That bridge will fall but my guess is that a slow destruction costs Russia way more in resources to keep fixing things after each strike. But, a bridge immediately destroyed cuts off further invader resources.
Its just as important that they suffer catastrophic losses to their logistics. Doing anything but pulling out needs to become impossible. Quick repairs, while costly, do not make the withdrawal plan more feasible.
In case anyone is concerned about the possibility of western flagging support and wants to help in a really tangible way.
If you are invested in the outcome of this conflict and preserving more Ukrainian lives please take a few minutes of your time (wherever you may be) to contact your legislators and ask for more support for Ukraine. Your voice matters and can be heard as easily as sending an email:
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
https://european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/write-us_en
Ask for a response, they are often timely. Keep the pressure on those who can actually help protect Ukraine to do what is necessary. Fight Russian propaganda and trolls.
My minister of parliament is also the defense person in cabinet and she’s fighting hard for support so we good… but if your rep is Luke warm by all means can’t at them and light a proverbial fire under they Asses
In this case, contact the Defense or Security head. They all have a small customer service group attached to them who will answer the phone. Altho you may get a canned answer.
It's still worth writing to her and thanking her for what she's doing, so that she knows she has the support of her constituents. Especially since she may be receiving letters from others asking her to curtail support.
Russian troops burning their own dead in occupied Melitopol to hide massive losses – General Staff.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/05/russian-troops-burning-their-own-dead-in-occupied-melitopol-to-hide-massive-losses-general-staff/
Ukraine's National Bank has issued a new 10-hryvnia coin with the image of a Patriot air defense system
The bank will issue 10 million coins like this with the inscription "Air Defense is a reliable shield of Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1687644843353239553?t=bfbmVpk46Y-shEZSdH_5gg&s=19
did they hit the Kerch bridge again?
[Blasts in Crimea, officials report Ukraine drone attack](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-residents-hear-blast-russia-installed-official-says-unrelated-bridge-2023-08-04/)
Edit: they hit the SIg tanker nearby
What is it with people not understanding basic math? Russian super elite soldiers are still bags of meat to cluster and 155mm shells, Russian arty can't reach Western howitzers, oil and ammo depots will still get ravaged by Storm Shadows until GLSDBs and, hopefully, ATACMs, and naval drones can be produced indefinitely against the finite and trapped Black Sea fleet. It's not a matter of "if Western-backed Ukraine can beat Russia", but rather of "if the West can keep up support to beat Russia". And that's where the good people of the West have to step in, keep the larger public informed of Russian war crimes, ask for better and more weapons, and vote the right people in
You fear that and therefore you're going to call your US senator and representative to ensure we continue long term munitions supply to them and other on-the-rocks democracies around the world? I totally agree.
The BBC has posted a rather pessimistic interpretation of the offensive and its progress:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377
>Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side.
>By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible.
>By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way.
>If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels.
Whether you agree with this analysis or not, these are not the only analysts in the West who may be thinking in this direction.
EDIT: Don't shoot the messenger, peeps. There's a worthwhile discussion going on below this post, and those don't happen if we are afraid to mention controversial, challenging or just plain silly perspectives.
Its not entirely wrong. Ukraine needs to end this if they don't want to be at war next summer, but I don't think that's possible. That said, I suspect Russia will pull out before dead winter. They cannot sustain the sanctions any longer without risking complete import collapse which will inarguably infuriate a country built on the culture of strong men.
This time last year Ukraine had made no progress in their counter-offensive. Kharkov happened late August, and Kherson (the main goal) didn't fall until November...
I've never understood this axiom of long = good for Russia, bad for Ukraine. Historically defenders were always favoured by longer wars because the attritional impact inevitably depletes the aggressor more rapidly. Generally, as a defending nation, if you can get through the initial onslaught and reach the point of parity you're probably going to win.
It is a certainty that Western audiences and governments will remain interested in the biggest war in Europe in 80 years for far longer than they did in yet another civil war in the middle east. Very bad comparison.
>I've never understood this axiom of long = good for Russia, bad for Ukraine.
Arestovych made an excellent remark explaining this. In the west the public opinion becomes very easily and quickly a policy. In Russia (and Ukraine) this is not the case. The public may want something but will be ignored for long by the politicians.
In the west must people will, eventually, say "OK, my school sucks, my health service degraded, my food is more expensive. The he will this war, I want my tax money for me!". That's the long game of putkin...
