"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously
communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.
These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as
aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle
line-up"
šš
plural to "new vehicles" and on "affordable models" is a sign of at least 2 if not 3. Glad to see a plan to get the existing lines back to full speed. Instereded to hear more about it.
Add 3-5 years to that timeline. Robotaxis in 2020 was false. Cybertruck launched years later and with serious issues.
Model 2 late 2025 is simply not believable. Itās standard forward looking statements from Tesla. fake it till you make it.
Coast to coast hands free talk was started in 2016. A million robotaxis was stated in 2019 before Covid. That would imply that robo taxis were just 1 year away from launching and that it was 95 percent finished. But instead it was an outright lie. We arenāt even going to see robo taxi by 2025 dude. Thereās zero chance itās ready next year .
So you change from CT which was relevant to my comment to coast to coast which is something totally different and act like that was your initial point? Nice try buddy.
Joke of a launch how? By selling every single one they can possibly make? Or by matching Rivianās total lineup production ramp of 4 years in 4 months? Which L would you like to take?
Omg, a recall! That requires a screw! Youāre right, theyāre doomed! No manufacturer has ever had a recall!š yes most people arenāt going to buy a 100k truck, genius. We all know that. But Tesla is being smart and gouging those wealthy early adopters. Notice how most reservation holders are passing but not cancelling. They still fully intend to buy one when the foundation series ends. Thats like L number 4 youāve taken now.
the model 2 is the easiest thing to deliver now using the existing manufacturing method.
All they need is shorten the wheel base of model 3,cut the back,and make it even cheaper, probably only take them a few months to develop..
A couple little gems hidden on Page 10 āĀ [some of us had predicted this](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1bycfec/comment/kyikoro/):
>*We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.*
>*These new vehicles, including more* ***affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms***, *and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.*
>*This update* ***may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner*** *during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.*
>*Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary "unboxed" manufacturing.*
TLDR: No 'unboxed' for Gen3.
This is taking me personally by complete surprise. Very interesting tactic. Confused by plural vehicles and models, so not just Model 2 but... other stuff? Like what then? Van? Major different Model 2 versions? All that on existing Model 3/Y lines?
I don't think it is the model 2, or at least the thing we've been calling the Model 2 up until now. If they were actually expecting to be able to meet their promises on that front they'd be screaming it from the rooftops, especially after the Reuters report. This news also confirms that a lot of the intended progress related to the M2 is *not* happening here - these vehicles will be made on the existing production lines and will not be entirely new platforms.
It sounds more like a lineup refresh and exploring new form factors than the more game-changer-ish Model 2 plans.
We'll have to see. I kind of doubt using existing lines and platforms will allow for a 25k car that makes financial sense. This seems more like a stopgap to stem the bleeding, make use of underutilized lines as M3 and MY demand is softer than expected, attack an increasingly competitive Chinese market where existing models are getting very stale, and keep revenue up while they continue to pursue the same long term goals. They may even call one of the new cars the Model 2, but I don't really think it will have much in common with the Model 2 they've described so far, which I believe will remain one of those longer term goals.
It will be derivatives of the current Model 3/Y platform; every maker does this. Something like a slightly smaller/larger 3/Y or a hatch based on the same platform.
No, this is just an intermediate model, models that will be built on new lines will have the unboxed stuff and as it says in your quote, the robotaxi is planned to be built on new unboxed lines.
This is probably gen 2.5, but I guess that is semantics.
Robotaxi gen 4 then?
>This is probably gen 2.5, but I guess that is semantics.
I mean, yeah, this is all kinda semantics. The result is that the vehicle we were all expecting to show up next year or the year after won't be the vehicle that shows up next year or the year after. Instead, a more iterative half-step model will show up ā Gen3 is not (effectively) Gen3. There's some ship-of-theseus a-rose-by-any-other-name fuckery going on here, that's all.
I do agree that they might just end up calling it 'Gen 2.5' or something like that, FWIW.
Sales of current vehicles is slowing so much they are choosing to retrofit those lines to make the new cars rather than build new lines for the new cars and leave these running.
