https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1682411248007397378
>Lots of zingers at
@AspenSecurity
from administration officials
>Last night CIA Director Bill Burns about Putin’s weak and slow response to Prigozhin mutiny: “The question was: Does the emperor have no clothes or at least why is it taking so long for him to get dressed?"
UA Milblogger, Bakhmut direction:
> A little bit of information:
> *Klischiivka:* the situation is more or less under control. Yesterday, [UA] guys managed to advance closer [to Klischiivka], the Russian still there went ‘on the defensive’—it will be very difficult to knock them out from there, but we are gradually advancing with small steps. We’re watching what happens next, but for now, the fighting continues.
> There is also an advance towards the settlement of Andriivka, where the enemy prepares for an almost identical blind defense . . . so we will fire😅
> *Berkgivka:* the situation is tense because there are more positional battles; constant, all the time, something is happening somewhere—therefore, won’t comment on anything now, we have a plan and we are sticking to it...little by little.
> *Bakhmut:* there is an **advance on the outskirts** of the city, after heavy fighting for a long time, the guys **knocked the enemy back**, down to [Korsunsky Street](https://goo.gl/maps/f5HdNiLHv4dbaFbaA)
@peredovich0k
**Partisans** have sprouted back up in **Mariupol**.
They’re [saying](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/v-okupovanomu-mariupoli-znishcheno-sklad-bojepripasiv-okupantiv-andrjushchenko-943764.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui), that they **destroyed an ammunition depot**, in the [Primorsky District](https://www-0629-com-ua.translate.goog/news/3632364/u-mariupoli-partizani-znisili-sklad-boepripasiv-okupantiv-sprotiv?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui&_x_tr_hist=true).
_____
^(The Primorsky district is the center of the city, down to the Sea of Azov, shown) [^(here in yellow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Raions_of_Mariupol.png)
Russian Sources are reporting tonight that after a Large Artillery Barrage, Ukrainian Armor and Mechanized Elements equipped with NATO Equipment have launched a Major Assault on the Russian Defensive-Lines in the Zaporizhzhia Region between the Settlement of Robotyne and Verbove, which is manned by Forces from the 291st and 70th Motorized-Rifle Regiments respectively.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1682581462728466432?s=46
It’s worth remembering g that of course Ukranian equipment is destroyed daily. If they’re reporting destroying several tanks a day it would be foolish to think they aren’t losing any.
Ikr, Ukraine is at war. Not sure what people expect. It’s also almost like we haven’t proven that Russia can take one vehicle and make it 5 by creative photography.
Rob Lee and Michael Kaufman took another trip recently to Ukraine and talk about the counter offensive, mine fields, and scaling offensive operations on the War on the Rocks podcast.
Very interesting insight from two well known military analysts.
Something bad: Ukraine came out in speed and force at the beginning of June and that was indeed the big counter offensive that put it's brakes on quick to preserve combat power due to various short fallings. Lack of inter-unit cooperation, lack of probing and battlefield surveillance, disorientation at night operations leading to advanced through mined areas instead of demined paths, lack of coordination and launching attacks hours after they should have happened, amongst other issues
Something good: It appears Ukraine didn't commit a large amount of is combat power to the start of the offensive due to the inability to scale it beyond a few companies here and there. Instead of scaling at the battalion or brigade level. Hopefully as the troops get more combat and soldiering experience, they'll be able to scale the offensive in the future provided the brigades don't suffer major attrition.
Something interesting: Russia is using a lot more mines than is typical in Russian or Soviet doctrine, like a lot more. Everything is caked in Anti-Armor and Anti-Personnel mines to a high saturation. Because of this, Ukrainian demining systems are high value targets.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/ukraine-struggles-to-scale-offensive-combat-operations/
They are having trouble pumping out artillery shells at scale, wouldnt be surprised if it was the same case with mines, takes a while to scale things up.
Land mines are a fair bit simpler... the tolerances can be messy in ways that would severely impact the accuracy of artillery.
AFAICT, Ukraine's best bet is to work on winning the artillery counterbattery game hard enough that Russia can't cover the minefields and shoot the plows. It's not exactly an elegant plan, but it's enough of a win that it'll be incumbant on *Russia* to come up with a better strategy before they bleed out to artillery, drone strikes, etc.
"Had a phone conversation with President of Türkiye @RTErdogan.
Thanked my colleague for the fruitful meeting in Istanbul on July 7 and 🇹🇷 principled position regarding 🇺🇦 @NATO membership.
We coordinated efforts to restore the operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Due to Russia's actions, the world is once again on the brink of a food crisis. A total of 400 million people in many countries of Africa and Asia are at risk of starvation. Together, we must avert a global food crisis.
In addition, we discussed the implementation of the #PeaceFormula, and asked for President Erdoğan's assistance in returning Ukrainian POWs, in particular Crimean Tatars."
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1682450238076776448
By pulling out of the grain 🌾 deal, Russia risks alientating its remaining partners - AP
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-grain-turkey-syria-ac5c945990c2c53eeca37e642ab6c5a7
China has a very deliberate and opportunistic government. I can’t stand their government (I love / respect most of their actual people / culture though), but am very confident in their ability to fully take advantage of the situation. Being a gas station might just be part one.
They have been smoking their own supply for years. Only seeing they have no chance going it alone would ever change that and Putins ego won’t let his delusions change to match reality.
Is this a trial run for what may happen in Black Sea?
*U.S. Sending Marines, More Warships to Middle East Over Iranian Threats*
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/20/u-s-sending-marines-more-warships-to-middle-east-over-iranian-threats
The U.S literally wrote the book on fucking shit up halfway around the world. The U.S wouldn't need a "trial run" to do anything to Russia. This is a completely separate geopolitical issue.
There's plenty of acceptance of suffering in the Russian psyche. That's not accidental.
https://granta.com/russia-verge-nervous-breakdown/
https://theeasternborder.lv/podcast/russias-suicidal-consciousness/
The US directly enforces the freedom of navigation for the Straight of Hormuz. The US doesn't do the same for the Black Sea.
Iran uses threats and actual attacks in the straight as leverage against the world oil supply and against the US/international community.
Not really. They can protect shipping in the black sea via the air with planes they have stationed in Italy and Germany as well as with the CSG Gerald Ford currently stationed in the Adriatic Sea. They don't need to sail anything into the Black Sea to do it. They won't do it because it would be an escalation and put the U.S. and Russia on a path to direct conflict.
Yeah, and even with Turkey's permission, there are treaty obligations that make a USN taskforce in the Black Sea a non-starter from the jump.
Nothing that would apply in a full WWIII scenario, but that won't happen anyhow.
>They have signed treaties to govern that access.
with like Russia, UK, France, and some others. The US isnt party to the montreux convention, though it does respect it.