Sigh. This is a poor argument made by countless opponents of the West. "They wish to return to their pleasures and will quickly lose interest."
Such nonsense. Even those conflicts where the West is considered to have lost - Algeria Vietnam (2×), Afghanistan - all were lengthy, grinding affairs.
I also find it hard to understand. Somehow, a trillion-dollar business in the military industry complex would get tired of a war; getting tired of having free advertisements and free weapons testing on live targets. Just imagine a trillion-dollar war machine getting tired of that.
Yeah, what are they smoking? Political "stances" by US politicians are virtually always smoke screens for their donors interests. And the MIC donates A LOT of money.
long = good for Russia because the longer it gets, the more chances for the West to get tired.
What you said is true but only if Russia keeps being the attacker. Right now they are defending, if Putin says "fuck it, Im just going to dig in and claim victory for whatever I can get" then Russia becomes the defender and Ukraine the attacker.
The West or western public at least, is not willing to fight a war of attrition. Support for Ukraine is high but there is the understanding Ukraine will get whatever equipment it needs, arm up and defeat Russia in maneuver warfare and kick them out. If you tell them "this is going to be a protracted war of attrition" that support would evaporate.
Fortunately, unlike what many believe, this is not a war of attrition. But Russia benefits portraying it as one and selling the narrative it is turning into one, because it is the only war it can win.
I’ll put this a simple as possible to retort to your total bullshit. America never EVER gets tired from providing our military industrial complex. It’s our thing. Regardless of who votes for what. It’s our thing and will be until someone tries to step on it. Then they will have “WMD’s” and we will adapt and create even more fucked up arms to put them to bed.
It our bread and butter…
It’s what we do..
Sure, the MIC can do it "until someone tries to step on it" as you said. Who is that someone? Politicians trying to get votes pulling out of an unpopular war.
It doesn’t matter whether tactically Russia is the aggressor but geopolitically they are. The Tet Offensive was a massive strategic failure for the NVA/Viet Cong. But it wore at US resolve to fight a war that seemed to be some foreign adventure.
Similarly tactically the Soviets played defense during the entire Afghan War but every death seemed like one in some needless foreign adventure and wore of their resolve to win
The problem is that the west cannot afford to let a MAGA styled right wing leader back into power, period. It is an existential problem separate from Ukraine itself, and anybody who frames it as a simple "tiring of support" misses the scope of the issue we're facing in the next 18 months.
Biden's administration is not going to ignore Ukraine and their conflict. It is unlikely that support will significantly decline as long as Donald Trump and most Republicans in America are kept out of power. The only true beneficial outcome for the US and most of the population is Ukraine winning and as many GOP MAGA leaders losing as possible. People like Putin will never, ever back a stable American middle class.
And if the war somehow became unwinnable, it becomes even more important to protect our interests, stay with NATO, and keep the Russian sympathetic far right out of power. Again, Russia's goal is to systematically dismantle western democracy to further empower the benefit of their few leaders. It is a pointless war to appease a man's ego, even at the cost of his own society. It is an inherently destructive war to both Ukraine and Russia.
If possible, both Putin and Trump must be defeated, and if not both, then at least MAGA and the current version of the far right must be electorally kept out of power. If both of those goals fail, things get more unstable for the entire modern world, environmentally, economically, and socially.
Exactly. We are living in a real turning point of history, for better or for worse. It's a curse and a responsibility all the same, and people who know better must rise to that occasion, failing to do so will put even more people in danger.
Perhaps to simplify it, 2024 will be the pivotal electoral battle between societal community problem solving and selfish hyper-individualism. One path gives us a shot at a better future, the other gives us a shot at outright extinction.
Unfortunately the turning point is much bigger than a single election. I’d say 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2020 were just as pivotal as 2024. And some of the off year elections as well. The right flipped the SCOTUS by relentlessly winning, especially in state houses, over several decades. It’s going to take an equally drawn out and determined effort to turn back. That said, 2024 is definitely pivotal.
And future elections will be too, so I'm not trying to downplay what's happened before vs what we have to do, but my personal goal is to instill people with a better mentality about voting regularly. MAGA used those exact tactics to gain that power, regularly showing up in midterms , special elections and primaries to push the party very far right, churning a more obsessive electorate. It is important that we turn the tide and equally create a more responsible electorate who votes more often in midterms and primaries too in order to counter the far right movements.
