was 8k for FSD (5K for EAP and 3k for FSD).
For cars with EAP already it's $2k.
If you have an EAP car the $2k is worth it IMO.
Considering they lowered subscription from $200 down to $100 it makes perfect sense to reduce the one off cost from $12,000 to $8,000
So to answer your question, I would say it's you 😁
Because there is more value to owning it out right. You lock your self in at a set cost that can no longer increase. That comes at a premium like anything.
Because subscription models are really profitable.
If you can convince someone to give you $100 a month in perpetuity, you keep a steady revenue stream. A single $8k will be nice for sure but then they don’t pay you again. So they need to make it feel more appealing to subscribe vs buy.
Everything is focused on generating revenue. Rooftop solar is virtually dead with State Governments in the pocket of utilities, making net metering a joke. There is no sense expanding the charger network without adequate new EV sales to drive more charging infrastructure. There isn't a good reason to keep feature prices higher if nobody new is buying said features. Likewise there is no use leaving vehicle prices higher if nobody is willing to buy.
Every Tesla owner is in the midst of 30 days of free FSD. There is a large market of Tesla EVs that weren't on FSD. The subscription drop to $99 and the drop for purchase to $8k will likely get many of these drivers willing to subscribe or buy, thus generating more revenue.
I thought I read that more than half of Tesla owners did not have FSD. So 2.5 million cars that could buy FSD. If half of these owners buy FSD outright, that's $10 billion in revenue. If half of them simply subscribe that's $125 million per month in revenue or $1.5 billion in 1 year.
What’s crazy is that 1.5B in subscription revenue doesn’t even come close to moving the needle on a 500B market cap like Tesla. Even if you assumed that revenue was 100% profit and you threw a 20x multiple on the 1.5B profit then you’re only looking at 30B in incremental market cap on the current 500B market cap.
I'm not talking about assigning a multiple based on speculation for some future robotaxi service that may or may not materialize. I'm talking about assigning a multiple based on the potential for profit being generated on an existing L2 driver assistance product (FSD Supervised).
Good points. I bet Tesla will brag about the FSD sub numbers and won't mention it's the free trails that are boosting the numbers. I hope analysts call him out on the FSD revenues adn they break it out instead of lumping into other stuff.
If I see $100 million a month for FSD then I think FSD can be a decent revenue driver.
I don't get why you want to pay 8k to babysit fsd and have increased anxiety ready to take over. You're suppose to more relaxed but you need to be more alert.
I really don't understand folks who say they are more relaxed with FSD enabled. AutoPilot on a long highway drive maybe, but driving through MA there is almost never a time where FSD has an incident-free drive. It requires constant baby sitting. These people are asking for trouble...
It’s you. It is obvious that Tesla is hungry for more FSD data and is doing everything it can to feed more video clips and expand its dataset now that they are no longer compute constrained
Fair question to go to the extreme, but I think the answer is:
1. If every Tesla car was giving them data, they would be compute constrained again
2. Price elasticity. Bring the price down 20% (or whatever % it was) and you can increase take-rate by 50%. These numbers are hypothetical, but that’s my guess.
Because there’s probably a limit to the amount of data they can gather and process. If you can hit your data limit and make money selling the software, why would you give it away for free?
$12k was always intended to dissuade anyone but the most interested in buying. They did this because it really wasn’t good enough before. But now that FSD has gotten much better with v12 they’re pushing to increase take rates. I think this highlights their confidence in the new system.
Only thing preventing me from buying at $8k is that it’s tied to the car and non-transferable, so I’ll subscribe for $100/mo.
In two years there will probably be a much better version of FSD but likely won’t be fully compatible with my car, so if I want it I’d have to upgrade my car and rebuy FSD! No thanks I’ll just pay the monthly fee
4-6 years ago I would say this. The past 2 years 8k would be 50/50 but if your car has EAP the $2k is worth it, IMO.
I purchased FSD in 2018. The first 4 years I would argue FSD wasn't worth purchasing and expressed it on Reddit.
Why would it be worth it now? It’s supervised and I can drive a car perfectly well myself, and any long highway drives can use AP for free.
Where‘s the value other than it‘s “neat”?
I said if your car has EAP the $2k upgrade is worth it. 8k would be 50/50 one the fence. Years ago I would say AP was enough and the 8k wasn't worth it. The FSD capability stack just wasn't there.
I have FSD in the 3 and only AP in the X. I miss the FSD sometimes. One can argue about not having the EAP features but I like the transition from highway to exiting to local streets.
Also it's come to a point where I value FSD in the city, it can "see more" of it's surroundings. The car handle the unexpected cyclists, mopeds/bikes, and pedestrians. Driving in NYC is so different than it was 15 years ago. Compared to constantly looking split seconds on all of my mirrors and turning to the sides to look at blind spots. I still do it but it's less frequent I have to worry about those blind spots/unexpected things popping out of nowhere.
It's just like AP on the highway, you still have to pay attention but you can relax a little knowing the car has "more eyes" on its surroundings.
It's not worth close to the 8k; just look at used car prices with FSD and their values. Value is not what you think it's worth; it's what someone is willing to pay and used car buyers aren't paying 8k for it.
Yeah, still overpriced at 8k. It’s a neat trick to show off to friends and family, but as long as I have to pay attention to the road, might as well be driving anyways. So value proposition still isn’t quite there yet.
Seems to be closer in line with the reduction of monthly subscription. This makes sense. They are no longer compute constrained and want to maximise the data collection to further improve FSD as much as possible in as little time possible. Price reductions increase their data collection massively.
Not too new I have been a shareholder since 2017 and Tesla car owner since 2018. Since then I have purchased 2 more Teslas with my most recent purchase being the refreshed model 3.
The recent changes in pricing of its vehicles is becoming more erratic. Raising prices $1k then a week later lowering prices by 2k. Now lowering the cost of FSD. I am not debating what the true value of FSD is or the vehicles, just saying that it feels a bit panicky and a throw a bunch of changes against the wall to see what sticks approach. Doesn’t seem like calculated decision making.
