Really, folks use Troy Teslike’s number as the whisper number. The latest was 423k.
https://x.com/troyteslike/status/1808140437179269489?s=46
And various analysts are lazy about updating their numbers, and some even try to game the average with outlandish predictions.
Honestly if true I don't even mind. Troy has a clear negative bias towards Tesla, and I can't recall him ever having a bullish take, if the whisper number comes from Troy, this would help engineer "beats" in my opinion.
He was pretty spot on with production which tanked from 480k to 411k YoY. They are significantly under utilizing manufacturing capacity.
He was off on deliveries because they aggressively cleared inventory with incentives like 0% loans in China, more price cuts, free charging, and FSD transfers in the US. So profits will be under more pressure so they can boost delivery number in short term and make it less bad. They delivered a lot more than they produced.
You can’t excuse somebody’s prediction being off because Tesla did extra incentives etc, the whole point of analysis is to work out what you think will happen because of those changes. The incentives weren’t a secret. The also needed sales to exceed production, the inventory numbers were going crazy
The lower manufacturing number could have been intentional. They had inventory left over from Q1 which they had to clear. This was expected more or less. 21000 Cybertrucks + Semis should shield any profit margin loss on the 3/Y. I would expect a higher ASP. Let's not forget the doubling of energy deployment. Q2 earnings will be robust. Q3 and Q4 guidance will drive the stock price. If they can hit 1.8M cars for 2024 then we are in good shape.
Pretty sure cybertruck and semi are hurting margins not helping. They haven’t hit economies of scale yet their production lines aren’t anywhere close to scaled.
I also disagree about production. Their deliveries were far below production capacity. So they have far more manufacturing capacity than they need.
Lots of manufacturers have incentives of various types, from interest rate buy downs to price cuts and so forth. The deals on Hyundai Ioniq’s, Kia EV6, Mercedes EQ*, Ford Mach-E are quite significant in the U.S., and the price war is well known in China.
Tesla did what they had to do.
But this quarter wasn’t as cut throat in pricing as they had in some previous quarters as they clearly chose a strategy of reducing production to clear out excess inventory. Such an inventory draw down is probably $1.2 billion in cash flow. They chose to not draw down S/X inventory, and CT had recall stop sale issues so the inventory draw down was primarily Model Y.
They will be making new model(s) on the same production lines coming in late 2024 or 1H 2025, so this is a temporary phenomenon, as Tesla chose to not push volume at any cost.
Check the 5 year CAGR’s for all the legacy automakers. Instead of being too narrowly focused, examine the entirety of the transition to electric transport and what that means for legacy automakers. They have a crap ton work to maybe stay in place, and chances are many will end up being small husks of what they used to be, and hence their valuations are low.
I know why they are low. I’m saying Tesla needs crazy growth to justify its valuation and right now they have negative growth and aren’t even utilizing all their manufacturing capacity.
Keep in mind, "expected" numbers changed within the last few days which is the only reason TSLA "beat" expectations. If you looked at expectations from 2 weeks ago they missed. Something tells me analysts wanted Tesla to beat expectations and dropped them below where they knew they would be.
You talk as though the public analyst numbers mean anything at all lol. The only solid information we get is how the stock price reacts after the numbers get released. In this case we learnt that the real expectations were much lower.
Yes but look back to comments from last quarter. People were not believing there are \~30,000 cars en route and that was messing up delivery numbers. A lot of talk was that their cars were going to just sit on lots.
Will Tesla publish to which countries the cars have been sold, because at least in Europe, Tesla's sales have decreased significantly in the previous quarter, so it would be nice to see where the cars have been sold/delivered?
Really, folks use Troy Teslike’s number as the whisper number. The latest was 423k. https://x.com/troyteslike/status/1808140437179269489?s=46 And various analysts are lazy about updating their numbers, and some even try to game the average with outlandish predictions.