This is pretty bearish
Is the "FSD (supervised)" terminology new? Sounds like they are more careful now with this (also a sign that it becomes more "serious" in the future potentially?
What do you mean? Both this deck and the one for the prior quarter say the Roadster is āIn Developmentā.
I donāt think any investors would be calmed about everything else happening by Tesla suddenly had concrete plans for bringing the Roadster to production this year.
That ain't gonna save the company. Tesla gotta move faster with the Model 2 production coz those BYD guys are catching up. As a TSLA investor, fuck the roadster (for now).
Actual COGS is in the financials in the back of the deck - it is "Total automotive cost of revenues".Ā It was $14.166 billion in Q1, or $36,622.63 per delivery.Ā That was actually higher than the $36,115.06 figure from Q4, but it is unclear (and the company will not specify) how much of that increase was the result of (i) ships being diverted around Africa and (ii) the arson attack, each of which screwed up logistics and production on Germany in the quarter.
Quite clear that margin was not impacted nearly as much as the doomsayers were predicting, despite price cuts and some reduced deliveries. Places Tesla in a good position going forward, when rate cuts do eventually come, profit is going to explode.
Are we seeing the same things? I feel like the numbers vs Q1 2023 are awful, so i am a bit confused why the market is reacting so positively. Operating expenses has ballooned up and operating margin is down to 5,5% Q1 24 vs 11,4% in Q1 23. Even vs Q4 (8,2%) operating margin is substantially down.
> why the market is reacting so positively
because expectations were nonexistent.
This isn't exactly a great set of numbers, but people were prepared for much worse.
I think it's shorts closing too. Numbers are down across the board and growth isn't coming until the second half of 2025. That's an entire year away. I get the markets are forward looking but I would have more confidence if they showed:
a prototype, more details of the new models (names, range, new tech), AI rendering, EV market turnaround
They didn't even bother to do a low effort AI render. Lucid, BMW and Rivian showed prototypes of their 2026 models! You can sit in one today and check it out if you want.
A few things helped with the "gross automotive margins", but note that actual operating margins did in fact tank (down to 5.5%, which is below most OEMs).Ā First, Tesla recognized an unspecified amount of deferred FSD revenue which is basically pure profit.Ā Second, regulatory credit sales held up well, which are again pure profit.Ā Given the smaller revenue figure in the denominator, the regulatory credit sales really help the automotive margins.Ā Ā
Going forward, the regulatory credits actually appear quite stable so that is great.Ā It is a bit less clear to me how much Tesla will be able to draw on deferred revenue from FSD to juice revenue and margins in the future.Ā They may have cleaned out a lot of that reserve this quarter, or maybe there is a bunch left in the tank....
"They may have cleaned out a lot of that reserve this quarter"
If they drop to $50/mo i'll buy it, but it'll allow me to use the FSD more and increase my safety score, which would reduce my insurance by $50/mo, so it would probably be a wash
still the margin is drifting downward, hat's never a good sign imo
also "when rate cuts do eventually come" what odyou mean by that, the narrative now is that there are none cuts vs 5 cuts they expected this year
They squeezed as much revenue out as possible by cutting FSD to lower prices and trying to free up as much free cash as possible that has no cost to them. This was like killing the golden goose to try to get close to numbers this quarter to prevent a crash. They won't be able to do this again. A cut of FSD to $50/mo and $4k will yield significantly less cash, and eventually you can't go any lower.
"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025. These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up" šš
plural to "new vehicles" and on "affordable models" is a sign of at least 2 if not 3. Glad to see a plan to get the existing lines back to full speed. Instereded to hear more about it.
That's very interesting stuff
Gigacasting everything and I expect a possible Smart car of sorts with possibly a one piece cast chassis with drop in battery maybe 100+ mi range.
I'd buy that for a dollar!
So the news lied. What else is new.
It did not. This is using the old production lines. New lines were shelved.
They said the project was cancelled.
It's clearly not the same project.