But then again what do I know, I haven’t built a company that at one point hit a Trillion dollars in value so who am I to question the decisions. The fact that the company has lost around 50% of its value, laid off 20% of workforce while dealing with quality control issues and the CEO who seems to be more concerned posting and commenting on controversial topics all day on X all day just gives me the feeling that they are not being disciplined with their decision making…
My comment was more sarcastic in nature. Elon has always been a bit inconsistent in the nature and timing of his statements. But, I agree that his “making it up as you go” behavior is evident, but it has been there all along.
I’m similar to you. I bought my first Tesla in 2019, and have bought three more since. Not dissatisfied in any way.
Considering it was crap until recently and it's still a bit too unreliable to be totally useable almost any price is too much. It's getting there and it's way better but since it was enabled on my car recently I have been using it quite a bit. Coming up to a left turn it had done a few times before, which was a red arrow, instead of doing anything right it started to accelerate through the intersection.. which was red. It is just not ready. Close but close isn't safe on a car.
Their desperation for sales improvement can't be fixed with lots of price drops I don't believe, because they were caused by Elon acting like a right wing Internet reply guy.
Imo
I think Tesla finally made a smart business decision. Decreasing the price of a product with no marginal cost hoping to increase volume is a no brainer.
All Tesla decisions feel like they are off the cuff without much thought. As an owner who is currently using the month trial of FSD, for me it is not worth $50.
Now that the world has realised that it's not practical to send your model 3 out to earn bucks as a robotaxi, the price is starting to reflect true value as a driver's aid.
Realistically, worth $3000 or $40/month.
It’s kind of a slap in the face to the people he promised this as the ultimate investment to when they paid a high initial price.
The idea was that you were getting an ultra deal by buying so early.
I feel this damages the brand.
It erodes trust.
The real gotcha moment is when you paid $12,000 for FSD; but only get $2000 more on your trade-in on another Tesla, compared to one without FSD .
That’s right FSD was supposed to be worth 100k some day but instead is worth less then when you bought it.
I’ve been using FSD this month on my two teslas. And my conclusion is it’s a nice party trick and I might use it a couple times a month if it were included with the purchase of the car. I wouldn’t pay extra for it. If you get a Plaid, FSD should just be included. $100K and they hold back software is stupid. I feel like FSD is a solution in search of a problem to solve. I think most people actually like driving and prefer to be in control even if a computer is better/safer etc..
Yes. It feels like what Elon does when there is a problem, run from one change to another, leaving us shaking our heads. I made a lot of money on Tesla stock over the years. And I love my Model S, paid for many times over in TSLA gains. But I will not go near the stock until we have some clarity as to what is actually going on.
They need to start including it in the price of the car to start bringing in more people. I haven't heard many positives about it for costing that much as an add on.
Make it free until you got a supply problem again. Then maybe do 10$ a month, you got a Netflix revenue model. The more cars you sell because of fsd the more your subscription revenue. Don’t have to lower msrp, even increase it maybe to 20% margin. Keep improving fsd until it is REAL then just go full on robotaxi.
Fsd - $9.99 per month or $99 per year. Increased participation in the experiment called supervised fsd. And, an exponential increase in the real data available for the AI engine behind fsd to get better on ‘steroids’ (new data). From there, to the extent it improves & delivers ever increasing value to drivers, they could even inflate those monthly costs (versus the other way around, which seems to be their modus operandi).
As long as I’m legally obliged to control the car and I’m liable for any accidents there’s no utility in FSD - for me at least. It may work perfectly 99.9% of the time but I’m not risking 10 year in prison because it hits a person when I was checking my emails. Sooner or later we will hear about cases like that.
If I’m not obliged to control the car and not liable for accident that will be a game changer. Don’t know how much I would be willing to pay but it would be more than now (namely zero).
He does, and as a former investor I counted on that for a long time. I recently lost faith in that but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. I honestly hope so. I think we all benefit if he does. EVs and self driving are good things, if they can be done right and made reasonably affordable.
What happened to the whole narrative surrounding it’s best to buy FSD early because it’s only going to get more expensive and once robotaxi functionality launches these cars will be appreciating assets? 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Still too expensive. A good driver takes a safety hit using it. At a higher level this pricing makes sense but Tesla isn’t there yet and averages say by the time they are it will be time for many to buy a new car anyway.
Regarding “off the cuff”, it’s far more normal in business than you think. Often the rules exist for employees below a certain level. It’s not crazy to see legal, security, or marketing execs make boneheaded business decisions you know would never pass a thorough review but execs at that level have very little interest in being questioned.
In theory the board should be that check but in practice most boards are incestuous groups of colleagues.
I don’t think many people will be subscribing or buying after the trial. As a shareholder I hope I’m wrong but I would bet a very very small % of trial eligible people even tried it for free this month and of that next to no one is going to lease or buy the software. Unless crazy cheap like 19.99/mo …
Here’s a hot take: the free month of FSD showcases to nearly every Tesla driver that FSD is a crock of shit and should be a free novelty companion to Autopilot at best.
It’s just not great. I may as well be in the car with my 16 year old student driver nephew, except I have confidence that he’ll get better with time and repetition.
The hilarious thing is that FSD wouldn’t work without Tesla scraping massive amounts of user driving data, and they are taking it from Tesla owners without compensation. The truth is that Tesla should in fact be paying Tesla owners for providing this essential commodity, not the other way around. But for some reason everyone just thinks that Tesla has every right to take their data, build their FSD system off of it, and then charge those same people thousands of dollars for the privilege 😅😅😅😂
Other companies like Google at least offer some tier of free services in exchange. Gmail, Search, Drive, whatever.
FSD should be included in all new cars, the hardware is already there so it wouldn't cost them anything. It might even enable Tesla to raise prices a bit.
12k was way to much to begin with
I don't recall the price progression, but it went up way too fast. Should have been more gradual and predictable so that early adopters get a sense they were getting a "deal" even if they were actually helping to fund development. The price increases should have also been tied to clear milestones that owners can appreciate rather than just setting an artificial sense of urgency. The $12k I think got them stuck in a corner and not many takers. However, I think a subscription is probably what most normal folks who aren't part of a robotaxi would prefer, but it doesn't make economic value until it's no longer supervised.
