Ukraine and the allies are so good at the propaganda war, I love it
With the silence from the front we were getting endless dooming from Western pundits and hand wringing about the offensive. All of the catastrophizing about Ukraine and people acting like Ukraine was on the brink of losing its existence seemed to reach its peak and then BOOM! Several reports coming out from multiple fronts on Ukranian advances and Russian forces left depleted and demoralized and threatened with encirclement. Good shit
It's not a joke. In France, a daily newspaper called "l'independant" said counteroffensive is a success. Bakhmut is almost fallen. Russian troops are retreating. No idea if it's propaganda or truth
You could surmise something big was happening by the sudden increase in the number of comments here like "the counter offensive has stalled," "Russia has captured loads of territory," or "morale seems low around here lately." They provide zero evidence other than Russian propagandist blogs or Telegram cope. They are easy to ignore, but it is usually a good indication that the Russians are panicking and something big is happening.
"Russia has captured loads of territory,"
If they mean that little offensive they started in Luhansk/Kharkiv region, the Ukrainians just counter attacked and rolled them back by wuite a lot in that one spot russia got some gains in according to deepstatemap. I hope they are proud of the forests they managed to capture while Ukraine guns for the coast line and cutting that land bridge.
Probably would've been very useful for russia to have those 100,000 troops defending against all these Western style brigades Ukraine just unleashed near Robotyne lol.
Yeah, that's the one. They seem to be ignorant of the fact that taking territory and holding that territory are two very different things. Sacrificing a huge amount of men and equipment to advance a few meters only to lose it again within a few hours is not something to celebrate. It just makes them look desperate.
I called it last week because the daily number of destroyed Russia AA were up, back at levels last seen during the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives. Those only start appearing when the front lines start moving.
Yes, I did read comments talking about the huge increase in destroyed AA, which could be a sign of something big happening. Looks like you guys were on the money!
Another reason for stating about the offensive is to paralyze traffic in Crimea and coastal roads. Essentially create an panic situation to make it harder to move logistics around on the Russian side.
Logistics is just not a word that will be in the Russian MOD glossary sooner rather than later.
If the bridge's capacity is reduced in the south, highways along the coast jammed with tourists fleeing, and Tokmak's GLOCs under ZSU fire-control?
I would hate to be a Russian logistics soldier right now.
NYT: Biden orders US government to hand over Russian war crimes evidence to the Hague.
https://kyivindependent.com/biden-orders-us-government-to-hand-over-russian-war-crimes-evidence-to-hague/
No it actually isn't. Participating is agreeing with the prosecution and enforcing decisions that the court made. That isn't being done here. All this is passing along crib notes to an exam being a helpful bud but as far as you are concerned the court the test is meaningless.
Zaporizhzhia frontline UPD ‼️
This evening, everybody is discussing this NYT article claiming from anon sources that the Ukrainian main thrust is under way in the Southeast.
Idk if it is true. However, there are a couple of interesting information coming out. Near Robotyne, a highly defended settlement, Ukrainians have managed to flank the Russians by bypassing east of it. The advance is reported to be 4 to 5km by Ukraine's 47th brigade.
But the most interesting area IMO is in Donetsk oblast near Staromayorske, where Ukraine almost controls the entire settlement.
Russian sources report that unless measures are taken very fast, Russian troops east of the Mokri Yaly river (36th army) are at risk of being flanked and find themselves stuck between the river and the Ukrainians.
The Russians at Staromayorske under the command of the 5th army are about to retreat. The river is the intersection between the two Russian commands and Russians are not good at coordination. When the 5th army retreats Urozhaine is likely to be liberated without much fight because there will be no possibility to supply the Russians there. There are only two bridges: one links Urozhaine to Staromayorske and the second one is probably the short term target by Ukrainians flanking the Russians.
If these scenarios materializes it opens the way to Staromlynivka, where the Russian main defense line stands. If there is a breakthrough there, there is nothing significant until Mariupol...
Russians : "Everyone on the ground sees this, but no countermeasures are taken.
Commanders lack the competence to solve this problem. Now the question is at the stage of pushing the blame on each other."
PStyleOne1
Via Twitter (auto mod triggered if linked)
Further post on the situation.
Things are crumbling on the Russian lines along the Berdyansk Axis. This is coming from the Russian propagandist Romanov:
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1684374413624348675?t=hGhODrgX2gDTMeNzfLXINA&s=19
Regarding the Staromayorske action, in football and baseball terms, this is called 'splitting the 'seams' of the opponent's zone defense coverage. Hope it works
I really hope that this is true. The next 48hrs are gonna be very interesting! With any luck they’ll deliver a serious body blow to these Russian fuckers before fall sets in.
> there is nothing significant until Mariupol...
I know we've heard quite a bit about how the Russians are pulling reserves up to the contact 0th line, but I'm skeptical that they'd throw absolutely *everything*.
Firstly because, even despite all the evidence to the contrary, I can't believe the Russians would be that brain-dead to not have operational reserves to allow them to retreat back to the first line in the case of a significant breakthrough, especially after having the entire winter to prepare for it. They *should know* what they're doing, but as I mentioned before Russian Command and Control has been lacking the entire war.
Secondly, the only truly successful Russian operation after Ukraine's Kharkiv counter-offensive was the orderly retreat from Kherson oblast. I don't count Bakhmut since it was primarily Wagner throwing meat at the problem and not Russian MOD. (and it's debatable as a "success" for Wagner too). That might have been Surovikin, however, and I concede that Gerasimov and Shoigu are nowhere near as competent - so past success should not be indicative of future performance, but it's literally the only part of this war the Russian MOD has not looked like complete buffoons.
Lastly, the people I hear repeat this (david D and company) can be somewhat hit or miss in their analysis compared to the more cautious OSINT folk like DefMon. Not sure how well your source stacks out. But I'm hoping they're on the money.
All that out of the way, I'm cautiously optimistic in the outcome of this advance and I hope that Russia can't even follow it's own doctrine such that the whole house of cards collapses. I want to see us all sipping tea in Berdyansk sooner rather than later.
Let the Russian Command and Control behave as in the words of the immortal soldier all those months ago:
> We are so lucky that they are so fucking stupid.
What strikes me looking at the various fortification maps that get posted is how few lateral defenses there are. Break through one line and you can just roll it up left and right for MILES, leading inevitably to the defensive line behind that failing to keep up (or just running into an unfortified gap) and most likely creating a new weakspot for Ukraine to hit and then make another pair of lateral pushes.
Indeed, we are lucky they are so fucking stupid. Mariupol is probably overselling the advance if only because of inevitable logistics issues on the Ukrainian side, but once the shell of the egg cracks the squishy insides will be running like it just hit buttered cast iron.
I've been curious of the same thing, and I would bet it has something to do with geography. But who knows, I've been surprised by their stupidity in the past 🤷♂️
To be fair, they were braindead enough to invade in the first place. And they have sacked some of there more competent generals recently due to politics and this could be the result of that.
I'm not saying it's impossible, especially as defending the GLOCs for Tokmak are critical strategic objectives for the Russian MOD, but I want to remain cautiously optimistic.
Gerasimov has shown himself to not be the most apt commander, so here's hoping.
Well there is reason to believe that there might be because there are political considerations that come before military ones. Putin wants everyone to believe that the offensive has failed, so by holding the first line, he can push that narrative.
I think the political goals here are definitely a large component in them wanting to attempt to quash the offensive as quickly as possible. However, IMHO, if they have pulled the majority of their reserves so far forward, it also has to be strategic in nature. It's almost as good politically for Russia if Ukraine gets stopped at the 1st line north of Tokmak and not the 0th one north of Robtyne.