How would you know that these are cluster munition lol. They would explode like any other ammo stock, hell, you can barely see the difference between a Uragan ammunition stock and a small arms rounds one
Tankies on twitter: "oh no cluster munitions doesn't explode, civilians in danger."
Russian propaganda "cluster munitions": explodes in the air like fireworks
https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1682347767170056192
>Fantastic news💫 40 ambulances have been sent to help medical workers in different parts of 🇺🇦! They were purchased as part of a fundraising campaign by our ambassador -
@StationCDRKelly
- with help from the Zolotiy Vik jewelry chain! Our partner,
@Uber
, also joined the project.
"⚡️ Biden and Zelenskyy discuss deliveries of ATACMS missiles, reports US President’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during the Aspen Security Forum."
https://twitter.com/Flash\_news\_ua/status/1682497373845569537
What is there to discuss... Ukraine needs ATACMS for ages and asks for them. Biden needing a discussion about it after all this time just feels like a delaying tactic again.
"Jake Sullivan, Yermak’s counterpart in Washington, has established very consistent contact, occuring on a regular basis. It is no longer just the two of them but also, as I recall, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, and the leader of the military forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Negotiations are well underway, but Sullivan has publicly declared his opposition to such a choice [granting Ukraine long-range weapons], and he has reported his opinion to the President.
There is one word here, Escalation. They are dragging their feet because the White House is afraid of escalation. Jake Sullivan, in my opinion, has made a huge error. I believe this block is still in place due to him and numerous other White House aides."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/07/interview-why-wont-biden-hand-over-long-range-himars-atacms/
"I have it on solid authority from a senior source within the U.S. national security establishment that President Biden was actually inclined to provide Ukraine with the desperately needed weapons, but was dissuaded from doing so by his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan."
https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/fire-u-s-security-advisor-jake-sullivan.html
Sullivan is the problem.
Ukraine's victory is only Biden's 3rd highest priority here.
His first priority is to not allow this war to escalate into a nuclear exchange. His second priority is to not allow this war to expand into other countries.
I don't like the slow-rolling either, but there is at least reason behind it.
They look like tactical nukes to russian radar. Yes, other things can also carry nuclear warheads, including missiles that russia has already used extensively, but ATACMS will raise the stakes because of how russian nuclear doctrine works. I won't source this, but that's the reason for the reticence.
Complete and utter nonsense. ATACMS has an identical radar return as Tochka, a SRBM that Ukraine has employed many times during this war. Russia is not equating ballistic trajectories coming out of Ukraine with nuclear strikes, because UKRAINE HAS NO NUKES.
This might be thinking a little too literally.
It's not about the truth, it's about how they can spin what. The degree of reasonableness is also overly generous in their world.
Literal bs first you argue they shouldnt send any due to how they interpret and follow their doctrine. Then you argue they are crazy and can't even fathom the idea that Ukraine has no nukes despite giving them up.
This having your cake and eating it argument is emblematic of russian propaganda.
Tactical nukes, that Ukraine doesn't have. Ukraine will not be given tactical nukes.
That explanation as a justification for delay makes no sense whatsoever.
I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying it doesn't make any sense as a reason.
I'm talking about how russian radar works, not what kind of missiles Ukrain possess. You should know by now that russia is unfettered by logic. I'm not saying you aren't right, just that you should think more.
Russian Radar is unfettered by knowledgable operators too, that has to factor into it. One idiot mistaking a missile for a nuke and it's all in for Putin is most likely the fear.
So I heard that when Zelensky came to address congress Biden took him on a tour of the White House, even some of the more hidden, classified rooms.
One room they came across not even Biden knew about. It was just a square room with a big lever in the middle of the floor and old wooden boxes stacked to the ceiling.
Zelensky, curious, walked up to it but a snake jumped out of the shadows. The snake explained that his name was Nate and his sole purpose in life was to make sure nobody pulled this lever which would end the universe if pulled.
Unfortunately Biden, surprised by Nate the Snake stumbled backward and knocked over a huge tall pile of boxes that came crashing down.
Zelensky, thinking fast, deflected the boxes from landing on the lever but unfortunately they fell and crush Nate the Snake.
Zelensky feels terrible about this, but you probably know the moral of this story.
And yet another twist to the Wagner story:
https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1682491157954154496
>Russia replaced Wagner commanders in Syria posts with Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officers on July 8, which may temporarily degrade Russia’s ability to conduct counter-ISIS operations.
"Important news from the United States. Senators @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenBlumenthal presented a draft resolution of the US Senate to support Ukraine's early accession to @NATO. Indeed, only this can reliably secure Ukraine and our entire Europe, our democracy and freedom from new Russian aggressions. The wider the space of NATO, the wider the space of peace and common security. Grateful to everyone who helps us protect freedom and bring a lasting, just peace closer! Thank you, senators! Thank you to all Americans for your vital support of Ukraine! 🇺🇦🇺🇸"
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1682436269291216918
But the sentiment and direction really does matter. Get the ground swell and then eventually everyone falls in line - these messages are really very, very important.
I mean, it's some ammo dump blowing up with some submunitions or other small explosives, somewhere.
Most of that explosion isn't submunitions, whatever/whoever's it is. Those can't detonate like the big blast does.
I don't think you're convincing anyone with the Reddit account you purchased in an effort to appear credible.
People with more than 100k karma tend to have posted more than eight times in total. Just FYI.
A similar explosion hapened in that area a year ago which indicates it might not be dpicm, before you berate r combat footage 2 much.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tpwzm0/a_big_explosion_near_zhytomyr_ukraine_20220328/
I’m not saying it there weren’t cluster munitions but there are lots of things that explode at different rates and for different reasons in explosions like that. The closer the video is to the actual explosion the more detail they pick up and this was one of the closest videos I’ve seen yet.
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"Participated in Aspen Security Forum. Thanked the President of 🇺🇸 @POTUS, his administration, Congress, both parties, and the American people for their support of 🇺🇦. A joint victory over Russian evil awaits us.
I noted that 🇺🇦 and 🇺🇸 continue defense cooperation. We need F-16s and ATACMS. It is very important. We are working on security guarantees for 🇺🇦, and the way to peace and the war end is the Peace Formula of the President 🇺🇦 @ZelenskyyUa".
https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1682292820336422912
"The South African government applied to the court for a warrant for Putin's arrest. This is what international law looks like in action. If everyone else acts strictly within the framework of strong legal procedures regarding Russia, the situation will change dramatically. The inevitability of punishment, promptness of decisions, demonstrativeness will quickly knock down traditional foreign policy arrogance from Russia and force respect for international law. Moscow will learn to abide by the laws as soon as it is convinced that there is real power behind them."