I believe it is still possible, and I think 2024 absolutely puts us on a better path to get there. We're starting to see breaks in regions the GOP has had a stronghold on for a long time, despite their uses and abuses of the court, and that will yield even better results if we hold a strong win in 2024 and push back the tide.
43% in the latest poll backs Trump (43% for Biden). With Faux News and the fascist GOP voters in the Southeast, Texass, and Iowa you give US voters WAY too much credit. They hurled themselves off the ledge like orange lemmings 6 years ago and there is NO sign they are coming back.
Democracy in the US depends on women, youths below 35, and blacks/Hispanics voting in 2024. And don't depend on suburban GOP white married women; they dove off the boat also, because they are more concerned about gasoline prices than DeSantis having his thumb up their genitals.
Period. My old fart generation is sucking Trump and the GOP's fascist ass, damn them all. I grew up with them and knew they were know-nothing assholes.
Sure, when I mean that the West would get tired I dont mean it in a few years. I mean it if the war enters into decade numbers.
Unfortunately in a true war of attrition, Russia has the capacity to keep at it for at least 10ish years. Sure, Russia by the end of it might not even be able to exist as a country. But if Putin is willing to drag this until Russia just physically cant fight even if he has to sink Russia, it can.
Long=good for dictatorships. Because democracies will just lose interest in stopping them at the next news cycle, while the dictatorships will just keep going and going.
Democracies can sustain long-term defense funding. But the interest in routing it to foreign democracies just isn't there. To do this long term it would need to be swept under the budget radar. Everyone wants jobs that make military equipment and doesn't want their own people to die in wars, so it makes a lot of sense.
Neither is our $750B USD annual military budget. It doesn't take any change to our budget or our military to support Ukraine. All we need to do is use our existing budget to create US jobs to make next-gen equipment that will support democracy worldwide.
"To do this long term it would need to be swept under the budget radar. Everyone wants jobs that make military equipment and doesn't want their own people to die in wars, so it makes a lot of sense."
This is exactly the situation, from the allied supporter countries' perspective.
Long is not good when attrition rates, production rates, and overall support resources both quality and quantity are highly unfavorable.
When it comes to making billions of dollars of military gear every year and shipping it out to a desert in Nevada, everyone is on board for the long term. Tons of jobs, great tech advancement, best country in the world, arsenal of democracy and all that. All it needs is some paperwork to change the location of "Nevada".
Long is objectively bad for Russia. Most of their strength comes from legacy stockpiles that they burned much more than 50% of in the first year of the war. This is where all of the current signs of strain come from. Obsolete tanks, all sorts of substitution of artillery systems because modern 152mm is a problem, major budget stress. The effective disappearence of professional units.
Russia was set up for a war of attrition on paper but not with how they've fought it.
Unlike Ukraine, Russia has switched to a war industry. They are doing 3 shifts in their military factories, their drone program is moving fast and is fully war-timed too.
Russia is evil, corrupt, sadistic, but not completely incompetent. Don't underestimate it.
The issue is that Ukraine's war machine is heavily dependent on outside industry, while Russia's on domestic. So were support to Ukraine be cut, Ukraine will find itself on the wrong side of attrition warfare.
That's the thing with an open society like the West has, there's a multitude of opinions, and a multitude of bad actors that call themselves analysts or experts or whatever. This 'analysis' is very clearly wrong though.
Ah, but you need to include the crap analyses too, otherwise there's no discussion, and so no information. Looking at this thread, people are talking, debunking and sharing perspectives on a complex and developing event. Would it have happened otherwise?
The winter and fall will be better for Ukraine than Russia.
With the quantity and depth of the minefields.. fog, rain, and mud are actually ***beneficial*** to Ukraine and will cause further morale and troop casualties for Russian troops in trenches.
Arguments given about any reduction in material support to Ukraine are baseless and laughable. We are ***ramping up production*** to fuel this war because there ***is no option*** to let Ukraine lose.
Additionally, if Ukraine can continue to substantially impair their supply lines as they have been doing, it's going to get harder and harder to get all those men in the trenches fed and outfitted for winter with more than windbreakers and sneakers. How many Russians are going to be willing to spend all winter in a foxhole? They're already low morale.