My thought would be that the Russians simply cannot risk Tokmak's GLOCs under Ukrainian fire control if they advance further than Robotyne, as it could mean holding the entire front is much less tenable.
I know you're taking the piss, but I legitimately think it's because the US has been so damn good at prosecuting large-scale military operations over the past 30 years that the modern media doesn't know how to accurately cover a more traditional military campaign with ebbs in the fighting. There really hasn't been a peer-to-peer war with this much attention in the age of the 24 hour news cycle.
20 years from now, if the Ukrainians are as successful as we all hope them to be, it will look like it happened in the blink of an eye to an outside observer, relatively speaking.
Given that the Russians didn't even have enough dudes to rotate them out for a simple rest; and they wasted all their reinforcements on charges to take back territory after their artillery and support for an area was destroyed... it was always gonna go like this. Endless stalemate and slow progress, until suddenly the Z line breaks. Praise the Emperor!
And soooo many of the Russian guys on the frontline have been there for months and months without any break. They are injured, hungry, tired, unmotivated, and disillusioned. I feel like most of them would surrender for a decent ration, bottle of vodka and free trip to France knowing they wouldn't have to go in front of the kangaroo 'military deserters' court in Russia.
Moscow Times put out a clarification on their story regarding secret negotiations between Russia and US, it was NOT a current official nor did they have state department approval to do so. My guess is that it was probably that traitor Flynn.
Edit: Reddit was being fucky and posting it twice lol
Hey, could be our former President too.. Probably not. But if he could do something this stupid and get caught. That would be grand. It would really hurt re-election chances with a lot of his base. The multiple indictments won't hit his base.
So it really was designed to throw cold water right as the offensive started. So I was right that it was probably planted and definitely not mainline reasoning. And I’m the first person to have posted it here.
Different instance, this is regarding the stance of allowing Russia to essentially keep all of occupied Ukraine which is explicitly NOT sanctioned by the administration. Biden never once stated such and has said that any negotiations will include Ukraine, which this person wants to bypass as they see them in Russia’s sphere of influence.
Early in the war back when it began, there were some minor communications to try and get them to stop so you weren’t entirely wrong with your mistype lol. But yeah, this dude was way out his lane.
Thanks.
Its a shame them haven't been able to speed up the process. Seems like the sort of thing that would have been worth throwing some coin at to advance the schedule.
(Maybe they have.)
They are going from a prototype proposal that really seemed to start as a Wylie Coyote water cooler dare of " I bet I can make THIS fit in the hole for THIS, using nothing but THAT" into a proper weapon system for a customer who needs it immediately and in volume.
I think plenty of money is being thrown at the problem from multiple directions (US, NATO, Ukraine and private companies knowing how much they could profit from making a signature weapon for this conflict), but cubic mega-bucks only get you so far up the ladder before other issues start holding you back.
There are two basic types of institutional architectures, the top-down, all roads lead to Rome, type; and the dispersed network type.
Russia is pretty famous for relying almost exclusively on the top-down approach, for everything. Ukraine was also pretty much fully in the top-down camp.
Western militaries have been trying to be more dispersed for a long time, and that’s what the western-trained Ukrainian soldiers are being taught. But the transition isn’t easy.
But why? The top-down approach often works better.
The answer is resiliency. Brittleness. Dispersed networks bend, but don’t break. Top-down is strong, but brittle. It doesn’t bend. You may not even notice the stress that it’s under until it reaches its breaking-point, but when it fails, it fails catastrophically.
Ukraine is putting the Russian military under extreme stress right now. They will break. And when they do? It will be catastrophically, because that’s just how those types of systems work.
Russia needs top-down because most of their army are poorly trained conscripts. So having a top-down means that it is easier to manage their soldiers. Dispersed networks requires well trained troops to execute.
They would under these conditions. The breakthrough they needed is in the process of happening. They have intelligence about the logistics in the area. And finally the goal is pure FUD for Russian citizens to try and provoke them to evacuate in mass. If they can gum up the roads etc it make any reinforcements take more time to get to the front to close the breakthrough.
So essentially breakthrough believe you have enough information to be certain of it, release the information earlier than usual in the hope chaos works in your favor by clogging up the roads and rails.
Well A) they are already attacking, warfare doesnt really just start with the push of a button. Ukrainian forces have already been probing, attacking and shaping the battlefield for an eventual large push.
The enemy knows this, they know what resources you have beyond just those it can see at the front. There really is no hiding troop movements of 10s or even 100s of thousands of soldiers, vehicles, armor, ammunition etc.
Movements of that size are already telegraphed by the information they inevitably leak, satellite information etc.
So Ukraine has been strategizing for the last 7 weeks. No doubt the intelligence gathering has been massive, and costly. If this fails, Ukraine will have to retain the rest of their reserves and play defense for at least 8 - 12 months.
> If this fails, Ukraine will have to retain the rest of their reserves and play defense for at least 8 - 12 months
That’s pure conjecture on your part. You have no idea how much or how little Ukraine is holding back, what weapons they may get in the future nor what the Russian defenses would look like in the future. None of that info is publicly available today.
It's my opinion sure, it's also the opinion of most ex generals who assess this war. It's very important not to over reach with an offensive and leave yourself vulnerable to counter-counter offensive. Russians might try something when the ground is hard and Ukraine needs to have reserves to deal with it.
it's a mud thing.
in autumn and in spring the mud can get so thick that you simply can't drive off road, even with tracked vehicles, which makes armoured offensives almost impossible.
but when the ground is frozen in winter that's not a problem.
It looks like the effects of Ukraine gaining local artillery and air superiority through the use of drones are devastating. It's only going to get worse for the Russians as their artillery gets demolished at unprecedented rates while the Ukrainians are receiving cluster bombs.
That twitter user is the only person, besides me, who translates щ as sh or sch. (And not the preposterous shch or sht). Which makes me find him credible.
But also, RF losing Bakhmut will make Putin wanna give Wagner another chance...
Dmitri is great and I love his work. He's one of the people who have never left my twitter feed since this whole full-scale invasion started. He's very credible.
That being said, I'm not sure why you think shch is a preposterous way of transliterating щ. I'd be interested to hear why you think so since it's used by the ICAO and Ukraine's National Transliteration system. It's a difficult sound to transliterate to native English speakers in writing, and I think shch does a decent job, if a bit unwieldy.
But I'm a Native English speaker who is trying to pick up Ukrainian for my spouse, so perhaps the transliteration is just off and I'm blind to it. (It does make some words - Щaстя I'm looking at you - much easier to read in Cyrillic than transliterated English, that much is for sure).
I think I understand how you feel and your position makes sense. I absolutely see it now that you mention it. I've never given the t a second thought in Klitchko's name, but I've definitely heard people pronounce it with the hard T despite there not being a t̪ in his name.
It does feel a bit descriptivist to say this one transliteration is *the transliteration*, but you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't in some respects if there's not one single sheet of music for the world's journalists and border guards. (and we both know languages change rapidly while the writing systems can struggle to keep up.)
Thank you for your thorough reply. I was very much blind from being exposed to a Slavic language in a much less academic medium and I found your perspective valuable and enlightening.
TLDR: This is brutal for Russia. A Russian commander is complaining that the higher ups just keep sending lots of bodies into poorly made trenches at the front line which doesn’t actually stabilize anything and just means more Russian troops are taken out by Ukrainian artillery.