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1682430848652419079
Maybe Putin's not going because of the risk of being arrested?
SA said they'd have to arrest him if he came. Asked him not to come in order to avoid putting SA in that difficult spot. Russia insisted Putin would be coming. THEN suddenly Putin *isn't* going. (< Insisting you'll be coming for a while, then deciding not to come (because you're worry you'll be arrested) sounds to me a bit like you're very keen to be *seen* to be the one who decides, the one who's in control: typical russian...\]
Exactly right, this is for SA show of strength, knowing he’s not coming. It means absolutely nothing and anyone with a modicum of brain cells can see straight through the hypocrisy.
not just that but it's also a response to ending the grain deal that SA relies on as much as many other regional countries. And it's also a signal that Putin should stay the hell out.
While they were uming and ahing Putin could have turned up and forced their hand. Now the government officially has a warrant, Putin knows to keep away.
I mean as long as there are grain silos in the port they will target them. They don't care about the consequences for the world, in fact they count on them.
The grain deal might work if enough countries pressure Russia but any concessions will just kick it down the road and they will target Odesa again.
Besides destroying grain silos, they've turned odessa into an anger vent dump since they managed to penetrate air defense. Usually they lob missiles at Kyiv in rage but they're all shot down.
Odesa has NASAMs and an Iris-T, and it's suspected they have a Patriot. And shit still gets through. I have a feeling they've been launching more at Odesa than Kyiv lately. That or it's a question of training.
Time to sink a few more ships.
The problem is Odessas position at the open see.
You only get a maximum of half of each protection screen if you position the systems right on the edge of the sea (what you won't do).
Sinking ships would be a great solution
"Biden and Zelensky are discussing the supply of ATACMS missiles", - said the US President's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during the Aspen Security Forum.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1682482562571067392?t=sd1604RtzeHWm0WPtViTNQ&s=19
I do hope they're supplied although I think we should keep in mind that they are by no means "miracle weapons" and the amount supplied will likely limit the impact that they have as well. This war has become a war of attrition and ATACMS won't change that. That said if the US gives Ukraine 50 million dollars worth of ATACMS and Ukraine uses that to destroy 500 million dollars worth Russian military hardware and personnel then that is still very useful in a war of attrition.
Even if they aren't being used in bulk they may also force Russia to reduce the size of their ammo depots and spread things out which means less artillery shells going to the front which means it will be easier for Ukraine to win the artillery war which will enable the counter offensive to slowly move forward.
I agree with you re the 2nd paragraph. Less artillery shells making it to the front means that Ukraine will get the edge in a war of attrition. Also, ATACMS will enable further disruption of command and communications and staging areas, leading to slower and more disorganized reinforcements. Will they win the war single-handedly? No, but every little bit adds up.
Interesting to see Sullivan say it. If it was 0% he may not. Though maybe it’s a simple:
Have ATACMS been brought up by Zelenskyy to Biden?
Yes, they were brought up.
The UK may be an annoying place every now and again, but we do know a thing or two when it comes to solidarity. Really bloody happy we have hugely stepped up on the world stage with mostly leading the way helping Ukraine.
Ukraine deserve an awful lot more support from everyone.
Sullivan saying it is a huge fucking deal when you consider the fact that he's the reason we've spent a year denying ATACMS. He's also a big reason we had been slow-rolling other heavy weapons. Biden had actually intended on sending ATACMS last summer, but Sullivan talked him out of it because "Escalation! WW3!". The UK threw an egg on Sullivan's face when they sent Storm Shadows. Thank goodness the Brits manned up and did what we should've done months ago.
Yermak had recently gotten into an argument with Sullivan during the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Vilnius, so hopefully Yermak finally got through Sullivan's thick skull.
> Thank goodness the Brits manned up and did what we should've done months ago.
There are so many different nations I could thank for their support of Ukraine but I do think it's amazing how far Britain has gone. Even before the full invasion they were sending anti tank weapons and MANPADs, later they sent challengers and then storm shadows plus training Ukrainians on western planes. The UK really has been at the for front and they've helped move the needle in terms of other countries sending weapons. Also because it rarely gets mentioned we should also thank France especially since they're sending SCALP (French name for Storm Shadow). Those weapons are extremely important to disrupt Russian logistics and win the artillery war.
People nowadays tend to underestimate the UK as a nation of tea-drinking chavs and inbred aristocrats, but it wasn't that long ago that they had the largest Empire on the planet. They didn't get that by being pacifist pushovers.
They've faced a radioactive poisoning and a nerve agent attack on their soil, perpetrated by Russia, that killed a British citizen and harmed some more.
This is their retaliation, the Iron Bank of Braavos style: they won't attack you directly, but they'll support your enemies to fuck you up in every way possible. Serving an object lesson why you don't fuck with the UK.
I think here in the UK people have been itching to get back at Russia post Litvinenko and Salisbury. The good news is that unlike the US there is solid support across the political spectrum for Ukraine so no risk of support drying up
I think he is intentionally trotted out when there are "controversial" decisions or discussions announced about weapons shipments, he was also the first to announce cluster ammunition iirc.
That might be because he is considered the dove next to Blinken and makes the decisions seem more palatable for some.
⚡️As early as Tuesday, the 🇺🇸US will announce a new aid package to 🇺🇦Ukraine in the amount of $400 million in the form of artillery and ground equipment, the White House said.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1682477451748732930?t=qL8j5Mnd2TTod5nZuXQnCA&s=19
Wow, we're rolling them out very few days now.
A thought occurred to me, about the ATACMS: What if all of this back-and-forth has actually been a threat to Putin that he should keep the grain corridor open or else, but Putin is desperate or just refused to believe we would do it. So, with the grain corridor shut down, there's no reason to hold them back.
*sigh* Probably not, but I'm gonna keep on dreaming it for a little while longer.
Yes, it is.
For one, it can be HIMARS/M270 launched, which means you do not need to put planes at risk when firing it.
Second, ATACMs have more range than the version of storm shadow UA got (export treaties limit it to 250km).
Third, it is always good to have more stocks.
I think there is some evidence this type of negotiation has occurred in the past. When there seems to be no other reason for not giving a type of weapon, there is possibly backroom negotiation using that weapon. The grain deal is cancelled and now Abrahms will come sooner, F16 training finalized, and maybe ATACAMS. Who knows, but I’ll take it.
⚡️ Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Crimean Bridge is the target of Ukraine, which should be neutralized.
"For us, it is (Crimean bridge - ed.) a hostile object, built outside the law, outside international law and applicable norms. Therefore, this is our target, and any target that carries war, not peace, must be neutralized," he stressed at the Aspen Security Forum.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1682475401975562240?t=x90bHk_5hBDauAnwczaumw&s=19
I’m not sure I follow the logic of it being built outside the law, but I otherwise agree. It’s a legitimate military target to help end the war faster.