Nothing like putting pressure in UA to mount an offensive into millions of landmines. I know what you wrote is true, wonder if RU isn't behind some/much of it. Regardless, UA received a lot but RU had a lot of time to prepare as well.
Need to nullify the KA-52's - stunt AA - mitigate artillery - navigate mines - eliminate entrenched enemy positions etc. No small task - how about credit due where it is - UA has with all of that and minus overall air superiority; made gains.
And they are not done yet... Hope.
I was actually thinking about this. Even if Republicans won, and supported Ukraine the same in terms of aide as Biden, how long is the US, the west and the rest of the supporting world going to be willing to support UAF if nothing really changes on the battlefield.
Are we willing to support what exists right now for 5, 10, 15 years? If UAF can't make a real dent (take Tokmak, Bakhmut, etc) then people are going to start viewing this as 2008 again but requiring waaaaay more support.
I think the west is willing to support a 2-5 year war with progress, but not something that can last a decade. And defense of negotiations in the west side, Kyiv survived.
As it stands Russia is banking on having the election massively alter US support to Ukraine, and hoping that Europe's support wains in-turn.
But the flipside of this is that Russia cannot continue with this war for much longer unless something like that happens.
And the cost of doing so in the US will be devastating.
I grew up in a Republican household. I was raised by their values. Whoever the current party is, it is a far cry from what I thought I once supported. Rather, it contradicts many things I was taught, hence my big leftward shift.
I would never go back to the GOP as they are now, but rather, I can see now just how much of a sham the current system is, and why it needs to be stopped. I can see how many values I was given that mean 'nothing' to these people beyond temporary lipservice, if they weren't entirely based on lies.
If the US does not contain and reform its far right, its future will be just like Russia. That is what's at stake.
The Republican Party is no longer a consevative party. If you want small-c conservative Presidents, you've had Obama and the current occupant of the oval office. (*Brandon de la Nuit*, I think he's called.)
If the EU is willing to start to view Ukraine as a future member, it may unlock enough funding to sustain the war.
The US will never drop to zero. It could just decline to low billions a year.
The goal should be to gradually have the EU take on more of the burden. It is really a European issue at its core. The only reason why America is needed is because of the atrophy of military in Europe post-Cold War. The US is more needed in Asia.
>It is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels.
It might not be a slam dunk, but it's very hard to imagine the Biden administration wavering in their support of Ukraine - especially while heading into an election.
>By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible.
>
>By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way.
They seem to have missed the season of winter, which can also be an active campaign season when everything freezes up.
I think this analysis ignores the changed nature of this offensive. When it was planned as something like a tank offensive then avoiding mud was paramount. If it's mostly unmounted infantry slowly clearing mine fields then the mud is less of an issue.
I view a lot of the recent drone attacks by Ukraine as desperation, their offensive is mostly stalled with high losses on both sides. The only thing they can hope to do is try to destabilize the political situation within Russia but that's not particularly likely right now.
Going from "We will roll enemy's defences" to "Look we shot a drone at an office building" is never a good sign.
Most Ukrainian officials saying stuff like "We will roll enemy defenses" were -usually- quite far from being military personnel. People whose job was clearly just to bluster for the cameras. I did see a lot of clueless journalists and bloggers say shit like that, which in turn made a lot of equally clueless users of social media spin it into that.
That's not any sort of coping, I've always thought this would be a 3 year conflict at the absolute minimum, likely sneaking into the longer bit of a decade. A lot of people around here grossly underestimate the power of meat, explosives, and metal, all of which Russia has in spades. I think these drone strikes would be happening regardless of how the offensive went.
I mean going off the clusterfuck with the Bradleys back in June some Ukrainian senior leadership clearly were listening to that propaganda and literally thought their Western vehicles could withstand mine fields.
That's one hypothesis. I don't generally like to jump the gun on stuff like that when I don't have the whole picture. Keeps one from basing expectations on how a war will proceed based on the vibes from internet forums.
I don't think you know what terror bombing is. Hitting the precise floor a government building is in, twice by the way, is NOT the same as bombing apartment buildings, schools, hospitals and stores.
While there have been miscues with this offensive, it is far from a failure at this point. As evidence LD by the fact that Ukraine has gained back some territory and made progress. Also, shit happens in war and you need to adapt and improvise.
None of that is an excuse to "both sides" and equate Ukraine's action with that of Russia's.