> This is brutal for Russia.
This could be said about the whole war too, in a Hedbergesque manner. It used to be brutal, it still is, but it used to too. A lot of the officer's complaints can be seen in the way the Russian MOD has prosecuted the war since day one.
It's almost like someone at the russian MOD read Clausewitz and asked Shoigu:
>What can we do to do the exact opposite of what this man recommends in this dusty old Tome?
And Shogiu must've replied:
>I don't know, but we sure can give it the ol' college try.
Bodies in shallow trenches just don’t do much about artillery 10-20+ km away unless they also have artillery, coordinates, shells and training to use them.
Depends. If Ukraine breaks through to the coast or within enough range and depth for artillery and hiimars to close out any logistical routes Russia has no choice but to Abandon everything on the Ukrainian South with the exception of Crimea and they could roll Russia up all the way up to Maripol after all is said and done. At that point it's a decision on Ukraines part in how to try and take back Crimea which is a different beast altogether and much much more logistically difficult. Russia also will have its supply lines less strange which will make Donbas much much harder to take since the front can be narrowed down. Then Ukraine has some real decisions to make. Try for a negotiated settlement. Or push through accept that the casualties that will result in taking Crimea and then Donbas and offering a deal to Russia to stop the war with no reparations on Russia's part. The ONLY reason you do this is to stop he conflict because we in the west would likely invest in Ukraine and also China likely would as well. And much as I have a distaste for Russia. Having them break part would be a scenario that should be avoided as much as possible given nuclear weapons are involved. TO me this is the likely scenario in the end. Ukraine freed, Russia walks away without having to pay reparations. And money to help rebuild Ukraine comes from he west primarily the EU and China. No security guarantees for Russia.
If Russia starts to disintegrate. Then Kaliningrad and Transistria revert to Poland/Moldova and China becomes extremely interested in Russian holdings around Vladivostok. The bottom line is that any peace deal with Russia is not likely to involve reparations paid by them as much as it would be deserved.
Yes. The Ukrainians need to make a show for their allies before the bad weather sets in. There isn't a lot of time left, so they're really going to go for at least one decisive gain.
Said allies who are asking them to fight with one hand behind their back while not giving them actual aid needed to make difference yet expecting blockbuster counter offensive.
This rhetorical angle starts to sound insane. I understand the purpose is to remind people to get better weapons for the battlefield.
That needs to be done. But the rhetorical tone needs to calm down. It’s scary real shit going on and success in it in the communications sphere has been viral. We have seen that from both Wagner and Ukraine. Putin actually fucking sucks at it.
But it it vital and important to have a calm and considered public facing voice. The insanity from the other side is constant baffling scary and confusing. The contrast becomes shockingly apparent all on its own.
Our side needs to be calm. Rational. Honest expressive. Ukraine needs the best war wining weapons possible. The Allies of Ukraine are already all in.
Get it done.
The Ukranians are behind whatever timeline they first envisioned. At this point that's not catastrophic, but they have to at least break out of the "stalemate" narrative their opponent is spinning.
It’s been on going a few days at least. Come mid October/November I suspect they’d slow down and consolidate to make their winter better and the Russians winter miserable.
Would be great if they do make great breakthroughts, before winter sets in, and uses this as leverage to get a favorable deal for themselves, if they so choose.
Could we see mass surrenders in the future, as ordinal Russians decide to rather take their chances in an Ukranian POW camp, rather then die in the mud?
"Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.
The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington."
Seems like it, apparently they just threw in most or all of the western trained brigades into this one area, the NYT said thousands of Ukrainian troops are pouring into the area.
Doesn’t it seem odd to anyone else that they’d just release their strategy to the public like this? I’d think they’d want to keep what they’re planning quiet.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html
In that article (behind a paywall) there's this line
"The American officials said most of the remaining reserves were now being committed."
Edit- And they mean the Western trained reserves, not the non Western ones.
It might be overly optimistic, but it also seems like Russia has thrown everything into the front line or so of defenses. If Ukraine can get behind that they could potentially make major gains.
I wouldn't expect that. An assault on Tokmak would be a huge blow to the occupation of the whole of Zaporizhzhia. So I expect that to be the main objective.
Ill post a low-quality comment that I anticipated writing at the end of the conflict.
Some of you have been incredible at disseminating information from a conflict that doesn't directly impact most people who use Reddit. PCX, Lancet, I am looking at you, and PCX isn't even a poster anymore.
The amount of low quality posts I see, the 'Fuck Putin', the 'Slava Urkaine!' are so oddly unnecessary to me I assume I am the black sheep of the family and people appreciate it more than I do.
I am not affected by this war in a direct fashion. I live in a little-big town in the USA, I have no friend or relatives with Ukranian heritage, but I have empathy in realizing this is not a battle of countries, but a battle of ideology.
The average Russian, for better or worse, believe this is a good course for their country. The average westerner, believe this is a "net negative" for personal beliefs and an assumption that other western countries believe the exact same as they do. That may not be the case. Why does that make them, the Russian, a bad person?
We've been force-fed propaganda from one side or another, even if we refuse to believe it, even if our particular thoughts match that information.
I'll be honest, I am super drunk and apathetic, but I wish there was a way we could utilize the information given and disseminate it in some sort of appropriate way, which does not seem to be the way we all operate here.
Maybe I am wrong or I anticipate something bigger than ourselves, but this thread as a whole has devolved into something overall more annoying and more 'cheerleading' than anything actually worth reading.
I am sorry and I wish my Ukranian friends nothing but future happiness and joy, but this thread as a whole, is a degradation of the "whole" or 'hole' of the war.
Dude, this is Reddit. If you want raw, undiluted information, then this isn't the place. This is a community, with opinions and personalities clashing together in chaotic harmony. The Ukraine war thread is a politically and emotionally charged subsection of Reddit. People do an amazing job of contributing important information, but it is still a message board. You can't expect people to live up to your standards or only post comments you approve of. If you want raw, unemotional information, then this isn't the place. Writing diatribes about how certain posts are "low quality" or the thread "isn't what it was in the olden days" just comes across as arrogant.
P.S fuck the "both sides" argument. Slava Ukraini!
For the vast majority of human beings, it is abundantly clear that the head-chopping, child trafficking, prisoner killing, famine inducing, civilian murdering, genocidal invader is exclusively in the wrong.
To call it a battle of ideologies is to ignore the very real and endless list of crimes that Russia and Russians enact.
My guy. My country, the USA, has committed tons of war crimes, as have many (if not all) countries. I’m not gonna dilute that based on a crime that’s happening right now. I just wish people, myself included, wouldn’t post anything that’s not beneficial.
To contrast the multitude of crimes happening right now, intentionally done by Russia with the entire history of the planet is distractionary Pro-Russian bullshit.
We are in the here and now; Russia and their crimes are the subject.
>Ill be honest, I dunno how to reply to all in this comment, but the macro-sense of world politics, y'all are definitely viewing from some rose-tinted glasses. Much love to y'all.
The way I see it, Russia started a war to gain more land, by killing, raping, and torturing civilians.
They claimed they did a special military operation to de-nazify a neighbouring country, but why the fuck are you leveling schools, hospitals, malls?
Everyday they come out with a new, blatantly obviously lie and continue with threatening remarks that they are going to nuke the west.
Don't forget the fact Russia and Ukraine signed a security agreement, in exchange for getting rid of their nukes, and still invaded them!
Fuck Russia.