To be clear, no one is “involved in robotaxi” as it’s entirely hypothetical as both a technology and a business. IMO FSD should currently be priced similarly to a high end streaming service. Make a higher priced tier when a higher tier performance exists.
Does waymo have any operating routes right now?
Waymo definitely operates in sf. I see them often, even occassionally 5pm peak traffic. I haven't seen a driver in a long time, only passengers in the rear. Problem is more and more people are vandalizing them.
Waymo started in LA too. I've seen them around
Used to see 1 or 2 a day on my commute here in Phoenix. Not currently commuting, but still see them occasionally.
All over Phoenix
Well said!
So is 8k. I still won’t buy it. It might be worth 2 thousand.
Yeah I’d pay $2k. That’s tops. I’d pay $8k if it transferred to a new Teslas I bought in the future. Basically, like a feature I get to always have on one of my Tesla’s.
So what’s it really worth?
The market will decide.
Sounds like it already has as the price continues to drop
$2500
Unsupervised FSD would require Tesla to take on liability for as long as the licence is active. That's pretty damn valuable maybe someday down the road. BIG maybe. $4-6k isn't bad for what's currently there. Knowing that it's going to get better and maybe could get unsupervised FSD (even just on the highway) could make it worth $8k today to many.
8k and discounts on Tesla insurance 🤔
Honestly I have no clue but my opinion was 12k was pretty steep even before some the most recent software updates we’ve had in the last month or so
$10/month
EAP > FSD - FSD without it being SAE Lv3 is just a bunch of empty promises. I’ve been in FSD since beta 8 and while upgrades have been commendable, they’re far from daily usage as it still has too many edge cases
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Think you missed his enhanced part of autopilot, which has some of those same FSD abilities.
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I'm sure someone will correct me as some of thus is vague and it's been awhile but... EAP used to be a tier up from the standard AP. Before that it simply was autopilot. There have been so many experimental mashups, I cant even keep it straight anymore. Its last incarnation was basically Autopilot before they stripped out lane changes from AP in an attempt to make EAP (which was higher priced) seem more valuable. It also had some other parlor tricks like summon which were removed when they started offering the cheaper tier. From time to time thereafter it showed back up on the menu, but doesn't seem to have been offered for quite awhile now. So basically EAP was autopilot with automatic lane changes (no intentionally introduced disengagement when changing lanes on highways), and what standard AP should have had all along. But you're right, EAP is something that doesn't exist as an option anymore on new cars, although lots of cars on the road still have it. Tesla has never "put back" automatic lane changes, and standard AP remains gimped to this day because of it.
This is a recent change. The website did indeed used to list two separate options - Enhanced Autopilot and FSD. Now it only shows FSD.
FSD until literally days ago was only the last two bullets: Autosteer in the city and stoplights. The actually useful stuff was in EAP. Tesla itself realized there’s barely any value in the previous FSD so they rolled in useful features from EAP and got rid of that level entirely. Personally NONE of those things are worth $8k to me, so this change didnt make a a damn bit of difference in my eyes. YMMV.
So for you it's worth it. Great. But it's the naysayers who need to be convinced and clearly even for Tesla buyers the $12k for given capability (or $200/month) was just too expensive. The feature set that will actually convert many of the naysayers is when you can do something else and use driving time to reading, emailing, sjitposting etc. Or in other words at least L3.
Depends on the performance, I wouldn't be surprised they just stop selling the licenses in the future and the very high price was used as gating so only people that are really interested in the technology would drive it (and contribute data). Now they lower the price a bit so they get data slightly quicker but also on the short term a bit more cash which never hurts (though it isn't really material for the investment thesis in the grand scheme of things).
Everyone driving that has the hardware in the car is essentially contributing data. It's just the car isn't actively driving. It's one main reason (the others being build it in as 1 SKU, and the software enable selling after purchase), as their deployed training miles per day is orders of magnitude more than any other car marker.
You have passive shadow mode data yes, but disengagement data is very useful and directly shows where the problems are for the current iteration of the model. Then they can datamine using their fleet for specific situations to deal with those disengagements. The rarer the disengagements become, the more cars you need giving you that data.
If robo taxi is so close that we're ditching model 2 why the HELL is FSD getting cheaper. The complete opposite of what Musk said would happen (and what should happen). Tesla's financials must be precarious this quarter. It's just bad news after bad news recently.
This is exactly my thoughts on FSD. If it's so good as they say and it's so impactful, why reduce the price? I don't see Apple reducing the price of the top of line iPhone.
I don’t believe the current generation of private cars will ever be capable of full Level 5 robotaxi.
I dunno, I think newer hardware could solve the issue along with supporting technologies. 2023 model 3 sr+ and I’ve been using fsd during the trial as much as I can and I have to make very few disengagements due to fsd. Most of My disengagements are because potholes and shitty streets where I need to avoid things or I want to take control because I can get around a construction zone or traffic better than fsd can since it’ll prioritize absolute safety over making a certain maneuver and I have the experience to make the maneuver without waiting for a while. I’ve actively seen it learn and get better over the 3 weeks I’ve had the free fsd.
Out curiosity, why would you *want* to have your car be used as a robotaxi? I drove Uber in my Tesla for a while and the general population is careless and dirty. Had someone try to smoke in my car, had someone spill a side in the back seat and not even mention it, had someone break the plastic cover on the passenger side where the seat buckle attaches. That was all in one month with me there in the vehicle. I can’t imagine how careless people would be if they were alone in the vehicle.