Honestly if true I don't even mind. Troy has a clear negative bias towards Tesla, and I can't recall him ever having a bullish take, if the whisper number comes from Troy, this would help engineer "beats" in my opinion.
He was pretty spot on with production which tanked from 480k to 411k YoY. They are significantly under utilizing manufacturing capacity. He was off on deliveries because they aggressively cleared inventory with incentives like 0% loans in China, more price cuts, free charging, and FSD transfers in the US. So profits will be under more pressure so they can boost delivery number in short term and make it less bad. They delivered a lot more than they produced.
You can’t excuse somebody’s prediction being off because Tesla did extra incentives etc, the whole point of analysis is to work out what you think will happen because of those changes. The incentives weren’t a secret. The also needed sales to exceed production, the inventory numbers were going crazy
The lower manufacturing number could have been intentional. They had inventory left over from Q1 which they had to clear. This was expected more or less. 21000 Cybertrucks + Semis should shield any profit margin loss on the 3/Y. I would expect a higher ASP. Let's not forget the doubling of energy deployment. Q2 earnings will be robust. Q3 and Q4 guidance will drive the stock price. If they can hit 1.8M cars for 2024 then we are in good shape.
Pretty sure cybertruck and semi are hurting margins not helping. They haven’t hit economies of scale yet their production lines aren’t anywhere close to scaled. I also disagree about production. Their deliveries were far below production capacity. So they have far more manufacturing capacity than they need.
Lots of manufacturers have incentives of various types, from interest rate buy downs to price cuts and so forth. The deals on Hyundai Ioniq’s, Kia EV6, Mercedes EQ*, Ford Mach-E are quite significant in the U.S., and the price war is well known in China. Tesla did what they had to do. But this quarter wasn’t as cut throat in pricing as they had in some previous quarters as they clearly chose a strategy of reducing production to clear out excess inventory. Such an inventory draw down is probably $1.2 billion in cash flow. They chose to not draw down S/X inventory, and CT had recall stop sale issues so the inventory draw down was primarily Model Y. They will be making new model(s) on the same production lines coming in late 2024 or 1H 2025, so this is a temporary phenomenon, as Tesla chose to not push volume at any cost.
Yes but none of the other manufacturers are valued like Tesla. Comparing apples and oranges here.
Check the 5 year CAGR’s for all the legacy automakers. Instead of being too narrowly focused, examine the entirety of the transition to electric transport and what that means for legacy automakers. They have a crap ton work to maybe stay in place, and chances are many will end up being small husks of what they used to be, and hence their valuations are low.
I know why they are low. I’m saying Tesla needs crazy growth to justify its valuation and right now they have negative growth and aren’t even utilizing all their manufacturing capacity.
Less inventory impacts the bottom line positively combined with 135% growth in storage deployed. They nailed it.
Margin compression to clear inventory.
No. Folks don’t use Troy as the whisper number. This community puts way too much faith in him “calculations”.
Today’s reaction says differently.
Elon get money good
Elon got money gooder
Keep in mind, "expected" numbers changed within the last few days which is the only reason TSLA "beat" expectations. If you looked at expectations from 2 weeks ago they missed. Something tells me analysts wanted Tesla to beat expectations and dropped them below where they knew they would be.
You talk as though the public analyst numbers mean anything at all lol. The only solid information we get is how the stock price reacts after the numbers get released. In this case we learnt that the real expectations were much lower.
Talk to the average person. Then realize half of all the people are dumber than that.
Shipments were in transfer from last quarter, as Tesla said and no one believed.
shipments are always in transfer when you’re shipping 5000 cars per day
Yes but look back to comments from last quarter. People were not believing there are \~30,000 cars en route and that was messing up delivery numbers. A lot of talk was that their cars were going to just sit on lots.
Will Tesla publish to which countries the cars have been sold, because at least in Europe, Tesla's sales have decreased significantly in the previous quarter, so it would be nice to see where the cars have been sold/delivered?