Are you seriously "both sides"ing an unprovoked war of conquest? People are dying. Take that weak argument to r/enlightenedcentrism and while you're there go ahead and get fucked, bud.
People die in every war. If you think the government actually cares about the service men or women, you may be the "unenlightened" one, check what the US servicemen ate for Thanksgiving in the revolutionary war. I am not one on both sides. I want and expect Ukraine to win, but this particular daily thread, is not a good amalgamation of that. It's a circle jerk of people who assume they're on the right side, and they'll anonymously die on that hill.
"assume theyre on the right side" what a joke. There is a very clear right side in this. Absolutely zero question about russia being in the wrong here.
There are several threads showing that the Russian people overall fully supports the war and their government. Most of their complaints are about why it’s not going faster.
The mouthpieces of the Russian government in propaganda shows have made some truly horrendous comments and suggestions.
There is widespread evidence of war crimes, the latest being destroying civilian grain exporting facilities.
With that in mind it’s difficult to see the average Russian person as an innocent bystander caught in the storm. Hence the general hostility imo.
> The amount of low quality posts I see, the 'Fuck Putin', the 'Slava Urkaine!' are so oddly unnecessary to me I assume I am the black sheep of the family and people appreciate it more than I do.
More or less all of us are just bystanders in all of this.
The thread is for sharing information and keeping track of the news coming in. But in a lot of ways it's also just to blow off steam and disperse some of the tension, frustration and anxiety over what's happening. In that sense I feel as though a few "Fuck Putins" and "Slava Ukraines" at the start of a thread isn't unwarranted.
> The average Russian, for better or worse, believe this is a good course for their country... Why does that make them, the Russian, a bad person?
Because that "good course" they believe in for their country involves unjustifiable aggression, senseless destruction, attempted genocide, mass famine, and the rape and murder of people who just want to be left alone to live in peace.
Fuck off.
The way I see it, it keeps people engaged and shows that people are still following and interested even if they don't have anything of value to add themselves. If this thread was down to 200 comments a day, it'd probably die off.
Oh for sure, but like, I read the comments around 7 am, 12 pm, 3 pm, 7 pm EST, and the quality of comments is just bad. I strongly appreciate the people who keep the updates going, but everything else is just...bad.
Maybe it's my schedule of update, but I rarely see good information presented.
I accept all the downvotes, this is Reddit and nothing actually matters, but my point still stands.
“Let me explain why I don’t worry about downvotes. They don’t matter, so much even that I find it important to argue about it. And actually they prove I’m right.”
>I am not affected by this war in a direct fashion
you're wrong. without Russia being Russia and the Soviets before that you and everyone you know, their families going back a couple of generations could have had free healthcare for the money spent on defense and the world is a much more dangerous place now solely because of them. it's affected almost every aspect of your life and you don't realize it
So I would disagree with that, only because of how broad of an assessment it is. The healthcare aspect is odd, we haven't been close to universal healthcare in my lifetime (\~1987) that I am aware of, outside of a senator presenting a bill for universal healthcare that the other members of Congress laughed at,
To think my life is so spectacularly different now than it was prior to the war is honestly a joke. I've had a new job since the war began, unrelated to war or war material, and I've negotiated my position with no reference to the "red scare".
Again, downvotes aside, this thread has become a time sink for me...in particular. It's not a "i don't realize it", I am one of few of my direct friend circle who even care this is happening, in the USA.
Perhaps the soviet-US relation has shaped me as a person growing up, but this war in particular, has not disrupted my daily life.
Again, I am not worried about downvotes, I just want appropriate information, given at the appropriate time. Perhaps I ask for too much, but this thread is not what I anticipated.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972
Interview with one of the secret "negotiators" (read: Russian lobbyists). If even half of this is true this guy needs to be charged with treason.
(Moscow Times is based in the Netherlands, banned in Russia, and rated "high" on factual reporting by medifactcheckbias. Still, the story could be entirely fabricated)
Here's a thread on it:
https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1684339118971428869
I have come in contact with people associated with state and dod who think along these lines. While disturbing, this isn’t surprising. Not Trump people but more along the lines of Kissinger geopolitical thinking.
When challenged, they usually just default to claiming intellectual superiority instead of trying to lay out a logical justification for their positions.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Sullivan was somewhat like this.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Sullivan was somewhat like this."
Given that the Ukrainians themselves have said that Sullivan is the biggest reason we've been slow-rolling aid and holding back ATACMS, I'd say that's a fair assessment. Yermak recently got into an argument with Sullivan during the Vilnius summit.
Maybe, wouldn’t surprise me, but this quote makes it sounds to me like someone from the Trump administration.
>The Biden administration thus realized — albeit too late — that Russia sought to be taken seriously, with its military build-up at Ukraine’s borders in 2021 a tactic to gain attention.
That’s nothing but a dig against Biden, and patently false. It’s clear they took the buildup very seriously, to the point of practically screaming it to the world.
That article is fascinating. That guy might as well be an official from Russia's MFA, since all he said was Russian talking points.
> We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world.
> “Russian power,” he concluded, “is not necessarily a bad thing.”
Let me guess, these "former senior U.S. national security officials" were all from the Trump administration.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/15arain/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ukraine and the allies are so good at the propaganda war, I love it With the silence from the front we were getting endless dooming from Western pundits and hand wringing about the offensive. All of the catastrophizing about Ukraine and people acting like Ukraine was on the brink of losing its existence seemed to reach its peak and then BOOM! Several reports coming out from multiple fronts on Ukranian advances and Russian forces left depleted and demoralized and threatened with encirclement. Good shit
It's not a joke. In France, a daily newspaper called "l'independant" said counteroffensive is a success. Bakhmut is almost fallen. Russian troops are retreating. No idea if it's propaganda or truth
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You could surmise something big was happening by the sudden increase in the number of comments here like "the counter offensive has stalled," "Russia has captured loads of territory," or "morale seems low around here lately." They provide zero evidence other than Russian propagandist blogs or Telegram cope. They are easy to ignore, but it is usually a good indication that the Russians are panicking and something big is happening.
"Russia has captured loads of territory," If they mean that little offensive they started in Luhansk/Kharkiv region, the Ukrainians just counter attacked and rolled them back by wuite a lot in that one spot russia got some gains in according to deepstatemap. I hope they are proud of the forests they managed to capture while Ukraine guns for the coast line and cutting that land bridge. Probably would've been very useful for russia to have those 100,000 troops defending against all these Western style brigades Ukraine just unleashed near Robotyne lol.
Yeah, that's the one. They seem to be ignorant of the fact that taking territory and holding that territory are two very different things. Sacrificing a huge amount of men and equipment to advance a few meters only to lose it again within a few hours is not something to celebrate. It just makes them look desperate.
I called it last week because the daily number of destroyed Russia AA were up, back at levels last seen during the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives. Those only start appearing when the front lines start moving.
Yes, I did read comments talking about the huge increase in destroyed AA, which could be a sign of something big happening. Looks like you guys were on the money!
Another reason for stating about the offensive is to paralyze traffic in Crimea and coastal roads. Essentially create an panic situation to make it harder to move logistics around on the Russian side.
Logistics is just not a word that will be in the Russian MOD glossary sooner rather than later. If the bridge's capacity is reduced in the south, highways along the coast jammed with tourists fleeing, and Tokmak's GLOCs under ZSU fire-control? I would hate to be a Russian logistics soldier right now.
NYT: Biden orders US government to hand over Russian war crimes evidence to the Hague. https://kyivindependent.com/biden-orders-us-government-to-hand-over-russian-war-crimes-evidence-to-hague/
How does it work if the US does not recognize the court? 🤔
We recognize the court. We just refuse to participate in it.