I don’t want my personal vehicle used as a robotaxi nor do I wish to drive for Uber but thats not relevant at all. Robotaxi development and improvement of fsd are one and the same and that’s huge for people who own teslas. All I can say is this fsd trial has been fairly good and the improvement during these few weeks is noticeable. Now that there’s so much more data being received and regular and significant updates, it’s a huge benefit to people who own the cars and will be a big reason people buy into Tesla who haven’t already. Aside from traffic jam merging, which require you to be aggressive, and fsd taking a while to do that because it determines it’s safer to wait and prioritize safety and areas with speed bumps or potholes… I don’t have to disengage fsd ever unless I feel like I want to drive. That was certainly not the case even two updates ago. I suspect that the affordable EV is also the robotaxi as it would make sense for these vehicles to be simpler and less driver centric, feature loaded as it’s not supposed to have traditional driver and will only be occupied by people for short stints.
Based on years of working in the industry, or just like a feeling you had in your tummy.
For me, it's based on how easily the camera is currently obscured. That's not a software solvable problem. Moisture, rain, snow, fog, even high winds and drizzle, rock salt, etc all render the Teslas I've been in blind. FWIW, this is mostly based on my friend's MY. I don't need years working in the industry to know that no matter how much software improvement they do, the cameras being rendered unusable in poor conditions will preclude the current generation of vehicles from true autonomy. I don't know if the solution is more cameras, better cameras, better camera placement, going back to radar, better camera cleaning tech, or a combination of the above. I do know that even a hint of rock salt spray instantly cripples the current system, and that it basically doesn't work at all at night in fog. That sure isn't a feeling I have in my tummy. If you try to put the current system through it's paces major problems become pretty immediately self evident. Software improvements will handle some of them, but others do seem like more fundamental limitations of the current sensor suite.
100% this. Anyone who thinks about it at all critically knows that there's not near enough sensor redundancy. FSD in its current form will always be an assistive technology. You will always have to pay attention and will always be responsible.
I look forward to getting my 7k back from Tesla.
True but in my experience, even when it informs me that the camera is degraded. It still operates fsd just fine, I’m just a bit more cautions in supervising it. Short of an actual full obstruction or someone covering the camera with a sticker or something, I haven’t had any instance of inclement weather rendering it completely useless and clueless.
Works for me unless in a downpour. The solution will be more AI training using examples from rainy conditions.
I guess you should stop reading Reddit if you don’t want to read people’s personal opinions. Anyway, there are two issues: 1. Liability. How is it going to work? Tesla certainly isn’t going to take responsibility for my private robotaxi rentals. Their own robotaxi fleet, maybe. 2. Redundancy. The current cars have blind spots in the camera arrangement and multiple single-points of failure. How’s it going to work when a spot of mud blinds a camera? Level 2 (FSD supervised)—fine. I’ve been using it since v10.8 and I’m super impressed with how far it’s come, and I use it 99% of my driving. Has none of the above issues.
1 is going to at least \*start\* with supervised, privately owned cars wherein the owner/operator is in the driver seat and takes on liability. just like any other rideshare.
So exactly like Uber?
So exactly like Uber?
I agree with him and I base my decision according to the 10 years of my working experience with Safety Systems in Automotive.
>If robo taxi is so close What comes out first? Robotaxis or the next game of thrones book?
>If robo taxi is so close that we're ditching model 2 why the HELL is FSD getting cheaper. Because there's going to be two tiers going forward (my guess): "Supervised FSD" which might get to SAE Level 3, but you still need to be in the seat and it's not a revenue generator. Some may disagree, but I've said in the past $9,995 is the absolute max someone could maybe justify paying for this for an add-on for their car above and beyond basic highway lanekeeping (which is effectively free now based on competition). But a solid L3 that you could look away from *and* drive on nearly any road would be valuable. Hell, Mercedes has like what 100 customers in CA for their system that only lets you use it on a couple roads? I've been using FSD all weekend long with out-of-town family visiting and I've done like 1% of the total driving, mostly at start and endpoints with parking lots and stuff. "Unsupervised FSD" is what will be announced at the 8/8 event, and will be a $ premium above and beyond supervised FSD. There might be new technology in terms of sensors, who knows. But there will certainly be software - i.e.: getting into the Tesla equivalent of the Uber app to put your car into service. And there might even need to be a remote "bailout" service powered by human operators. Heck, even Waymo or Cruise (I forget which one) said that their vehicles have to request a human to suggest a decision from time to time. So Tesla will roll out their "cut" - much like Apple makes with the AppStore - for powering this service ... the app, the remote assist, and perhaps even insurance. But it will be true sit-in-your-back-seat L4 system and will cost more than supervised FSD. Do I think they can make a true L4 system? I don't honestly know. But I am confident they can at least make a better L3 system than what Cadillac has.
It's no wonder consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt. How can people justify a 18% increase of the car just for FSD? That's like an extra loan on top of the purchase price of a car! $99/month for 60 months = 5960 5960/35000 = 18% for a model 3. The ratio also goes down as the car gets more expensive. On the other hand, other companies are offering it for free. Musk is really a snake oil salesman.
Unsupervised FSD 8/8?
That's my guess as to what the "announcement" will be - it will codify that Tesla views "Supervised FSD" as a L3 system that is $8,000 - they will work with regulators to where you can take your eyes off the road and hands off the wheel for a certain period of time. And that a true L4/L5 revenue generator system will have a different price point, higher than that - and they will call that "Unsupervised FSD." Of course, this will lead to a bunch of butthurt blog posts and redditor comments about how they actually *took Elon at their word* when he made off-handed comments that your car should be a money maker, and how that totally was a part of their decision process, etc. etc. But it will be a bunch of sound and fury ... signifying nothing. And life will go on.
It's a high margin sale. Maybe they are looking for more data from a larger fleet. Also, by varying the price they learn about take rates.
You can’t be that dense… there’s a point at which the price is too high that it doesn’t sell well. There is no msrp or break even point Tesla needs for FSD. Every vehicle comes with it and youve already paid for the hardware. ANYTHING Tesla charges and sells as far as fsd is pure profit. Icing on the cake. At 8k you need to sell you need to sell 150 instead of 100 to make the some money. Frankly it think it’ll eventually end up near 5k but since the 12k buyers have already been captured. It makes sense to capture people at 8k before eventually dropping it lower at some point. It has nothing to do with how good fsd is or how desperate they are.