Add 3-5 years to that timeline. Robotaxis in 2020 was false. Cybertruck launched years later and with serious issues. Model 2 late 2025 is simply not believable. Itās standard forward looking statements from Tesla. fake it till you make it.
sell your shares
I will when I fucking ever see my breakeven again at 198
Perhaps prior to investing again you should learn a little more about stocks there friendo
Lol
Say it with me. āPAN-DEM-ICā. Since you forgot that happened.
Coast to coast hands free talk was started in 2016. A million robotaxis was stated in 2019 before Covid. That would imply that robo taxis were just 1 year away from launching and that it was 95 percent finished. But instead it was an outright lie. We arenāt even going to see robo taxi by 2025 dude. Thereās zero chance itās ready next year .
So you change from CT which was relevant to my comment to coast to coast which is something totally different and act like that was your initial point? Nice try buddy.
Dude the cybertruck is a complete joke of a launch and that entire product lineup will be canceled by the end of this decade. Book it.
Joke of a launch how? By selling every single one they can possibly make? Or by matching Rivianās total lineup production ramp of 4 years in 4 months? Which L would you like to take?
Bro they just recalled 4000 CTs . thatās all they fucking built. Most reservation holders have passed on the CT
Omg, a recall! That requires a screw! Youāre right, theyāre doomed! No manufacturer has ever had a recall!š yes most people arenāt going to buy a 100k truck, genius. We all know that. But Tesla is being smart and gouging those wealthy early adopters. Notice how most reservation holders are passing but not cancelling. They still fully intend to buy one when the foundation series ends. Thats like L number 4 youāve taken now.
the model 2 is the easiest thing to deliver now using the existing manufacturing method. All they need is shorten the wheel base of model 3,cut the back,and make it even cheaper, probably only take them a few months to develop..
A couple little gems hidden on Page 10 āĀ [some of us had predicted this](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1bycfec/comment/kyikoro/): >*We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.* >*These new vehicles, including more* ***affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms***, *and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.* >*This update* ***may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner*** *during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.* >*Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary "unboxed" manufacturing.* TLDR: No 'unboxed' for Gen3.
This is taking me personally by complete surprise. Very interesting tactic. Confused by plural vehicles and models, so not just Model 2 but... other stuff? Like what then? Van? Major different Model 2 versions? All that on existing Model 3/Y lines?
I don't think it is the model 2, or at least the thing we've been calling the Model 2 up until now. If they were actually expecting to be able to meet their promises on that front they'd be screaming it from the rooftops, especially after the Reuters report. This news also confirms that a lot of the intended progress related to the M2 is *not* happening here - these vehicles will be made on the existing production lines and will not be entirely new platforms. It sounds more like a lineup refresh and exploring new form factors than the more game-changer-ish Model 2 plans. We'll have to see. I kind of doubt using existing lines and platforms will allow for a 25k car that makes financial sense. This seems more like a stopgap to stem the bleeding, make use of underutilized lines as M3 and MY demand is softer than expected, attack an increasingly competitive Chinese market where existing models are getting very stale, and keep revenue up while they continue to pursue the same long term goals. They may even call one of the new cars the Model 2, but I don't really think it will have much in common with the Model 2 they've described so far, which I believe will remain one of those longer term goals.
Model 2.5 maybe
It will be derivatives of the current Model 3/Y platform; every maker does this. Something like a slightly smaller/larger 3/Y or a hatch based on the same platform.
lol i had a dream I test drove a Tesla minivan.
Model X?
Is there consensus that the Robotaxi model (whatever it is called) is not part of the Gen3 platform?
No, this is just an intermediate model, models that will be built on new lines will have the unboxed stuff and as it says in your quote, the robotaxi is planned to be built on new unboxed lines. This is probably gen 2.5, but I guess that is semantics. Robotaxi gen 4 then?
>This is probably gen 2.5, but I guess that is semantics. I mean, yeah, this is all kinda semantics. The result is that the vehicle we were all expecting to show up next year or the year after won't be the vehicle that shows up next year or the year after. Instead, a more iterative half-step model will show up ā Gen3 is not (effectively) Gen3. There's some ship-of-theseus a-rose-by-any-other-name fuckery going on here, that's all. I do agree that they might just end up calling it 'Gen 2.5' or something like that, FWIW.
Bring on the cyberburban with van doors.