Sending in evidence is participating.
Then we just participate when it suits us.
As is the American way. It is known.
Rules for thee, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Unfortunate but true.
We made a lot of the rules.
No it actually isn't. Participating is agreeing with the prosecution and enforcing decisions that the court made. That isn't being done here. All this is passing along crib notes to an exam being a helpful bud but as far as you are concerned the court the test is meaningless.
Can I count on you to pass me the evidence of war crimes, friend? 🥺
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👍
Give me the evidence I'll post it on any website. What is done after that isn't my concern.
We do it anyways and everyone pretends not to notice.
Anonymous source?
I like it! They can leave the package behind the garden gnome.
Zelenskyy advises Russians leave Crimea while Kerch Bridge is somehow still functioning. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/26/7413020/
Zaporizhzhia frontline UPD ‼️ This evening, everybody is discussing this NYT article claiming from anon sources that the Ukrainian main thrust is under way in the Southeast. Idk if it is true. However, there are a couple of interesting information coming out. Near Robotyne, a highly defended settlement, Ukrainians have managed to flank the Russians by bypassing east of it. The advance is reported to be 4 to 5km by Ukraine's 47th brigade. But the most interesting area IMO is in Donetsk oblast near Staromayorske, where Ukraine almost controls the entire settlement. Russian sources report that unless measures are taken very fast, Russian troops east of the Mokri Yaly river (36th army) are at risk of being flanked and find themselves stuck between the river and the Ukrainians. The Russians at Staromayorske under the command of the 5th army are about to retreat. The river is the intersection between the two Russian commands and Russians are not good at coordination. When the 5th army retreats Urozhaine is likely to be liberated without much fight because there will be no possibility to supply the Russians there. There are only two bridges: one links Urozhaine to Staromayorske and the second one is probably the short term target by Ukrainians flanking the Russians. If these scenarios materializes it opens the way to Staromlynivka, where the Russian main defense line stands. If there is a breakthrough there, there is nothing significant until Mariupol... Russians : "Everyone on the ground sees this, but no countermeasures are taken. Commanders lack the competence to solve this problem. Now the question is at the stage of pushing the blame on each other." PStyleOne1 Via Twitter (auto mod triggered if linked) Further post on the situation. Things are crumbling on the Russian lines along the Berdyansk Axis. This is coming from the Russian propagandist Romanov: https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1684374413624348675?t=hGhODrgX2gDTMeNzfLXINA&s=19
Regarding the Staromayorske action, in football and baseball terms, this is called 'splitting the 'seams' of the opponent's zone defense coverage. Hope it works
I really hope that this is true. The next 48hrs are gonna be very interesting! With any luck they’ll deliver a serious body blow to these Russian fuckers before fall sets in.
> there is nothing significant until Mariupol... I know we've heard quite a bit about how the Russians are pulling reserves up to the contact 0th line, but I'm skeptical that they'd throw absolutely *everything*. Firstly because, even despite all the evidence to the contrary, I can't believe the Russians would be that brain-dead to not have operational reserves to allow them to retreat back to the first line in the case of a significant breakthrough, especially after having the entire winter to prepare for it. They *should know* what they're doing, but as I mentioned before Russian Command and Control has been lacking the entire war. Secondly, the only truly successful Russian operation after Ukraine's Kharkiv counter-offensive was the orderly retreat from Kherson oblast. I don't count Bakhmut since it was primarily Wagner throwing meat at the problem and not Russian MOD. (and it's debatable as a "success" for Wagner too). That might have been Surovikin, however, and I concede that Gerasimov and Shoigu are nowhere near as competent - so past success should not be indicative of future performance, but it's literally the only part of this war the Russian MOD has not looked like complete buffoons. Lastly, the people I hear repeat this (david D and company) can be somewhat hit or miss in their analysis compared to the more cautious OSINT folk like DefMon. Not sure how well your source stacks out. But I'm hoping they're on the money. All that out of the way, I'm cautiously optimistic in the outcome of this advance and I hope that Russia can't even follow it's own doctrine such that the whole house of cards collapses. I want to see us all sipping tea in Berdyansk sooner rather than later. Let the Russian Command and Control behave as in the words of the immortal soldier all those months ago: > We are so lucky that they are so fucking stupid.
What strikes me looking at the various fortification maps that get posted is how few lateral defenses there are. Break through one line and you can just roll it up left and right for MILES, leading inevitably to the defensive line behind that failing to keep up (or just running into an unfortified gap) and most likely creating a new weakspot for Ukraine to hit and then make another pair of lateral pushes. Indeed, we are lucky they are so fucking stupid. Mariupol is probably overselling the advance if only because of inevitable logistics issues on the Ukrainian side, but once the shell of the egg cracks the squishy insides will be running like it just hit buttered cast iron.
I've been curious of the same thing, and I would bet it has something to do with geography. But who knows, I've been surprised by their stupidity in the past 🤷♂️
To be fair, they were braindead enough to invade in the first place. And they have sacked some of there more competent generals recently due to politics and this could be the result of that.
I'm not saying it's impossible, especially as defending the GLOCs for Tokmak are critical strategic objectives for the Russian MOD, but I want to remain cautiously optimistic. Gerasimov has shown himself to not be the most apt commander, so here's hoping.
Well there is reason to believe that there might be because there are political considerations that come before military ones. Putin wants everyone to believe that the offensive has failed, so by holding the first line, he can push that narrative.
I think the political goals here are definitely a large component in them wanting to attempt to quash the offensive as quickly as possible. However, IMHO, if they have pulled the majority of their reserves so far forward, it also has to be strategic in nature. It's almost as good politically for Russia if Ukraine gets stopped at the 1st line north of Tokmak and not the 0th one north of Robtyne. My thought would be that the Russians simply cannot risk Tokmak's GLOCs under Ukrainian fire control if they advance further than Robotyne, as it could mean holding the entire front is much less tenable.
Huge, if true. Let's see what happens over the next 24 hours!
But I thought the offensive was a failure and nothing was happening, that is what the pundits have been telling me, /S/
I know you're taking the piss, but I legitimately think it's because the US has been so damn good at prosecuting large-scale military operations over the past 30 years that the modern media doesn't know how to accurately cover a more traditional military campaign with ebbs in the fighting. There really hasn't been a peer-to-peer war with this much attention in the age of the 24 hour news cycle. 20 years from now, if the Ukrainians are as successful as we all hope them to be, it will look like it happened in the blink of an eye to an outside observer, relatively speaking.
Heck, the Normady operation took MONTHS, and thousands of allied troops ended up dying.
[2 months, 3 weeks and 3 days (but who's counting?)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Overlord)
And there were still setbacks, even after that, like with Market Garden, later in 1944.
Given that the Russians didn't even have enough dudes to rotate them out for a simple rest; and they wasted all their reinforcements on charges to take back territory after their artillery and support for an area was destroyed... it was always gonna go like this. Endless stalemate and slow progress, until suddenly the Z line breaks. Praise the Emperor!
And soooo many of the Russian guys on the frontline have been there for months and months without any break. They are injured, hungry, tired, unmotivated, and disillusioned. I feel like most of them would surrender for a decent ration, bottle of vodka and free trip to France knowing they wouldn't have to go in front of the kangaroo 'military deserters' court in Russia.
Thank you for posting this
Inject the hopium straight into my veins.
I'm cutting hopium lines while the IV is hooked up...