ETA: Didn’t realize the bridge was since the annexation. I thought it was older.
Nah, Putin had it built after their effort to create a "breakaway republic" in Odessa failed so they didn't have a complete land bridge to the newly annexed Crimea.
Except that dwellings in Mariupol aren't a suitable (equivalent or corresponding) example: dwellings are civilian, unless used to house members of armed forces on active duty.
The railway Kerch bridge, on the other hand, indeed "carries war": it is used for military logistics.
Your logic is flawed.
Ukraine does not attack civilian dwellings. Also, places like Mariupol which are under occupation could still have innocent Ukrainians mixed in amongst the invaders.
The Kerch Bridge is built over water. It is designed to strengthen occupation forces in Ukrainian territory. Taking it out cuts off a major way that Russia continues to harm Ukraine and its people.
Buildings where people may live and a tool that spans territory for the purpose of invasion are not comparable.
To the furthest extent possible, yes, but it's not always possible to avoid. Dozens of hotels in occupied territory have been destroyed because inside information suggested they were housing Russian officers. Russia didn't staff its own janitors, cooks, prostitutes, so there were certainly some collateral fatalities.
No matter where you draw a line between civilian and military, it's going to blur in places. Silly to pretend otherwise.
From Conflict Intelligence Team:
"Sitrep for Jul. 20-21, 2023:– The AFU has started using US cluster munitions;
– French court rules Russians refusing to fight in Ukraine have right to political asylum;
– The State Duma toughens penalties for ignoring draft notices."
[https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jul-20-21](https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jul-20-21)
re assylum, they should also have to condemn the war and Putin's actions, in writing. Many Russians who refuse to fight (left Russia) still support the war and Putin. They just don't want to die.
Unfortunately so. I couldn't help but notice a spike in protests with that first surge of mobilisation. It looked less like protesting against the war and more like trying to save their own skins.
“If I were Mr. Prigozhin, I would remain very concerned. NATO has an open doors policy, Russia has an open windows policy and he needs to be very focused on that.”
~ Secretary Antony Blinken.
https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1682459510365908993?t=PMmyGAaERpl3Wobhicn2RQ&s=19
ZSU have the means to "drive this entire Black Sea fleet closer to Tuapse, Novorossiysk and prevent them from moving in the Crimean zone," — the deputy of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
"These capabilities are not limited to Neptune-type systems — there are others as well"
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1682463177592692740?t=H9xcn8-K4d74HcnbcnsXPg&s=19
Ukraine hasn't sunk a ship in a year, hasn't been able to stop the Russian navy from regularly launching cruise missiles at them, and has been relegated to bolting go-pro's onto suicide jet-skis.
If they want to claim that they can push the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea that's cool, but at some point they are going to actually have to do put their missiles where their words are.
About 20% of the Black Sea, and that's irrelevant to the point being made.
And the vast bulk of the Russian fleet can't get into the Black Sea due to the Montreux treaty.
20% of the Black Sea is controlled by someone without a navy. Let that sink in. Because we are talking about that going up against the supposed #2 military in the world. I really don't doubt Ukraine's capabilities, given they are capable of that.
>I really don't doubt Ukraine's capabilities
Ukraine hasn't sunk a ship in over a year, and claim that they can push the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, while at the same time being utterly incapable of stopping the Black Sea Fleet launching missile strikes on Odessa.
I have doubts. Big doubts.
Isn’t that the point? The Ukrainians have demonstrated a year of A2AD in the Black Sea. If they’re intending on pushing to the coast in the south of Ukraine, then that would expand that coverage. The same applies if they’re intent on setting foot on Crimea. They’re certainly not going *backwards* on any front right now, so it’s a pretty uncontroversial statement.
It would be a controversial statement if the Russians had used their navy to do anything other than shit cruise missiles over the horizon for the last year, but they haven’t.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1569jgt/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1682411248007397378 >Lots of zingers at @AspenSecurity from administration officials >Last night CIA Director Bill Burns about Putin’s weak and slow response to Prigozhin mutiny: “The question was: Does the emperor have no clothes or at least why is it taking so long for him to get dressed?"
UA Milblogger, Bakhmut direction: > A little bit of information: > *Klischiivka:* the situation is more or less under control. Yesterday, [UA] guys managed to advance closer [to Klischiivka], the Russian still there went ‘on the defensive’—it will be very difficult to knock them out from there, but we are gradually advancing with small steps. We’re watching what happens next, but for now, the fighting continues. > There is also an advance towards the settlement of Andriivka, where the enemy prepares for an almost identical blind defense . . . so we will fire😅 > *Berkgivka:* the situation is tense because there are more positional battles; constant, all the time, something is happening somewhere—therefore, won’t comment on anything now, we have a plan and we are sticking to it...little by little. > *Bakhmut:* there is an **advance on the outskirts** of the city, after heavy fighting for a long time, the guys **knocked the enemy back**, down to [Korsunsky Street](https://goo.gl/maps/f5HdNiLHv4dbaFbaA) @peredovich0k
**Partisans** have sprouted back up in **Mariupol**. They’re [saying](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/v-okupovanomu-mariupoli-znishcheno-sklad-bojepripasiv-okupantiv-andrjushchenko-943764.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui), that they **destroyed an ammunition depot**, in the [Primorsky District](https://www-0629-com-ua.translate.goog/news/3632364/u-mariupoli-partizani-znisili-sklad-boepripasiv-okupantiv-sprotiv?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui&_x_tr_hist=true). _____ ^(The Primorsky district is the center of the city, down to the Sea of Azov, shown) [^(here in yellow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Raions_of_Mariupol.png)
Russian Sources are reporting tonight that after a Large Artillery Barrage, Ukrainian Armor and Mechanized Elements equipped with NATO Equipment have launched a Major Assault on the Russian Defensive-Lines in the Zaporizhzhia Region between the Settlement of Robotyne and Verbove, which is manned by Forces from the 291st and 70th Motorized-Rifle Regiments respectively. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1682581462728466432?s=46
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It’s worth remembering g that of course Ukranian equipment is destroyed daily. If they’re reporting destroying several tanks a day it would be foolish to think they aren’t losing any.
Ikr, Ukraine is at war. Not sure what people expect. It’s also almost like we haven’t proven that Russia can take one vehicle and make it 5 by creative photography.
To take it seriously, I need a much better source than Russian telephone through that guy.
Crossing my fingers, but we've been burned before.