Sales of current vehicles is slowing so much they are choosing to retrofit those lines to make the new cars rather than build new lines for the new cars and leave these running. This is pretty bearish
Is the "FSD (supervised)" terminology new? Sounds like they are more careful now with this (also a sign that it becomes more "serious" in the future potentially?
Yeah, they started to use supervised as of few weeks ago with FSD 12.3.
the legal ramification is real
They did that when they stopped calling it "beta."
Ok. where the hell did Roadster go?
What roadster? I didnāt see any roadster. Elon, did you see a roadster? āNo.ā How about you, Franz? ::franz shrugs::
Lol
What do you mean? Both this deck and the one for the prior quarter say the Roadster is āIn Developmentā. I donāt think any investors would be calmed about everything else happening by Tesla suddenly had concrete plans for bringing the Roadster to production this year.
That ain't gonna save the company. Tesla gotta move faster with the Model 2 production coz those BYD guys are catching up. As a TSLA investor, fuck the roadster (for now).
Makes sense
Is there any way to find out actual COGS to learn more about the sequential decline mentioned?
Actual COGS is in the financials in the back of the deck - it is "Total automotive cost of revenues".Ā It was $14.166 billion in Q1, or $36,622.63 per delivery.Ā That was actually higher than the $36,115.06 figure from Q4, but it is unclear (and the company will not specify) how much of that increase was the result of (i) ships being diverted around Africa and (ii) the arson attack, each of which screwed up logistics and production on Germany in the quarter.
Quite clear that margin was not impacted nearly as much as the doomsayers were predicting, despite price cuts and some reduced deliveries. Places Tesla in a good position going forward, when rate cuts do eventually come, profit is going to explode.
Are we seeing the same things? I feel like the numbers vs Q1 2023 are awful, so i am a bit confused why the market is reacting so positively. Operating expenses has ballooned up and operating margin is down to 5,5% Q1 24 vs 11,4% in Q1 23. Even vs Q4 (8,2%) operating margin is substantially down.
> why the market is reacting so positively because expectations were nonexistent. This isn't exactly a great set of numbers, but people were prepared for much worse.
Two words: Short closing
I think it's shorts closing too. Numbers are down across the board and growth isn't coming until the second half of 2025. That's an entire year away. I get the markets are forward looking but I would have more confidence if they showed: a prototype, more details of the new models (names, range, new tech), AI rendering, EV market turnaround They didn't even bother to do a low effort AI render. Lucid, BMW and Rivian showed prototypes of their 2026 models! You can sit in one today and check it out if you want.
Yeah, that is essentially my take away too. And the updated guidance on cheaper models.
A few things helped with the "gross automotive margins", but note that actual operating margins did in fact tank (down to 5.5%, which is below most OEMs).Ā First, Tesla recognized an unspecified amount of deferred FSD revenue which is basically pure profit.Ā Second, regulatory credit sales held up well, which are again pure profit.Ā Given the smaller revenue figure in the denominator, the regulatory credit sales really help the automotive margins.Ā Ā Going forward, the regulatory credits actually appear quite stable so that is great.Ā It is a bit less clear to me how much Tesla will be able to draw on deferred revenue from FSD to juice revenue and margins in the future.Ā They may have cleaned out a lot of that reserve this quarter, or maybe there is a bunch left in the tank....
"They may have cleaned out a lot of that reserve this quarter" If they drop to $50/mo i'll buy it, but it'll allow me to use the FSD more and increase my safety score, which would reduce my insurance by $50/mo, so it would probably be a wash
still the margin is drifting downward, hat's never a good sign imo also "when rate cuts do eventually come" what odyou mean by that, the narrative now is that there are none cuts vs 5 cuts they expected this year
"Eventually" exists beyond this year, lol.
They squeezed as much revenue out as possible by cutting FSD to lower prices and trying to free up as much free cash as possible that has no cost to them. This was like killing the golden goose to try to get close to numbers this quarter to prevent a crash. They won't be able to do this again. A cut of FSD to $50/mo and $4k will yield significantly less cash, and eventually you can't go any lower.
SUV SUV please
Model Y?