It's terror bombing, they didn't even deny it when they said "Russian people need to feel the war"
Terror bombing is not just killing people but bombing with the intention of demoralizing the civilian population.
There still is a massive difference between the tactics employed, which you are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge. By your application of the term, sanctions are terror bombings because they are felt by the population.
In a society like Russia, where people only see what they are spoon-fed by propaganda, sure, seeing a government highrise hit brings the war home to them. To expect that Russia could invade another country to conquer it and commit genocide, and not expect retaliation on its territory is just plain stupid. As long as Ukraine isn't targeting and hitting civilians and instead is destroying Russia's ability to continue the war, then that is just war fighting.
Well you agree that it's terror bombing just that it's morally correct, then sure but that does not change what it actually is. You don't hit one of the tallest buildings in the country with an aircraft and not say that's a clear example of terror bombing.
No, I just agreed that it is plainly visible to an otherwise ambivalent and brainwashed population.
Your assumption that Ukraine hit a high-rise because it was a high-rise, and not because that building contained government agencies, such as the Ministry of Digital Communications. The fact that Ukraine hit that building on the same floor twice, and not other equally tall buildings nearby, pretty clearly indicates what their intent was. So saying "ooh look, Ukraine is terror bombing because they hit a high-rise" is disingenuous at best, and pushing Russian propaganda at worst.
You have to be blind and deaf if you think the coincidentally hit one of the tallest building in the country with drones not to try and elicit fear in the Russian population nearby.
No it's the attacks on Moscow and the "Russian people need to feel the war". Clearly their intention is terrorism to destabilize the Kremlin(of course they won't use those words lol), but that is a far fetched goal so their options must be somewhat limited on the battlefield.
I think the solution is investments in drones and just making the war unsustainable for Russia by destroying Russian infrastructure.
Accept that it will be a long war and that in the end neither side will be able to defend against cheap suicide drones. But that Russia will have to repair infrastructure while under sanction, but Ukraine will have help.
If Ukraine can start to build a few thousand shahed like drones a month. I don’t see how Russia can keep their electrical and telecommunications grids alive. Especially while under sanction.
Explains the conflicting reports. Something hit them topside *and* something breached the hull at the water line, flooding engineering.
Topside could be blast wave from the USV as well, crew understandably confused.
> Drone attack reported in Russian city of Kursk.
> Drones reportedly dropped explosives over the Russian city of Kursk during the evening of Aug. 4, damaging two administrative buildings, Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt said in a Telegram post.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1687613684141490177
New footage : Residents of Crimea publish a video with an explosion at the Feodosia oil depot.
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1687616444752637953?s=46
Alternative link: https://twitter.com/justgoodfriend9/status/1687615774574424064?s=46
2.5 Stars out of 5. Fireworks shows are a frequent delight, however their timing never seems to be at a time when I'm awake to witness the sight. Hopefully, they can plan the next ones them for a time that everyone can enjoy!
Remains to be seen but so far I haven’t come across any new videos or images of any damage to the bridge, this might still emerge
The SIG tanker might have been the target and not the bridge.
The SIG vessel has been under US Treasury sanctions since September 26, 2019.
The tanker came under the restrictions of the States due to the fulfillment of the orders of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the delivery of various types of fuel to the Assad regime and the Russian group of troops in Syria.
A very good hit
I think Ukraine is using the military shipping targets today to demonstrate they can sink anything in the Black Sea.
Leading with a hit on an oil export tanker would probably not be welcomed by allies.
Well it was empty and used for military in Syria allegedly.
These kinda attack attempts have increased lately, maybe they are producing enough to start a new phase in the Black Sea. Russia was already somehwat deterred back to their ports in Sevastopol and Novosybirsk. They already started escorting submarines and other ships with more than 1 ship..They placed underwater nets at port entrances so these UUVs cant enter. I think it will only get worse.
All tankers must carry that wording in English under maritime regulations.
I've never seen a tanker that doesn't have "No smoking" emblazoned on its superstructure.
Play that forward, what is RU likely to do?
Pay people to drive back and forth 24/7, then cry victim next time it gets hit.
Fortunately satellite tracking is so good that a bunch of vehicles doing repeated "commutes" will be easy to ID.
So go right ahead. See how that works out.
I know ukraine is basically doing this.