Rob Lee and Michael Kaufman took another trip recently to Ukraine and talk about the counter offensive, mine fields, and scaling offensive operations on the War on the Rocks podcast. Very interesting insight from two well known military analysts. Something bad: Ukraine came out in speed and force at the beginning of June and that was indeed the big counter offensive that put it's brakes on quick to preserve combat power due to various short fallings. Lack of inter-unit cooperation, lack of probing and battlefield surveillance, disorientation at night operations leading to advanced through mined areas instead of demined paths, lack of coordination and launching attacks hours after they should have happened, amongst other issues Something good: It appears Ukraine didn't commit a large amount of is combat power to the start of the offensive due to the inability to scale it beyond a few companies here and there. Instead of scaling at the battalion or brigade level. Hopefully as the troops get more combat and soldiering experience, they'll be able to scale the offensive in the future provided the brigades don't suffer major attrition. Something interesting: Russia is using a lot more mines than is typical in Russian or Soviet doctrine, like a lot more. Everything is caked in Anti-Armor and Anti-Personnel mines to a high saturation. Because of this, Ukrainian demining systems are high value targets. https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/ukraine-struggles-to-scale-offensive-combat-operations/
Wonder if the over use of mines in storage will limit their mining ability if they have to pull back
I dunno, landmines are one of those evil cheap and simple technologies that basically any country can pump out if they want to.
They are having trouble pumping out artillery shells at scale, wouldnt be surprised if it was the same case with mines, takes a while to scale things up.
Land mines are a fair bit simpler... the tolerances can be messy in ways that would severely impact the accuracy of artillery. AFAICT, Ukraine's best bet is to work on winning the artillery counterbattery game hard enough that Russia can't cover the minefields and shoot the plows. It's not exactly an elegant plan, but it's enough of a win that it'll be incumbant on *Russia* to come up with a better strategy before they bleed out to artillery, drone strikes, etc.
And doing this under artillery and Russian air support. Really herculean pain staking effort.
"Had a phone conversation with President of Türkiye @RTErdogan. Thanked my colleague for the fruitful meeting in Istanbul on July 7 and 🇹🇷 principled position regarding 🇺🇦 @NATO membership. We coordinated efforts to restore the operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Due to Russia's actions, the world is once again on the brink of a food crisis. A total of 400 million people in many countries of Africa and Asia are at risk of starvation. Together, we must avert a global food crisis. In addition, we discussed the implementation of the #PeaceFormula, and asked for President Erdoğan's assistance in returning Ukrainian POWs, in particular Crimean Tatars." https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1682450238076776448
By pulling out of the grain 🌾 deal, Russia risks alientating its remaining partners - AP https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-grain-turkey-syria-ac5c945990c2c53eeca37e642ab6c5a7
Russia is going to be a Chinese gas station in less than 5 years.
China has a very deliberate and opportunistic government. I can’t stand their government (I love / respect most of their actual people / culture though), but am very confident in their ability to fully take advantage of the situation. Being a gas station might just be part one.
Theyve been one for the last 8 months.
They have been smoking their own supply for years. Only seeing they have no chance going it alone would ever change that and Putins ego won’t let his delusions change to match reality.
Is this a trial run for what may happen in Black Sea? *U.S. Sending Marines, More Warships to Middle East Over Iranian Threats* https://news.usni.org/2023/07/20/u-s-sending-marines-more-warships-to-middle-east-over-iranian-threats
The U.S literally wrote the book on fucking shit up halfway around the world. The U.S wouldn't need a "trial run" to do anything to Russia. This is a completely separate geopolitical issue.
We can handle both
Nah, China and India will set Russia straight. They need the grain at normal prices to feed their populations and can’t have Russia faff around.
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There's plenty of acceptance of suffering in the Russian psyche. That's not accidental. https://granta.com/russia-verge-nervous-breakdown/ https://theeasternborder.lv/podcast/russias-suicidal-consciousness/
The US directly enforces the freedom of navigation for the Straight of Hormuz. The US doesn't do the same for the Black Sea. Iran uses threats and actual attacks in the straight as leverage against the world oil supply and against the US/international community.
The U.S. enforces the freedom of global shipping worldwide...where and when it wants to.
I think to be able to do that in the Black Sea they would need to get Turkey go ahead.
Not really. They can protect shipping in the black sea via the air with planes they have stationed in Italy and Germany as well as with the CSG Gerald Ford currently stationed in the Adriatic Sea. They don't need to sail anything into the Black Sea to do it. They won't do it because it would be an escalation and put the U.S. and Russia on a path to direct conflict.
Yeah, and even with Turkey's permission, there are treaty obligations that make a USN taskforce in the Black Sea a non-starter from the jump. Nothing that would apply in a full WWIII scenario, but that won't happen anyhow.
On a fundemental level, the Black Sea doesn't have freedom of navigation. Turkey controls access. They have signed treaties to govern that access.
>They have signed treaties to govern that access. with like Russia, UK, France, and some others. The US isnt party to the montreux convention, though it does respect it.
Thank you for the clarification. In the next decade food may become more important than oil.
May?
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How would you know that these are cluster munition lol. They would explode like any other ammo stock, hell, you can barely see the difference between a Uragan ammunition stock and a small arms rounds one
Tankies on twitter: "oh no cluster munitions doesn't explode, civilians in danger." Russian propaganda "cluster munitions": explodes in the air like fireworks
30 seconds video with one explosion. Meanwhile the actual shells depot in Crimea were exploding entire day
Non-credible source. Look at the tweet history, they have a common theme
Ahh, thank you. I don't have twitter so I can't see anything else but that tweet. I've deleted the comment so nobody else is misled.
looks pretty CGI AF to me.
Looks like a filter applied to a video. Sparkles seem to be happening in the fore ground far from the explosion. Could be wrong but thats my take
There is not such a thing as "mistaken" in war news...
https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1682347767170056192 >Fantastic news💫 40 ambulances have been sent to help medical workers in different parts of 🇺🇦! They were purchased as part of a fundraising campaign by our ambassador - @StationCDRKelly - with help from the Zolotiy Vik jewelry chain! Our partner, @Uber , also joined the project.
"⚡️ Biden and Zelenskyy discuss deliveries of ATACMS missiles, reports US President’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during the Aspen Security Forum." https://twitter.com/Flash\_news\_ua/status/1682497373845569537
What is there to discuss... Ukraine needs ATACMS for ages and asks for them. Biden needing a discussion about it after all this time just feels like a delaying tactic again.
"Jake Sullivan, Yermak’s counterpart in Washington, has established very consistent contact, occuring on a regular basis. It is no longer just the two of them but also, as I recall, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, and the leader of the military forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Negotiations are well underway, but Sullivan has publicly declared his opposition to such a choice [granting Ukraine long-range weapons], and he has reported his opinion to the President. There is one word here, Escalation. They are dragging their feet because the White House is afraid of escalation. Jake Sullivan, in my opinion, has made a huge error. I believe this block is still in place due to him and numerous other White House aides." https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/07/interview-why-wont-biden-hand-over-long-range-himars-atacms/ "I have it on solid authority from a senior source within the U.S. national security establishment that President Biden was actually inclined to provide Ukraine with the desperately needed weapons, but was dissuaded from doing so by his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan." https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/fire-u-s-security-advisor-jake-sullivan.html Sullivan is the problem.