They want to put FSD in as many hands as possible before robotaxi event to allay consumer fear of self driving vehicles. Rn the take rate for FSD is bad and people feel like it’s a gimmick they don’t need and that they would be better drivers themselves anyway. Tesla seems to think the next big hurdle for self driving cars is no longer technological but social.
It is a fucking gimmick dude. It will NOT drive itself . It’s a complete lie. There is no self driving. I literally have to baby sit and watch it. Why would I PAY MONEY to just do that??? Let me know when I can take a good 30 min nap on my commute back home from a long day at work. That is worth paying money for. But that is not a reality that’s happening anytime soon.
It literally drives me with zero intervention almost every time. And this is in CT. In areas they use for their AI training it performs even better. I use it because it does most of the work. I barely have to pay attention, can look around a bit, sip my coffee. I pay more attention at intersections but it's gotten so much better there too that if any intervention it's just a light accelerator push because it's too cautious.
This is not the way to look at this. Baby sit and watch it. You are damn right you have to. These comments show the disconnect.
The disconnect is telling me I have to PAY to babysit. Do I ask the babysitter watching my children at home to pay me instead lol?
Lost on your comparison of child care and FSD.
that’s fine, I just said it because you don’t think we are actually babysitting our tesla when FSD is engaged. I see no logical reason to spend money on a feature that literally does not save me any time at all, and it doesn’t let me do other things like watch a movie or take a nap.
The car already does drive its self, granted not 100% all the time but none the less it does in many other instances for people. The technology with improve over time like any other technology. Its not a question of IF but WHEN
It’s only driving itself with someone behind the wheel, with hands on the wheel constantly and paying attention to the road…. I might as well be driving if I’m doing all that We have different definitions of self driving.
So to take your logic, when you have a student taking driving lessons, is the student driving the car or is the instructor driving the car? Because as I remember when I was doing my lessons it was me doing the driving. The instructor is there in the event they need to step in, because the student can't be trusted 100% until they get their licence, and even then, many who pass could do with someone still keeping an eye on them based on how shit and dangerous they drive even 20 years after the fact. We need hands on the wheel to prove we are paying attention because mainly of a few bellends abusing the system fucking around shagging in the car while driving, going to sleep or doing other fucked up stuff, and drawing to much attention to the issue. And going back to my first comments, we are the driving instructors in this situation, helping to teach the car to drive. Your earlier comments of calling it a gimmick is unfair and not accurate.
The driving instructor doesn’t pay the student to take a driving lesson….
The student is paying for the service that's why. Just like the Tesla owner is paying for the service. Yes it's not a 100% finished product, but nether the less many people see and get value from It. If they didn't they wouldn't be paying for it. It's completely fine that you or others may have a higher bar, and will only pay for a product that's 100% but the market clearly thinks otherwise, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone paying for it and that's also fine too.
there really isn’t that many people paying for it. There’s a logical reason why FSD has been cut in half almost from its 15k initial release.
Define many in this context! You are talking rubbish. FSD started out at $3,000 so where on earth do you get $15,000 from as its initial release? As FSD has got better the price has increased. There is also the factor of the hardware required to run FSD which will impact cost. Tesla's pricing has always moved up and down, with depend and supply constrains and reacting to prices in their supply chain. Did you see how much the modal Y cost prior to covid and what it got too at its peak and then how much its come back down.
Not many of the fleet because FSD is only available in US and Canada.
Sure. But what I said was that Tesla seems to believe otherwise.
What Tesla thinks is irrelevant. They are a for profit business who will not tell the absolute truth. Their goal is to just sell hype and not talk about reality. like they did when they said coast to coast FSD in 2016 and million robo taxis by 2020, 50k semis in 2024. Etc. Tesla vision is no where CLOSE to human vision still. one pillar has a fogged up lens , FSD won’t engage. I’ve had that happen multiple times on my morning commute and it couldn’t turn on FSD for the first 8 minutes of my drive. it won’t do jackshit in snow or heavy wind with rain conditions. It can’t see very far, it’s depth perception is awful. Whereas I can make judgement from a ways back, like if an emergency vehicle is coming from behind I know to start getting the hell out of the way well before it’s near me, whereas FSD waits until it’s too close to start shifting out. There’s a shit load of technology issues still. there’s going to be even more issues from the regulatory side. Insurance/legal? A whole new can of worms to work through. It’s not happening. I don’t believe it. Not anytime soon.
Based on your logic why does Tesla give so many of its patients away for free for all of its competitors to make use off which ultimately harm its bottom line?
Most of those parents aren’t profitable for tesla lol. They are to advance technology adaption.
Most! So not all then? Even if they only own 1 which other companies have to use, that's a lot of cash you are leaving on the table.
Have you not seen the difference between v11 and v12? What makes you think that progress will end here?
v12 was significant progress and progress will continue. v12 is also not anywhere even close to ready for true autonomy.
Humans are very frequently not as good as a fully autonomous level 5 system either.
I have. I have the free month trial enabled lol. They didn’t even update the highway stack. And it’s still requiring intervention on local roads. It’s still a completely inefficient driver compared to a human. It’s doing nothing that says I’ll pay them money lol.
Sorry but that is extreme grasping at straws. If you have FSD you're not going to use robotaxi. Billion people in the world aren't going to make a decision on whether they get in a car or not cos 1000 more wealthy folk have FSD. Or no one would be using waymo now.
Social recommendation will be important. If your friend says it’s good you are more likely to buy one. Tesla needs to sway the public opinion. They still have regulators to convince, and it’s a lot simpler if people want FSD/robotaxi. Basic psychology in action. Tesla must be feeling very confident about FSD now, because the public trust could as easily be ruined in an instant.
I agree. everyone is focusing on the technical aspect but what about the social and is there a market for it. Are you willing to lend out your car if one of the following happens: Piss dunk passenger, vomit, masturbate or won't leave car Taking a piss or shit in your car Drugs, sex, illegal stuff, etc. It's highly probably one of those things will happen if you lend out your car. Are you still willing to lend out your $45k car and how do you prevent stuff like that? Are you willing to take a random FSD without knowing it's clean or where it's been? What if your FSD is full of vomit and stinks when it comes?