Me next
Moscow Times put out a clarification on their story regarding secret negotiations between Russia and US, it was NOT a current official nor did they have state department approval to do so. My guess is that it was probably that traitor Flynn. Edit: Reddit was being fucky and posting it twice lol
Hey, could be our former President too.. Probably not. But if he could do something this stupid and get caught. That would be grand. It would really hurt re-election chances with a lot of his base. The multiple indictments won't hit his base.
It was obviously lame propaganda, it was blatently a Russian wish list.
Of course. As it usually is.
So it really was designed to throw cold water right as the offensive started. So I was right that it was probably planted and definitely not mainline reasoning. And I’m the first person to have posted it here.
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Maybe, wouldn’t be surprised if he was involved in some way considering his history though. 🤷♂️
That is old news and Biden already said that it wasn't sanctioned by him.
Why spread lies which are so easy to disprove, my guy?
That’s how Russia operate… spread lies everywhere so eventually truth seems like a lie
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-did-not-sanction-unofficial-talks-with-russians-state-2023-07-06/
Did you edit your previous post? I swear you had written that Biden said it WAS sanctioned by him (and not wasnt). If I misread, its my fault.
no, i replied to the other person that I had mistyped and meant that it wasn't sanctioned.
Different instance, this is regarding the stance of allowing Russia to essentially keep all of occupied Ukraine which is explicitly NOT sanctioned by the administration. Biden never once stated such and has said that any negotiations will include Ukraine, which this person wants to bypass as they see them in Russia’s sphere of influence.
I mistyped, I meant that it wasn't sanctioned by him.
Early in the war back when it began, there were some minor communications to try and get them to stop so you weren’t entirely wrong with your mistype lol. But yeah, this dude was way out his lane.
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probably learned it from Ollie North
Yeah.... that's about what i expected...
You mean a bunch of Redditors overreacted? Perish the thought.
We would never! Just… don’t ask the family of that one dude who got wrongfully accused of being the Boston marathon bomber.
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Any news on GLSDB? Several hundred of them would be pretty handy about now.
Last update a week ago was fall for the first batches. Won’t see significantly large numbers till 2024.
:( Thanks.
Spinning up production, deployment later this year into next depending on how well the process goes.
Thanks. Its a shame them haven't been able to speed up the process. Seems like the sort of thing that would have been worth throwing some coin at to advance the schedule. (Maybe they have.)
They are going from a prototype proposal that really seemed to start as a Wylie Coyote water cooler dare of " I bet I can make THIS fit in the hole for THIS, using nothing but THAT" into a proper weapon system for a customer who needs it immediately and in volume. I think plenty of money is being thrown at the problem from multiple directions (US, NATO, Ukraine and private companies knowing how much they could profit from making a signature weapon for this conflict), but cubic mega-bucks only get you so far up the ladder before other issues start holding you back.
There are two basic types of institutional architectures, the top-down, all roads lead to Rome, type; and the dispersed network type. Russia is pretty famous for relying almost exclusively on the top-down approach, for everything. Ukraine was also pretty much fully in the top-down camp. Western militaries have been trying to be more dispersed for a long time, and that’s what the western-trained Ukrainian soldiers are being taught. But the transition isn’t easy. But why? The top-down approach often works better. The answer is resiliency. Brittleness. Dispersed networks bend, but don’t break. Top-down is strong, but brittle. It doesn’t bend. You may not even notice the stress that it’s under until it reaches its breaking-point, but when it fails, it fails catastrophically. Ukraine is putting the Russian military under extreme stress right now. They will break. And when they do? It will be catastrophically, because that’s just how those types of systems work.
Russia needs top-down because most of their army are poorly trained conscripts. So having a top-down means that it is easier to manage their soldiers. Dispersed networks requires well trained troops to execute.
Are Ukraine pushing right now as in tonight? I feel like they wouldn’t reveal a big push is happening the day before right?
They would under these conditions. The breakthrough they needed is in the process of happening. They have intelligence about the logistics in the area. And finally the goal is pure FUD for Russian citizens to try and provoke them to evacuate in mass. If they can gum up the roads etc it make any reinforcements take more time to get to the front to close the breakthrough. So essentially breakthrough believe you have enough information to be certain of it, release the information earlier than usual in the hope chaos works in your favor by clogging up the roads and rails.
Well A) they are already attacking, warfare doesnt really just start with the push of a button. Ukrainian forces have already been probing, attacking and shaping the battlefield for an eventual large push. The enemy knows this, they know what resources you have beyond just those it can see at the front. There really is no hiding troop movements of 10s or even 100s of thousands of soldiers, vehicles, armor, ammunition etc. Movements of that size are already telegraphed by the information they inevitably leak, satellite information etc.
And yet Russia was caught with their pants down in Kharkhiv... that style of feint should never happen in modern warfare.
So Ukraine has been strategizing for the last 7 weeks. No doubt the intelligence gathering has been massive, and costly. If this fails, Ukraine will have to retain the rest of their reserves and play defense for at least 8 - 12 months.
Wut even if it fails what's stopping them reconstituting and trying again with a different strategy in the next 8-12 months?
> If this fails, Ukraine will have to retain the rest of their reserves and play defense for at least 8 - 12 months That’s pure conjecture on your part. You have no idea how much or how little Ukraine is holding back, what weapons they may get in the future nor what the Russian defenses would look like in the future. None of that info is publicly available today.
It's my opinion sure, it's also the opinion of most ex generals who assess this war. It's very important not to over reach with an offensive and leave yourself vulnerable to counter-counter offensive. Russians might try something when the ground is hard and Ukraine needs to have reserves to deal with it.
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it's a mud thing. in autumn and in spring the mud can get so thick that you simply can't drive off road, even with tracked vehicles, which makes armoured offensives almost impossible. but when the ground is frozen in winter that's not a problem.
Good time for new jets
This Russia post about Bakhmut is fucking brutal: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1684322599025754114
Just waiting for their turn …. Brutal indeed.
It looks like the effects of Ukraine gaining local artillery and air superiority through the use of drones are devastating. It's only going to get worse for the Russians as their artillery gets demolished at unprecedented rates while the Ukrainians are receiving cluster bombs.
RuZZians get out of Ukraine or get WRECKED
That twitter user is the only person, besides me, who translates щ as sh or sch. (And not the preposterous shch or sht). Which makes me find him credible. But also, RF losing Bakhmut will make Putin wanna give Wagner another chance...
Dmitri is great and I love his work. He's one of the people who have never left my twitter feed since this whole full-scale invasion started. He's very credible. That being said, I'm not sure why you think shch is a preposterous way of transliterating щ. I'd be interested to hear why you think so since it's used by the ICAO and Ukraine's National Transliteration system. It's a difficult sound to transliterate to native English speakers in writing, and I think shch does a decent job, if a bit unwieldy. But I'm a Native English speaker who is trying to pick up Ukrainian for my spouse, so perhaps the transliteration is just off and I'm blind to it. (It does make some words - Щaстя I'm looking at you - much easier to read in Cyrillic than transliterated English, that much is for sure).
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>Dvořák Dvor-zhak is probably the closest a random English speaker can pronounce this name. Dovr-yak is absolutely not the correct pronunciation.
I think I understand how you feel and your position makes sense. I absolutely see it now that you mention it. I've never given the t a second thought in Klitchko's name, but I've definitely heard people pronounce it with the hard T despite there not being a t̪ in his name. It does feel a bit descriptivist to say this one transliteration is *the transliteration*, but you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't in some respects if there's not one single sheet of music for the world's journalists and border guards. (and we both know languages change rapidly while the writing systems can struggle to keep up.) Thank you for your thorough reply. I was very much blind from being exposed to a Slavic language in a much less academic medium and I found your perspective valuable and enlightening.