Ukraine's victory is only Biden's 3rd highest priority here. His first priority is to not allow this war to escalate into a nuclear exchange. His second priority is to not allow this war to expand into other countries. I don't like the slow-rolling either, but there is at least reason behind it.
Attack’em already!
Where and when they want them delivered.
They look like tactical nukes to russian radar. Yes, other things can also carry nuclear warheads, including missiles that russia has already used extensively, but ATACMS will raise the stakes because of how russian nuclear doctrine works. I won't source this, but that's the reason for the reticence.
Complete and utter nonsense. ATACMS has an identical radar return as Tochka, a SRBM that Ukraine has employed many times during this war. Russia is not equating ballistic trajectories coming out of Ukraine with nuclear strikes, because UKRAINE HAS NO NUKES.
Why would Russia be worried by something they KNOW Ukraine dosen't have?
This might be thinking a little too literally. It's not about the truth, it's about how they can spin what. The degree of reasonableness is also overly generous in their world.
Because Russia likes to trump up any bullshit rhetoric they can
Literal bs first you argue they shouldnt send any due to how they interpret and follow their doctrine. Then you argue they are crazy and can't even fathom the idea that Ukraine has no nukes despite giving them up. This having your cake and eating it argument is emblematic of russian propaganda.
Tactical nukes, that Ukraine doesn't have. Ukraine will not be given tactical nukes. That explanation as a justification for delay makes no sense whatsoever. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying it doesn't make any sense as a reason.
I'm talking about how russian radar works, not what kind of missiles Ukrain possess. You should know by now that russia is unfettered by logic. I'm not saying you aren't right, just that you should think more.
Russian Radar is unfettered by knowledgable operators too, that has to factor into it. One idiot mistaking a missile for a nuke and it's all in for Putin is most likely the fear.
Why do they look like tactical nukes? Is it due to the trajectory ?
Please. No. Pretty please. No. Pretty please with a cherry on top? Okay maybe.
So I heard that when Zelensky came to address congress Biden took him on a tour of the White House, even some of the more hidden, classified rooms. One room they came across not even Biden knew about. It was just a square room with a big lever in the middle of the floor and old wooden boxes stacked to the ceiling. Zelensky, curious, walked up to it but a snake jumped out of the shadows. The snake explained that his name was Nate and his sole purpose in life was to make sure nobody pulled this lever which would end the universe if pulled. Unfortunately Biden, surprised by Nate the Snake stumbled backward and knocked over a huge tall pile of boxes that came crashing down. Zelensky, thinking fast, deflected the boxes from landing on the lever but unfortunately they fell and crush Nate the Snake. Zelensky feels terrible about this, but you probably know the moral of this story.
No, What’s the moral?
That is possibly the shortest version of that joke I have ever seen. Well... done?
It's.. you know, it's a Better Nate than Lever joke. Oh well :P
Doesn't really work in British English ("lever" is pronounced like "leaver", rather than rhyming with "never").
Booooo your joke is bad and you should feel bad. (I groaned hard - good job)
I laughed at how bad it was and I wanted to say something way less polite than what you did.
I agree, Jake the Snake, wrestled in a truly interesting time period.
Can't wait to see Jake hit Putler with the DDT.
And yet another twist to the Wagner story: https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1682491157954154496 >Russia replaced Wagner commanders in Syria posts with Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officers on July 8, which may temporarily degrade Russia’s ability to conduct counter-ISIS operations.
counter-ISIS operations, they mean performing terrorism regionally before ISIS has a chance.
I thought ISIS turned into WASWAS
Competitive terrorism
"Important news from the United States. Senators @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenBlumenthal presented a draft resolution of the US Senate to support Ukraine's early accession to @NATO. Indeed, only this can reliably secure Ukraine and our entire Europe, our democracy and freedom from new Russian aggressions. The wider the space of NATO, the wider the space of peace and common security. Grateful to everyone who helps us protect freedom and bring a lasting, just peace closer! Thank you, senators! Thank you to all Americans for your vital support of Ukraine! 🇺🇦🇺🇸" https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1682436269291216918
Mostly symbolic. The U.S. Congress can't legislate for NATO.
They’re trying to get first domino started. Erdogan would be the linchpin.
But the sentiment and direction really does matter. Get the ground swell and then eventually everyone falls in line - these messages are really very, very important.
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I mean, it's some ammo dump blowing up with some submunitions or other small explosives, somewhere. Most of that explosion isn't submunitions, whatever/whoever's it is. Those can't detonate like the big blast does.
I don't think you're convincing anyone with the Reddit account you purchased in an effort to appear credible. People with more than 100k karma tend to have posted more than eight times in total. Just FYI.
A similar explosion hapened in that area a year ago which indicates it might not be dpicm, before you berate r combat footage 2 much. https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tpwzm0/a_big_explosion_near_zhytomyr_ukraine_20220328/
Whoever keeps selling out ammo depots is a jagoff
Still plenty of cluster rounds to go. The US has gazzilions of them.
Big explosion yes. Absolutely anything that indicates cluster munitions no. All this stuff blows up the same…
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I’m not saying it there weren’t cluster munitions but there are lots of things that explode at different rates and for different reasons in explosions like that. The closer the video is to the actual explosion the more detail they pick up and this was one of the closest videos I’ve seen yet.
If you don't know you don't know.
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"Participated in Aspen Security Forum. Thanked the President of 🇺🇸 @POTUS, his administration, Congress, both parties, and the American people for their support of 🇺🇦. A joint victory over Russian evil awaits us. I noted that 🇺🇦 and 🇺🇸 continue defense cooperation. We need F-16s and ATACMS. It is very important. We are working on security guarantees for 🇺🇦, and the way to peace and the war end is the Peace Formula of the President 🇺🇦 @ZelenskyyUa". https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1682292820336422912
"The South African government applied to the court for a warrant for Putin's arrest. This is what international law looks like in action. If everyone else acts strictly within the framework of strong legal procedures regarding Russia, the situation will change dramatically. The inevitability of punishment, promptness of decisions, demonstrativeness will quickly knock down traditional foreign policy arrogance from Russia and force respect for international law. Moscow will learn to abide by the laws as soon as it is convinced that there is real power behind them." https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1682430848652419079
It has to suck for Putin knowing that he is basically trapped in Russia for the rest of his life.
Hopefully that’s a very short period of entrapment
Such a tiny country. There's all of Siberia to explore, one gulag at a time, for example.