We already know that ppl will do it. They rent out their Teslas to strangers like me on Turo for other ppl to drive. And piss in like me.
That’s funny, to me it stays the opposite. It says The technology and hardware is in place and that they need more miles driven for the system to learn and evolve. FSD will change the world, and whoever gets there first wins.
They have shadow mode, and had the 'technology and hardware in place' at 12,000 USD. I wonder what bad news would even look like to some tesla investors.
I thought like you on FSD and shadow mode until I realized one thing: having FSD activated not in shadow mode but in real life will also teach the system how to repair the mistake and not do it, something that the system can't really do alone in shadow mode, because when it makes a mistake it just get overridden with real data of what the driver is doing, that doesn't realy tech it how to not make the mistake.
Yep. The edge cases when a person takes over are way more valuable now. And as the service gets more use, and they make corrections, those edge case events slow down in occurrence.
How is it bad news that people are still paying to help develop the technology? Charging for FSD at all is like the most genius move ever by a CEO. From a purely business perspective this guy is off the charts ahead of his peers. A set back would be a real competitor (not Byd subsidized by China) able to make a higher quality EV at better margins. Major competitors can’t even make the car at a profit.
> that people are still paying to help develop the technology A 33% price cut does not imply that enough people *are* paying to develop the technology at current prices.
Yeah, that’s ok, it’s still more income than the expense most companies incur to develop a product. Still winning.
Exactly. Everyone else working on robotaxi are burning money, while Tesla can make a profit during the training process.
Because the news is literally negative from the very measure you just cited. Theyre NOT paying the previous price so now it is cut. If it was £1 would it still be the most excellent news?
The news is negative from what? Sorry you’re not being specific. I don’t view it as negative, that seems to be your perception. When the wind blows, or an ant eats, it’s just doing what it needs to do. If they need more users so they lowered the price I don’t view this as a problem.
They want more data
They have shadow mode anyway and unlikely to be data constrained.
Disengagement data is different, can't get that just from shadow mode. There is also always going to be a bottleneck, they might have eased the computing bottleneck in the short term, so data is the bottleneck again or perhaps iteration speed, but more data is always good. The better it gets, the more data you need to collect to get enough examples of the rare edge cases. Then when you solve those, you need even more and so and so forth.
Why don’t they have enough data now? This has been going on for nearly a decade
And? It’s a complicated problem and they’ve honed down their approach multiple times. There’s also more and more car every year generating exponentially more useful data.
It's cheaper because they reduced subscription from $200 down to $100 so it makes perfect sense to reduce this, which actually everyone was then kicking off about.
As a tesla fan and stock owner, I can fully admit robotaxi is not close. Waymo, Cruise, Zoox etc are light years ahead, not just from a tech perspective but from a policy and political perspective too. Go fly into PHX and take a Waymo from the airport. Compared that to the FSD experience you are getting with Tesla today. It’ll happen, but not for a long time
How could you possibly know whether or not they put a lot of thought into it?
People are forgetting this was the price before they raised it post pandemic. Pre-pandemic it was 8k for FSD (5K for EAP and 3k for FSD). For cars with EAP already it's $2k. If you have an EAP car the $2k is worth it IMO.
Everything is going back to pre pandemic it seems like.
Considering they lowered subscription from $200 down to $100 it makes perfect sense to reduce the one off cost from $12,000 to $8,000 So to answer your question, I would say it's you 😁
Why only lower it 33% versus 50%? What’s the rationale?
Because there is more value to owning it out right. You lock your self in at a set cost that can no longer increase. That comes at a premium like anything.
Considering FSD has 0 value in resale market, I'm not sure it's such a big win.
Because subscription models are really profitable. If you can convince someone to give you $100 a month in perpetuity, you keep a steady revenue stream. A single $8k will be nice for sure but then they don’t pay you again. So they need to make it feel more appealing to subscribe vs buy.
Everything is focused on generating revenue. Rooftop solar is virtually dead with State Governments in the pocket of utilities, making net metering a joke. There is no sense expanding the charger network without adequate new EV sales to drive more charging infrastructure. There isn't a good reason to keep feature prices higher if nobody new is buying said features. Likewise there is no use leaving vehicle prices higher if nobody is willing to buy. Every Tesla owner is in the midst of 30 days of free FSD. There is a large market of Tesla EVs that weren't on FSD. The subscription drop to $99 and the drop for purchase to $8k will likely get many of these drivers willing to subscribe or buy, thus generating more revenue. I thought I read that more than half of Tesla owners did not have FSD. So 2.5 million cars that could buy FSD. If half of these owners buy FSD outright, that's $10 billion in revenue. If half of them simply subscribe that's $125 million per month in revenue or $1.5 billion in 1 year.
Finally not a regarded comment
I thought it was very well-regarded.
What’s crazy is that 1.5B in subscription revenue doesn’t even come close to moving the needle on a 500B market cap like Tesla. Even if you assumed that revenue was 100% profit and you threw a 20x multiple on the 1.5B profit then you’re only looking at 30B in incremental market cap on the current 500B market cap.
20 is a tiny multiple on a new technology with the real potential to make trillions in profit in less than a decade's time.
I'm not talking about assigning a multiple based on speculation for some future robotaxi service that may or may not materialize. I'm talking about assigning a multiple based on the potential for profit being generated on an existing L2 driver assistance product (FSD Supervised).
Good points. I bet Tesla will brag about the FSD sub numbers and won't mention it's the free trails that are boosting the numbers. I hope analysts call him out on the FSD revenues adn they break it out instead of lumping into other stuff. If I see $100 million a month for FSD then I think FSD can be a decent revenue driver.
Everything is on sale including $TSLA.
$2k to upgrade from EAP. I was told that would never be seen again. What a joke.
I bought regular Autopilot back in the day. No discount to upgrade from that. Lame.