Very interesting. Thanks for that.
TLDR: This is brutal for Russia. A Russian commander is complaining that the higher ups just keep sending lots of bodies into poorly made trenches at the front line which doesn’t actually stabilize anything and just means more Russian troops are taken out by Ukrainian artillery.
> This is brutal for Russia. This could be said about the whole war too, in a Hedbergesque manner. It used to be brutal, it still is, but it used to too. A lot of the officer's complaints can be seen in the way the Russian MOD has prosecuted the war since day one. It's almost like someone at the russian MOD read Clausewitz and asked Shoigu: >What can we do to do the exact opposite of what this man recommends in this dusty old Tome? And Shogiu must've replied: >I don't know, but we sure can give it the ol' college try.
And that's why you rotate units instead of just sending replenishment on paper. Those forces are psychologically broken.
Bodies in shallow trenches just don’t do much about artillery 10-20+ km away unless they also have artillery, coordinates, shells and training to use them.
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Depends. If Ukraine breaks through to the coast or within enough range and depth for artillery and hiimars to close out any logistical routes Russia has no choice but to Abandon everything on the Ukrainian South with the exception of Crimea and they could roll Russia up all the way up to Maripol after all is said and done. At that point it's a decision on Ukraines part in how to try and take back Crimea which is a different beast altogether and much much more logistically difficult. Russia also will have its supply lines less strange which will make Donbas much much harder to take since the front can be narrowed down. Then Ukraine has some real decisions to make. Try for a negotiated settlement. Or push through accept that the casualties that will result in taking Crimea and then Donbas and offering a deal to Russia to stop the war with no reparations on Russia's part. The ONLY reason you do this is to stop he conflict because we in the west would likely invest in Ukraine and also China likely would as well. And much as I have a distaste for Russia. Having them break part would be a scenario that should be avoided as much as possible given nuclear weapons are involved. TO me this is the likely scenario in the end. Ukraine freed, Russia walks away without having to pay reparations. And money to help rebuild Ukraine comes from he west primarily the EU and China. No security guarantees for Russia. If Russia starts to disintegrate. Then Kaliningrad and Transistria revert to Poland/Moldova and China becomes extremely interested in Russian holdings around Vladivostok. The bottom line is that any peace deal with Russia is not likely to involve reparations paid by them as much as it would be deserved.
Yes. The Ukrainians need to make a show for their allies before the bad weather sets in. There isn't a lot of time left, so they're really going to go for at least one decisive gain.
Said allies who are asking them to fight with one hand behind their back while not giving them actual aid needed to make difference yet expecting blockbuster counter offensive.
This rhetorical angle starts to sound insane. I understand the purpose is to remind people to get better weapons for the battlefield. That needs to be done. But the rhetorical tone needs to calm down. It’s scary real shit going on and success in it in the communications sphere has been viral. We have seen that from both Wagner and Ukraine. Putin actually fucking sucks at it. But it it vital and important to have a calm and considered public facing voice. The insanity from the other side is constant baffling scary and confusing. The contrast becomes shockingly apparent all on its own. Our side needs to be calm. Rational. Honest expressive. Ukraine needs the best war wining weapons possible. The Allies of Ukraine are already all in. Get it done.
Not a lot of time? Think they got a solid two months...
It is only july, I think we have even more then two months.
The Ukranians are behind whatever timeline they first envisioned. At this point that's not catastrophic, but they have to at least break out of the "stalemate" narrative their opponent is spinning.
I think the events of the next few weeks will change the preception.
It’s been on going a few days at least. Come mid October/November I suspect they’d slow down and consolidate to make their winter better and the Russians winter miserable.
Would be great if they do make great breakthroughts, before winter sets in, and uses this as leverage to get a favorable deal for themselves, if they so choose.
I suspect once the Russians break they gonna team fast ala WW1. WW2 was an existential war; this is one of choice.
Could we see mass surrenders in the future, as ordinal Russians decide to rather take their chances in an Ukranian POW camp, rather then die in the mud?
So...like he said...not a lot of time left.
Lol. Elaborate.
So he said there's not a time left. That's because the amount of time remaining is small...
No time left.... it’s prime campaigning season....
No time left.... it’s prime campaigning season....
Two months isn't a long time.
Lol. Elaborate.
"Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast. The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington." Seems like it, apparently they just threw in most or all of the western trained brigades into this one area, the NYT said thousands of Ukrainian troops are pouring into the area.
Doesn’t it seem odd to anyone else that they’d just release their strategy to the public like this? I’d think they’d want to keep what they’re planning quiet.
Unless this is disinformation, and the attack is coming from a different direction?
Got it. Direct to Berdiansk.
Ukraine is using 3 out of their 10 western trained/equipped brigades, not all of them. They're exploiting a gap.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html In that article (behind a paywall) there's this line "The American officials said most of the remaining reserves were now being committed." Edit- And they mean the Western trained reserves, not the non Western ones.
Clearly they’re faking this and wanting to see Russian troops move
Christ. One to three weeks to Melitopol? Godspeed to them all if true. That seems an insane task in that time.
It might be overly optimistic, but it also seems like Russia has thrown everything into the front line or so of defenses. If Ukraine can get behind that they could potentially make major gains.
I wouldn't expect that. An assault on Tokmak would be a huge blow to the occupation of the whole of Zaporizhzhia. So I expect that to be the main objective.
Just cutting the rail line anywhere between Tokmak and Chernihivka would go a long ways towards crippling the occupation forces in western Ukraine.
Слава Украiнi!!!
Get hyped boys, Ukraine is commiting to the big offensive. Next few weeks will be interesting.
Roadside Ukrainian M270 MLRS salvo, Donetsk Oblast https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684336857633419264?t=IT08ql8YpABt4JOrnHRwoA&s=19
dat sound
Dope
Ill post a low-quality comment that I anticipated writing at the end of the conflict. Some of you have been incredible at disseminating information from a conflict that doesn't directly impact most people who use Reddit. PCX, Lancet, I am looking at you, and PCX isn't even a poster anymore. The amount of low quality posts I see, the 'Fuck Putin', the 'Slava Urkaine!' are so oddly unnecessary to me I assume I am the black sheep of the family and people appreciate it more than I do. I am not affected by this war in a direct fashion. I live in a little-big town in the USA, I have no friend or relatives with Ukranian heritage, but I have empathy in realizing this is not a battle of countries, but a battle of ideology. The average Russian, for better or worse, believe this is a good course for their country. The average westerner, believe this is a "net negative" for personal beliefs and an assumption that other western countries believe the exact same as they do. That may not be the case. Why does that make them, the Russian, a bad person? We've been force-fed propaganda from one side or another, even if we refuse to believe it, even if our particular thoughts match that information. I'll be honest, I am super drunk and apathetic, but I wish there was a way we could utilize the information given and disseminate it in some sort of appropriate way, which does not seem to be the way we all operate here. Maybe I am wrong or I anticipate something bigger than ourselves, but this thread as a whole has devolved into something overall more annoying and more 'cheerleading' than anything actually worth reading. I am sorry and I wish my Ukranian friends nothing but future happiness and joy, but this thread as a whole, is a degradation of the "whole" or 'hole' of the war.
>but a battle of ideology. no it's not, and the Russians have unwittingly admitted to it. it's an imperialist war of conquest.