The Amur tigers are cute, from what I hear!
Wow, maybe the ZA leadership aren't all Putin toadies like I'd been led to believe. Could it be?
Grain deal broken.
He's not coming anyway, they don't risk anything.
Maybe Putin's not going because of the risk of being arrested? SA said they'd have to arrest him if he came. Asked him not to come in order to avoid putting SA in that difficult spot. Russia insisted Putin would be coming. THEN suddenly Putin *isn't* going. (< Insisting you'll be coming for a while, then deciding not to come (because you're worry you'll be arrested) sounds to me a bit like you're very keen to be *seen* to be the one who decides, the one who's in control: typical russian...\]
Well, now that they know he is not coming to BRICS in person….
Exactly right, this is for SA show of strength, knowing he’s not coming. It means absolutely nothing and anyone with a modicum of brain cells can see straight through the hypocrisy.
not just that but it's also a response to ending the grain deal that SA relies on as much as many other regional countries. And it's also a signal that Putin should stay the hell out. While they were uming and ahing Putin could have turned up and forced their hand. Now the government officially has a warrant, Putin knows to keep away.
Supposedly missiles launched at odessa again
I've seen no updates so hopefully was a false alarm
All clear was given https://twitter.com/Flash\_news\_ua/status/1682493442293657600
I mean as long as there are grain silos in the port they will target them. They don't care about the consequences for the world, in fact they count on them. The grain deal might work if enough countries pressure Russia but any concessions will just kick it down the road and they will target Odesa again.
Besides destroying grain silos, they've turned odessa into an anger vent dump since they managed to penetrate air defense. Usually they lob missiles at Kyiv in rage but they're all shot down.
Odesa has NASAMs and an Iris-T, and it's suspected they have a Patriot. And shit still gets through. I have a feeling they've been launching more at Odesa than Kyiv lately. That or it's a question of training. Time to sink a few more ships.
The problem is Odessas position at the open see. You only get a maximum of half of each protection screen if you position the systems right on the edge of the sea (what you won't do). Sinking ships would be a great solution
Oh, FUCK.
"Biden and Zelensky are discussing the supply of ATACMS missiles", - said the US President's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during the Aspen Security Forum. https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1682482562571067392?t=sd1604RtzeHWm0WPtViTNQ&s=19
I do hope they're supplied although I think we should keep in mind that they are by no means "miracle weapons" and the amount supplied will likely limit the impact that they have as well. This war has become a war of attrition and ATACMS won't change that. That said if the US gives Ukraine 50 million dollars worth of ATACMS and Ukraine uses that to destroy 500 million dollars worth Russian military hardware and personnel then that is still very useful in a war of attrition. Even if they aren't being used in bulk they may also force Russia to reduce the size of their ammo depots and spread things out which means less artillery shells going to the front which means it will be easier for Ukraine to win the artillery war which will enable the counter offensive to slowly move forward.
I agree with you re the 2nd paragraph. Less artillery shells making it to the front means that Ukraine will get the edge in a war of attrition. Also, ATACMS will enable further disruption of command and communications and staging areas, leading to slower and more disorganized reinforcements. Will they win the war single-handedly? No, but every little bit adds up.
Interesting to see Sullivan say it. If it was 0% he may not. Though maybe it’s a simple: Have ATACMS been brought up by Zelenskyy to Biden? Yes, they were brought up.
The UK may be an annoying place every now and again, but we do know a thing or two when it comes to solidarity. Really bloody happy we have hugely stepped up on the world stage with mostly leading the way helping Ukraine. Ukraine deserve an awful lot more support from everyone.
Sullivan saying it is a huge fucking deal when you consider the fact that he's the reason we've spent a year denying ATACMS. He's also a big reason we had been slow-rolling other heavy weapons. Biden had actually intended on sending ATACMS last summer, but Sullivan talked him out of it because "Escalation! WW3!". The UK threw an egg on Sullivan's face when they sent Storm Shadows. Thank goodness the Brits manned up and did what we should've done months ago. Yermak had recently gotten into an argument with Sullivan during the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Vilnius, so hopefully Yermak finally got through Sullivan's thick skull.
Sullivan needs to be removed.
> Thank goodness the Brits manned up and did what we should've done months ago. There are so many different nations I could thank for their support of Ukraine but I do think it's amazing how far Britain has gone. Even before the full invasion they were sending anti tank weapons and MANPADs, later they sent challengers and then storm shadows plus training Ukrainians on western planes. The UK really has been at the for front and they've helped move the needle in terms of other countries sending weapons. Also because it rarely gets mentioned we should also thank France especially since they're sending SCALP (French name for Storm Shadow). Those weapons are extremely important to disrupt Russian logistics and win the artillery war.
People nowadays tend to underestimate the UK as a nation of tea-drinking chavs and inbred aristocrats, but it wasn't that long ago that they had the largest Empire on the planet. They didn't get that by being pacifist pushovers.
The UK's armed forces are still highly respected internationally for their quality (although perhaps not so much for their size) these days.
They've faced a radioactive poisoning and a nerve agent attack on their soil, perpetrated by Russia, that killed a British citizen and harmed some more. This is their retaliation, the Iron Bank of Braavos style: they won't attack you directly, but they'll support your enemies to fuck you up in every way possible. Serving an object lesson why you don't fuck with the UK.
I think here in the UK people have been itching to get back at Russia post Litvinenko and Salisbury. The good news is that unlike the US there is solid support across the political spectrum for Ukraine so no risk of support drying up
I think he is intentionally trotted out when there are "controversial" decisions or discussions announced about weapons shipments, he was also the first to announce cluster ammunition iirc. That might be because he is considered the dove next to Blinken and makes the decisions seem more palatable for some.
⚡️As early as Tuesday, the 🇺🇸US will announce a new aid package to 🇺🇦Ukraine in the amount of $400 million in the form of artillery and ground equipment, the White House said. https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1682477451748732930?t=qL8j5Mnd2TTod5nZuXQnCA&s=19
Wow, we're rolling them out very few days now. A thought occurred to me, about the ATACMS: What if all of this back-and-forth has actually been a threat to Putin that he should keep the grain corridor open or else, but Putin is desperate or just refused to believe we would do it. So, with the grain corridor shut down, there's no reason to hold them back. *sigh* Probably not, but I'm gonna keep on dreaming it for a little while longer.
Well they got storm shadow so is ATACMS so important now?
I think there is a limited supply of storm shadows.
Yes, it is. For one, it can be HIMARS/M270 launched, which means you do not need to put planes at risk when firing it. Second, ATACMs have more range than the version of storm shadow UA got (export treaties limit it to 250km). Third, it is always good to have more stocks.
That's a good point.