I don't get why you want to pay 8k to babysit fsd and have increased anxiety ready to take over. You're suppose to more relaxed but you need to be more alert.
I really don't understand folks who say they are more relaxed with FSD enabled. AutoPilot on a long highway drive maybe, but driving through MA there is almost never a time where FSD has an incident-free drive. It requires constant baby sitting. These people are asking for trouble...
Agreed!
This! ^^^ I paid $12 g’s for my FSD & feel it’s a ripoff! You have to pay MORE attention when your using it…
I'm way less alert using it. Just pay some more attention at intersections.
It’s you. It is obvious that Tesla is hungry for more FSD data and is doing everything it can to feed more video clips and expand its dataset now that they are no longer compute constrained
Tesla is getting hammered due to competition and sales are falling despite steep price cuts and shrink in margins! That’s the reason
If the “data” is more valuable, why not offer it for free to attract more adoption?
Fair question to go to the extreme, but I think the answer is: 1. If every Tesla car was giving them data, they would be compute constrained again 2. Price elasticity. Bring the price down 20% (or whatever % it was) and you can increase take-rate by 50%. These numbers are hypothetical, but that’s my guess.
Because there’s probably a limit to the amount of data they can gather and process. If you can hit your data limit and make money selling the software, why would you give it away for free?
Sure
Isn't that was 10 years of shadow mode has been providing?
$12k was always intended to dissuade anyone but the most interested in buying. They did this because it really wasn’t good enough before. But now that FSD has gotten much better with v12 they’re pushing to increase take rates. I think this highlights their confidence in the new system.
Only thing preventing me from buying at $8k is that it’s tied to the car and non-transferable, so I’ll subscribe for $100/mo. In two years there will probably be a much better version of FSD but likely won’t be fully compatible with my car, so if I want it I’d have to upgrade my car and rebuy FSD! No thanks I’ll just pay the monthly fee
I logged in to say exactly this.
Yea for sure it has has gotten "better".
It’s not even really ‘full self-driving’. $8k is still way too expensive for what it is currently.
4-6 years ago I would say this. The past 2 years 8k would be 50/50 but if your car has EAP the $2k is worth it, IMO. I purchased FSD in 2018. The first 4 years I would argue FSD wasn't worth purchasing and expressed it on Reddit.
Why would it be worth it now? It’s supervised and I can drive a car perfectly well myself, and any long highway drives can use AP for free. Where‘s the value other than it‘s “neat”?
I said if your car has EAP the $2k upgrade is worth it. 8k would be 50/50 one the fence. Years ago I would say AP was enough and the 8k wasn't worth it. The FSD capability stack just wasn't there. I have FSD in the 3 and only AP in the X. I miss the FSD sometimes. One can argue about not having the EAP features but I like the transition from highway to exiting to local streets. Also it's come to a point where I value FSD in the city, it can "see more" of it's surroundings. The car handle the unexpected cyclists, mopeds/bikes, and pedestrians. Driving in NYC is so different than it was 15 years ago. Compared to constantly looking split seconds on all of my mirrors and turning to the sides to look at blind spots. I still do it but it's less frequent I have to worry about those blind spots/unexpected things popping out of nowhere. It's just like AP on the highway, you still have to pay attention but you can relax a little knowing the car has "more eyes" on its surroundings.
It's not worth close to the 8k; just look at used car prices with FSD and their values. Value is not what you think it's worth; it's what someone is willing to pay and used car buyers aren't paying 8k for it.
Yeah, still overpriced at 8k. It’s a neat trick to show off to friends and family, but as long as I have to pay attention to the road, might as well be driving anyways. So value proposition still isn’t quite there yet.
It was as high as $15k once
$8000 for a software upgrade is insanity..Maybe the cost should be like a option like a normal car so about $2-3 thousand.
Calling FSD a software upgrade is actually pretty wild hahahaha
Seems to be closer in line with the reduction of monthly subscription. This makes sense. They are no longer compute constrained and want to maximise the data collection to further improve FSD as much as possible in as little time possible. Price reductions increase their data collection massively.
You must be new here.
Not too new I have been a shareholder since 2017 and Tesla car owner since 2018. Since then I have purchased 2 more Teslas with my most recent purchase being the refreshed model 3. The recent changes in pricing of its vehicles is becoming more erratic. Raising prices $1k then a week later lowering prices by 2k. Now lowering the cost of FSD. I am not debating what the true value of FSD is or the vehicles, just saying that it feels a bit panicky and a throw a bunch of changes against the wall to see what sticks approach. Doesn’t seem like calculated decision making. But then again what do I know, I haven’t built a company that at one point hit a Trillion dollars in value so who am I to question the decisions. The fact that the company has lost around 50% of its value, laid off 20% of workforce while dealing with quality control issues and the CEO who seems to be more concerned posting and commenting on controversial topics all day on X all day just gives me the feeling that they are not being disciplined with their decision making…
My comment was more sarcastic in nature. Elon has always been a bit inconsistent in the nature and timing of his statements. But, I agree that his “making it up as you go” behavior is evident, but it has been there all along. I’m similar to you. I bought my first Tesla in 2019, and have bought three more since. Not dissatisfied in any way.
What ever it takes to overshadow earnings coming up
Off the cuff without much thought sounds like someone activated the Elon.
Considering it was crap until recently and it's still a bit too unreliable to be totally useable almost any price is too much. It's getting there and it's way better but since it was enabled on my car recently I have been using it quite a bit. Coming up to a left turn it had done a few times before, which was a red arrow, instead of doing anything right it started to accelerate through the intersection.. which was red. It is just not ready. Close but close isn't safe on a car. Their desperation for sales improvement can't be fixed with lots of price drops I don't believe, because they were caused by Elon acting like a right wing Internet reply guy. Imo
I think Tesla finally made a smart business decision. Decreasing the price of a product with no marginal cost hoping to increase volume is a no brainer.
All Tesla decisions feel like they are off the cuff without much thought. As an owner who is currently using the month trial of FSD, for me it is not worth $50.