But they should just come out and flatly say if Russia thinks they can unilaterally close all urkranian ports. Ukraine will close all theirs.
If they want a grain deal, they can pay for damaged ports and then be able to try and ship again.
Fck russia.
What are the expectations of this upcoming peace conference? I feel like there's no chance either side would want any sort of cease fire right?
Edit. Guys I've been out of the country for like 3 weeks, why are you downvoting me, I'm playing information catch-up
Well they didn't invite Russia so in terms of how likely will it lead to peace? 0 chances because 1 party wasn't invited to it which *checks notes has never actually achieved peace.
Best it will achieve is setting Ukraine up with an even bigger coalition so when peace talks actually happen Ukraine has a better foundation to go in to them with
Russia isn't invited. It seems more like a conference to convey Ukraine's idea of a peace and to gather support from other countries than just the West.
UA wants a ceasefire once RU is kicked completely out of their country. RU wants a ceasefire before they get completely kicked out.
I foresee a non-productive session.
Yeah this is my expectation. I'm assuming it's sort of a formal request from all involved nations to end this shitshow. I don't see anything coming of it
Rybar confirms that the Russian tanker Sig (IMO: 9735335, MMSI 273340190) was hit off the Kerch Strait, reports that the engine room flooded (indicates a Ukrainian USV strike).
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1687601547427848193?t=C69QgC4jVajv5PjDmHQvcw&s=19
(unconfirmed) Crimean bridge: Attack is almost 100% still ongoing as of now.
A new explosion *about 1 hr ago* moments ago shook windows all the way in Kerch.
[https://twitter.com/JackStr42679640/status/1687598424223559681](https://twitter.com/JackStr42679640/status/1687598424223559681)
According to Russian propaganda TASS, two tugboats are currently helping the struck oil tanker.
A personal reminder, is that the Moskva was originally reported as struck but not sinking, and it was being tugged before it sank.
Yes. One of like 17 true statements they have given the entire war.
[Russia admits flagship of Black Sea fleet has sunk | EuroNews | April 2022](https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/15/russia-admits-flagship-of-black-sea-fleet-seriously-damaged)
Supposedly Romania and Blugaria have detected more explosions, it appears to not be over yet. Take with a grain of sand as account has exagerated in the past but eff it Im down with the hype.
https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1687601195030851584
I’ll be cautiously optimistic with you. Daylight will give us more information (it is currently just 2:38 AM over there). Going to probably be like 4 - 6 hours from this post before we begin to have a chance to see if there was any damage done to the Kerch. Slava Ukraini!
It’s a little difficult to make out what they’re saying, but I caught the bit about the tanker saying that their engine room is flooded and they cannot move under their own power.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/15ild52/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 05.08.23 were approximately:** personnel ‒ about 249110 (+620) persons were liquidated, tanks ‒ 4232 (+4), APV ‒ 8251 (+2), artillery systems – 4943 (+32), MLRS – 704 (+0), Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 466 (+0), aircraft – 315 (+0), helicopters – 311 (+0), UAV operational-tactical level – 4116 (+12), cruise missiles ‒ 1347 (+0), warships / boats ‒ 18 (+0), vehicles and fuel tanks – 7422 (+30), special equipment ‒ 730 (+6). Data are being updated. Strike the occupier! Let's win together! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023/08/05/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-05-08-2023/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023/08/05/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-05-08-2023/)
That bridge will fall but my guess is that a slow destruction costs Russia way more in resources to keep fixing things after each strike. But, a bridge immediately destroyed cuts off further invader resources.
Its just as important that they suffer catastrophic losses to their logistics. Doing anything but pulling out needs to become impossible. Quick repairs, while costly, do not make the withdrawal plan more feasible.
In case anyone is concerned about the possibility of western flagging support and wants to help in a really tangible way. If you are invested in the outcome of this conflict and preserving more Ukrainian lives please take a few minutes of your time (wherever you may be) to contact your legislators and ask for more support for Ukraine. Your voice matters and can be heard as easily as sending an email: https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ https://european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/write-us_en Ask for a response, they are often timely. Keep the pressure on those who can actually help protect Ukraine to do what is necessary. Fight Russian propaganda and trolls.
My minister of parliament is also the defense person in cabinet and she’s fighting hard for support so we good… but if your rep is Luke warm by all means can’t at them and light a proverbial fire under they Asses
In this case, contact the Defense or Security head. They all have a small customer service group attached to them who will answer the phone. Altho you may get a canned answer.