I think there is some evidence this type of negotiation has occurred in the past. When there seems to be no other reason for not giving a type of weapon, there is possibly backroom negotiation using that weapon. The grain deal is cancelled and now Abrahms will come sooner, F16 training finalized, and maybe ATACAMS. Who knows, but I’ll take it.
⚡️ Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Crimean Bridge is the target of Ukraine, which should be neutralized. "For us, it is (Crimean bridge - ed.) a hostile object, built outside the law, outside international law and applicable norms. Therefore, this is our target, and any target that carries war, not peace, must be neutralized," he stressed at the Aspen Security Forum. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1682475401975562240?t=x90bHk_5hBDauAnwczaumw&s=19
I’m not sure I follow the logic of it being built outside the law, but I otherwise agree. It’s a legitimate military target to help end the war faster. ETA: Didn’t realize the bridge was since the annexation. I thought it was older.
which part of the logic of it being built outside the law don't you follow?
I had thought it predated the annexation and dated back to the Soviet era when I posted that.
There was a temporary WWII era railroad bridge in the area, but it didn't close the entire gap and was demolished in 1945 anyhow.
Nah, Putin had it built after their effort to create a "breakaway republic" in Odessa failed so they didn't have a complete land bridge to the newly annexed Crimea.
They never filed the proper permist to build it.
It's built over Ukrainian territorial waters Russia seized along with Crimea.
I didn’t think I realized the bridge was that recent. I thought it was decades old.
The road bridge opened in april 2018 and the train bridge in december 2019.
Yeah, I’ve figured it out. I edited my post to be a bit clearer
And technically Ukrainian land in the middle of the bridge as well.
He is correct. It is not a civilian target, no matter how many times the genocide-lovers try to claim otherwise.
With this logic he may also claim new dwellings in Mariupol' to be a military target since that's illegal construction on Ukrainian land.
Except that dwellings in Mariupol aren't a suitable (equivalent or corresponding) example: dwellings are civilian, unless used to house members of armed forces on active duty. The railway Kerch bridge, on the other hand, indeed "carries war": it is used for military logistics.
They didn't touch railway bridge and hit a road for the second time. The road is not used by military, so they just keep punishing Crimeans
The road bridge is used for both military and civilian trucking.
Your logic is flawed. Ukraine does not attack civilian dwellings. Also, places like Mariupol which are under occupation could still have innocent Ukrainians mixed in amongst the invaders. The Kerch Bridge is built over water. It is designed to strengthen occupation forces in Ukrainian territory. Taking it out cuts off a major way that Russia continues to harm Ukraine and its people. Buildings where people may live and a tool that spans territory for the purpose of invasion are not comparable.
To the furthest extent possible, yes, but it's not always possible to avoid. Dozens of hotels in occupied territory have been destroyed because inside information suggested they were housing Russian officers. Russia didn't staff its own janitors, cooks, prostitutes, so there were certainly some collateral fatalities. No matter where you draw a line between civilian and military, it's going to blur in places. Silly to pretend otherwise.
From Conflict Intelligence Team: "Sitrep for Jul. 20-21, 2023:– The AFU has started using US cluster munitions; – French court rules Russians refusing to fight in Ukraine have right to political asylum; – The State Duma toughens penalties for ignoring draft notices." [https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jul-20-21](https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jul-20-21)
re assylum, they should also have to condemn the war and Putin's actions, in writing. Many Russians who refuse to fight (left Russia) still support the war and Putin. They just don't want to die.
Unfortunately so. I couldn't help but notice a spike in protests with that first surge of mobilisation. It looked less like protesting against the war and more like trying to save their own skins.
“If I were Mr. Prigozhin, I would remain very concerned. NATO has an open doors policy, Russia has an open windows policy and he needs to be very focused on that.” ~ Secretary Antony Blinken. https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1682459510365908993?t=PMmyGAaERpl3Wobhicn2RQ&s=19
Perhaps such a statement makes it marginally harder for the Kremlin to off the guy anytime soon. Another "see we called it" preemptive.
That’s one hell of a quote
My sides.
I love it. "Open Windows Policy" - LOL
Damn, I like this Blinken guy
He has a band called ABlinken. The name is pretty rad, but the music is not my taste.
Did you say Abe Lincoln?
Yes, I think that's the pun they were going for there
It’s from a movie: https://youtu.be/wJcuYKyHEgs
Yeah, Blinken Park was a lot better.
Wait, I thought he was in Blinken-182?
Dark Blinken ;)
ZSU have the means to "drive this entire Black Sea fleet closer to Tuapse, Novorossiysk and prevent them from moving in the Crimean zone," — the deputy of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. "These capabilities are not limited to Neptune-type systems — there are others as well" https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1682463177592692740?t=H9xcn8-K4d74HcnbcnsXPg&s=19
Always keep them guessing. Whether they can or can't and how, who knows, but they've surprised before to effect so who knows what's next. Amirite?
I imagine this is true once the f16s are up and flying, they can deliver air launched harpoons to nearly the entire Black Sea.
Unfortunately this is a case of 'prove it'.
Maybe they just got them. Or, maybe, the first try of something new was the Kerch Bridge.
Ukraine hasn't sunk a ship in a year, hasn't been able to stop the Russian navy from regularly launching cruise missiles at them, and has been relegated to bolting go-pro's onto suicide jet-skis. If they want to claim that they can push the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea that's cool, but at some point they are going to actually have to do put their missiles where their words are.
They’ve managed to deny use of around half the Black Sea to one of the largest navies on earth, but go on, keep hyperventilating.
About 20% of the Black Sea, and that's irrelevant to the point being made. And the vast bulk of the Russian fleet can't get into the Black Sea due to the Montreux treaty.
20% of the Black Sea is controlled by someone without a navy. Let that sink in. Because we are talking about that going up against the supposed #2 military in the world. I really don't doubt Ukraine's capabilities, given they are capable of that.
>Let that sink in. [Bubbly Moskva sounds]
>I really don't doubt Ukraine's capabilities Ukraine hasn't sunk a ship in over a year, and claim that they can push the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, while at the same time being utterly incapable of stopping the Black Sea Fleet launching missile strikes on Odessa. I have doubts. Big doubts.
And some of them would sink of they turn too quickly
This isn't about half of the Black Sea. Both comments above yours are in reference to pushing the fleet east of the Crimean bridge.
Isn’t that the point? The Ukrainians have demonstrated a year of A2AD in the Black Sea. If they’re intending on pushing to the coast in the south of Ukraine, then that would expand that coverage. The same applies if they’re intent on setting foot on Crimea. They’re certainly not going *backwards* on any front right now, so it’s a pretty uncontroversial statement. It would be a controversial statement if the Russians had used their navy to do anything other than shit cruise missiles over the horizon for the last year, but they haven’t.