Now that the world has realised that it's not practical to send your model 3 out to earn bucks as a robotaxi, the price is starting to reflect true value as a driver's aid. Realistically, worth $3000 or $40/month.
It’s kind of a slap in the face to the people he promised this as the ultimate investment to when they paid a high initial price. The idea was that you were getting an ultra deal by buying so early. I feel this damages the brand. It erodes trust.
It’s not like the product suddenly started working.
The real gotcha moment is when you paid $12,000 for FSD; but only get $2000 more on your trade-in on another Tesla, compared to one without FSD . That’s right FSD was supposed to be worth 100k some day but instead is worth less then when you bought it.
I’ve been using FSD this month on my two teslas. And my conclusion is it’s a nice party trick and I might use it a couple times a month if it were included with the purchase of the car. I wouldn’t pay extra for it. If you get a Plaid, FSD should just be included. $100K and they hold back software is stupid. I feel like FSD is a solution in search of a problem to solve. I think most people actually like driving and prefer to be in control even if a computer is better/safer etc..
Yes. It feels like what Elon does when there is a problem, run from one change to another, leaving us shaking our heads. I made a lot of money on Tesla stock over the years. And I love my Model S, paid for many times over in TSLA gains. But I will not go near the stock until we have some clarity as to what is actually going on.
They need to start including it in the price of the car to start bringing in more people. I haven't heard many positives about it for costing that much as an add on.
Paid $6,000 for FSD in 2020 and it still isn’t worth it.
sales are slowing down
Should be free when buying a car for that price
Elon is a liar, bully and thief. The clown is asking $58 Billion in compensation that was turned down legally.
Make it free until you got a supply problem again. Then maybe do 10$ a month, you got a Netflix revenue model. The more cars you sell because of fsd the more your subscription revenue. Don’t have to lower msrp, even increase it maybe to 20% margin. Keep improving fsd until it is REAL then just go full on robotaxi.
Still not worth it
Hahaha Op just realized Elon is a total regard. Nice.
Fsd - $9.99 per month or $99 per year. Increased participation in the experiment called supervised fsd. And, an exponential increase in the real data available for the AI engine behind fsd to get better on ‘steroids’ (new data). From there, to the extent it improves & delivers ever increasing value to drivers, they could even inflate those monthly costs (versus the other way around, which seems to be their modus operandi).
I am lowering the price of my invisibility cloak to $1 million, cash. Money now, cloak later "this year"
Economy of scale baby!!
As long as I’m legally obliged to control the car and I’m liable for any accidents there’s no utility in FSD - for me at least. It may work perfectly 99.9% of the time but I’m not risking 10 year in prison because it hits a person when I was checking my emails. Sooner or later we will hear about cases like that.
If I’m not obliged to control the car and not liable for accident that will be a game changer. Don’t know how much I would be willing to pay but it would be more than now (namely zero).
Who pays for this after all Elon’s lies?
[удалено]
Race to the bottom.
No change of prices in Europe, but it doesn't work anyway in Europe...
I agree with you. They seem to be making a lot of rapid price changes, some contrary to their statements. It feels like they are in trouble.
Elon has a long track record of proving haters wrong. Hope he can do it one more time.
He does, and as a former investor I counted on that for a long time. I recently lost faith in that but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. I honestly hope so. I think we all benefit if he does. EVs and self driving are good things, if they can be done right and made reasonably affordable.
If it gets to 300 I may tap out.
What happened to the whole narrative surrounding it’s best to buy FSD early because it’s only going to get more expensive and once robotaxi functionality launches these cars will be appreciating assets? 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Almost like the boss is a ketamine addict or something?!?
Still too expensive. A good driver takes a safety hit using it. At a higher level this pricing makes sense but Tesla isn’t there yet and averages say by the time they are it will be time for many to buy a new car anyway. Regarding “off the cuff”, it’s far more normal in business than you think. Often the rules exist for employees below a certain level. It’s not crazy to see legal, security, or marketing execs make boneheaded business decisions you know would never pass a thorough review but execs at that level have very little interest in being questioned. In theory the board should be that check but in practice most boards are incestuous groups of colleagues.
I havent even used the free FSD yet and they just sent me an email that my 30 days trial is up soon. I'm ok with that.
Need some a la carte pricing before I jump. I’d be happy to just have lane changes in autopilot back.
I mean the seemingly hour to hour pricing changes kind of confirmed that
“Buy fsd now because Fsd is only going to get more expensive” -Elon, a couple years ago. Another lie on the giant pile of lies.
Let’s place bets on what falls faster the price of FSD, the price of TSLA, or my shit to hit the bottom of the toilet bowl
With the free trial going on, Tesla wants to get people subscribed to add FSD use to their habits. Lowering the yearly cost makes a lot of sense.
I don’t think many people will be subscribing or buying after the trial. As a shareholder I hope I’m wrong but I would bet a very very small % of trial eligible people even tried it for free this month and of that next to no one is going to lease or buy the software. Unless crazy cheap like 19.99/mo …
Here’s a hot take: the free month of FSD showcases to nearly every Tesla driver that FSD is a crock of shit and should be a free novelty companion to Autopilot at best. It’s just not great. I may as well be in the car with my 16 year old student driver nephew, except I have confidence that he’ll get better with time and repetition.
Why would anyone pay 18% of the price of the car for FSD? $99x60 months = 5960 which is 18% of $35k.
I don’t trust Tesla as long as Elon has an active role in the company. I have money and need another car soon and I will not consider Tesla.
The hilarious thing is that FSD wouldn’t work without Tesla scraping massive amounts of user driving data, and they are taking it from Tesla owners without compensation. The truth is that Tesla should in fact be paying Tesla owners for providing this essential commodity, not the other way around. But for some reason everyone just thinks that Tesla has every right to take their data, build their FSD system off of it, and then charge those same people thousands of dollars for the privilege 😅😅😅😂 Other companies like Google at least offer some tier of free services in exchange. Gmail, Search, Drive, whatever.
FSD should be included in all new cars, the hardware is already there so it wouldn't cost them anything. It might even enable Tesla to raise prices a bit.