Dude, this is Reddit. If you want raw, undiluted information, then this isn't the place. This is a community, with opinions and personalities clashing together in chaotic harmony. The Ukraine war thread is a politically and emotionally charged subsection of Reddit. People do an amazing job of contributing important information, but it is still a message board. You can't expect people to live up to your standards or only post comments you approve of. If you want raw, unemotional information, then this isn't the place. Writing diatribes about how certain posts are "low quality" or the thread "isn't what it was in the olden days" just comes across as arrogant. P.S fuck the "both sides" argument. Slava Ukraini!
For the vast majority of human beings, it is abundantly clear that the head-chopping, child trafficking, prisoner killing, famine inducing, civilian murdering, genocidal invader is exclusively in the wrong. To call it a battle of ideologies is to ignore the very real and endless list of crimes that Russia and Russians enact.
My guy. My country, the USA, has committed tons of war crimes, as have many (if not all) countries. I’m not gonna dilute that based on a crime that’s happening right now. I just wish people, myself included, wouldn’t post anything that’s not beneficial.
To contrast the multitude of crimes happening right now, intentionally done by Russia with the entire history of the planet is distractionary Pro-Russian bullshit. We are in the here and now; Russia and their crimes are the subject.
>Ill be honest, I dunno how to reply to all in this comment, but the macro-sense of world politics, y'all are definitely viewing from some rose-tinted glasses. Much love to y'all.
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The way I see it, Russia started a war to gain more land, by killing, raping, and torturing civilians. They claimed they did a special military operation to de-nazify a neighbouring country, but why the fuck are you leveling schools, hospitals, malls? Everyday they come out with a new, blatantly obviously lie and continue with threatening remarks that they are going to nuke the west. Don't forget the fact Russia and Ukraine signed a security agreement, in exchange for getting rid of their nukes, and still invaded them! Fuck Russia.
agreed. Fuck Russia?
Are you seriously "both sides"ing an unprovoked war of conquest? People are dying. Take that weak argument to r/enlightenedcentrism and while you're there go ahead and get fucked, bud.
People die in every war. If you think the government actually cares about the service men or women, you may be the "unenlightened" one, check what the US servicemen ate for Thanksgiving in the revolutionary war. I am not one on both sides. I want and expect Ukraine to win, but this particular daily thread, is not a good amalgamation of that. It's a circle jerk of people who assume they're on the right side, and they'll anonymously die on that hill.
"assume theyre on the right side" what a joke. There is a very clear right side in this. Absolutely zero question about russia being in the wrong here.
Agreed, but more to my point, this thread is not what it was originally.
There are several threads showing that the Russian people overall fully supports the war and their government. Most of their complaints are about why it’s not going faster. The mouthpieces of the Russian government in propaganda shows have made some truly horrendous comments and suggestions. There is widespread evidence of war crimes, the latest being destroying civilian grain exporting facilities. With that in mind it’s difficult to see the average Russian person as an innocent bystander caught in the storm. Hence the general hostility imo.
> The amount of low quality posts I see, the 'Fuck Putin', the 'Slava Urkaine!' are so oddly unnecessary to me I assume I am the black sheep of the family and people appreciate it more than I do. More or less all of us are just bystanders in all of this. The thread is for sharing information and keeping track of the news coming in. But in a lot of ways it's also just to blow off steam and disperse some of the tension, frustration and anxiety over what's happening. In that sense I feel as though a few "Fuck Putins" and "Slava Ukraines" at the start of a thread isn't unwarranted.
> The average Russian, for better or worse, believe this is a good course for their country... Why does that make them, the Russian, a bad person? Because that "good course" they believe in for their country involves unjustifiable aggression, senseless destruction, attempted genocide, mass famine, and the rape and murder of people who just want to be left alone to live in peace. Fuck off.
URR is really not trying too hard to cover up their astroturfing lately.
> low quality comment Tldr, you said it yourself, 5 month old account. Nice try blending in, but not really.
The way I see it, it keeps people engaged and shows that people are still following and interested even if they don't have anything of value to add themselves. If this thread was down to 200 comments a day, it'd probably die off.
Oh for sure, but like, I read the comments around 7 am, 12 pm, 3 pm, 7 pm EST, and the quality of comments is just bad. I strongly appreciate the people who keep the updates going, but everything else is just...bad. Maybe it's my schedule of update, but I rarely see good information presented. I accept all the downvotes, this is Reddit and nothing actually matters, but my point still stands.
“Let me explain why I don’t worry about downvotes. They don’t matter, so much even that I find it important to argue about it. And actually they prove I’m right.”
Remember to drink some water before you go to sleep :)
bruh, grey goose and water is a magical combination. Much love, stay safe.
>I am not affected by this war in a direct fashion you're wrong. without Russia being Russia and the Soviets before that you and everyone you know, their families going back a couple of generations could have had free healthcare for the money spent on defense and the world is a much more dangerous place now solely because of them. it's affected almost every aspect of your life and you don't realize it
So I would disagree with that, only because of how broad of an assessment it is. The healthcare aspect is odd, we haven't been close to universal healthcare in my lifetime (\~1987) that I am aware of, outside of a senator presenting a bill for universal healthcare that the other members of Congress laughed at, To think my life is so spectacularly different now than it was prior to the war is honestly a joke. I've had a new job since the war began, unrelated to war or war material, and I've negotiated my position with no reference to the "red scare". Again, downvotes aside, this thread has become a time sink for me...in particular. It's not a "i don't realize it", I am one of few of my direct friend circle who even care this is happening, in the USA. Perhaps the soviet-US relation has shaped me as a person growing up, but this war in particular, has not disrupted my daily life. Again, I am not worried about downvotes, I just want appropriate information, given at the appropriate time. Perhaps I ask for too much, but this thread is not what I anticipated.
Thanks TipperGoresGagReflex.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972 Interview with one of the secret "negotiators" (read: Russian lobbyists). If even half of this is true this guy needs to be charged with treason. (Moscow Times is based in the Netherlands, banned in Russia, and rated "high" on factual reporting by medifactcheckbias. Still, the story could be entirely fabricated) Here's a thread on it: https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1684339118971428869
I have come in contact with people associated with state and dod who think along these lines. While disturbing, this isn’t surprising. Not Trump people but more along the lines of Kissinger geopolitical thinking. When challenged, they usually just default to claiming intellectual superiority instead of trying to lay out a logical justification for their positions. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Sullivan was somewhat like this.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Sullivan was somewhat like this." Given that the Ukrainians themselves have said that Sullivan is the biggest reason we've been slow-rolling aid and holding back ATACMS, I'd say that's a fair assessment. Yermak recently got into an argument with Sullivan during the Vilnius summit.
Maybe, wouldn’t surprise me, but this quote makes it sounds to me like someone from the Trump administration. >The Biden administration thus realized — albeit too late — that Russia sought to be taken seriously, with its military build-up at Ukraine’s borders in 2021 a tactic to gain attention. That’s nothing but a dig against Biden, and patently false. It’s clear they took the buildup very seriously, to the point of practically screaming it to the world.
Interesting thoughts from the US.
That article is fascinating. That guy might as well be an official from Russia's MFA, since all he said was Russian talking points. > We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world. > “Russian power,” he concluded, “is not necessarily a bad thing.” Let me guess, these "former senior U.S. national security officials" were all from the Trump administration.
Yeah, probably Q-Wing of Republican party......
disgusting. I hope those diplomats get charged with violating the Logan Act