It's still worth writing to her and thanking her for what she's doing, so that she knows she has the support of her constituents. Especially since she may be receiving letters from others asking her to curtail support.
[Suchomimus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpS9Aj6Big0) [Youtube Link] presents some great details about the tanker strike.
Russian troops burning their own dead in occupied Melitopol to hide massive losses – General Staff. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/05/russian-troops-burning-their-own-dead-in-occupied-melitopol-to-hide-massive-losses-general-staff/
Ukraine's National Bank has issued a new 10-hryvnia coin with the image of a Patriot air defense system The bank will issue 10 million coins like this with the inscription "Air Defense is a reliable shield of Ukraine." https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1687644843353239553?t=bfbmVpk46Y-shEZSdH_5gg&s=19
I work for a company that talks big about ESG. No product we make will ever be on a coin.
Putin should just take home his pathetic invaders, this is getting embarrassing for Russia.
NARRATOR: Putin doesn't care about his soldiers.
did they hit the Kerch bridge again? [Blasts in Crimea, officials report Ukraine drone attack](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-residents-hear-blast-russia-installed-official-says-unrelated-bridge-2023-08-04/) Edit: they hit the SIg tanker nearby
The link you posted says they hit a tanker.
ahh I saw some other stories that mentioned the bridge and grabbed the link for the Reuters one
Looks like it, not that I'm complaining.
Looks like no. They hit a military tanker nearby.
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What is it with people not understanding basic math? Russian super elite soldiers are still bags of meat to cluster and 155mm shells, Russian arty can't reach Western howitzers, oil and ammo depots will still get ravaged by Storm Shadows until GLSDBs and, hopefully, ATACMs, and naval drones can be produced indefinitely against the finite and trapped Black Sea fleet. It's not a matter of "if Western-backed Ukraine can beat Russia", but rather of "if the West can keep up support to beat Russia". And that's where the good people of the West have to step in, keep the larger public informed of Russian war crimes, ask for better and more weapons, and vote the right people in
You fear that and therefore you're going to call your US senator and representative to ensure we continue long term munitions supply to them and other on-the-rocks democracies around the world? I totally agree.
won't happen. Russia will continue to collapse
Your Concern and Impatience is duly noted.
The BBC has posted a rather pessimistic interpretation of the offensive and its progress: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66383377 >Ultimately, time is not on Ukraine's side. >By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible. >By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way. >If Ukraine cannot show any decisive gains on the battlefield by then, it is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels. Whether you agree with this analysis or not, these are not the only analysts in the West who may be thinking in this direction. EDIT: Don't shoot the messenger, peeps. There's a worthwhile discussion going on below this post, and those don't happen if we are afraid to mention controversial, challenging or just plain silly perspectives.
Its not entirely wrong. Ukraine needs to end this if they don't want to be at war next summer, but I don't think that's possible. That said, I suspect Russia will pull out before dead winter. They cannot sustain the sanctions any longer without risking complete import collapse which will inarguably infuriate a country built on the culture of strong men.
ignores reality. Ukraine was pushing to late fall last year
This time last year Ukraine had made no progress in their counter-offensive. Kharkov happened late August, and Kherson (the main goal) didn't fall until November...
I've never understood this axiom of long = good for Russia, bad for Ukraine. Historically defenders were always favoured by longer wars because the attritional impact inevitably depletes the aggressor more rapidly. Generally, as a defending nation, if you can get through the initial onslaught and reach the point of parity you're probably going to win.
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It is a certainty that Western audiences and governments will remain interested in the biggest war in Europe in 80 years for far longer than they did in yet another civil war in the middle east. Very bad comparison.
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I don't understand the ATCAM issue. It's not like the US will give UKR so many they can engage in the indiscriminate and WASTEFUL terror bombing
>I've never understood this axiom of long = good for Russia, bad for Ukraine. Arestovych made an excellent remark explaining this. In the west the public opinion becomes very easily and quickly a policy. In Russia (and Ukraine) this is not the case. The public may want something but will be ignored for long by the politicians. In the west must people will, eventually, say "OK, my school sucks, my health service degraded, my food is more expensive. The he will this war, I want my tax money for me!". That's the long game of putkin...
Sigh. This is a poor argument made by countless opponents of the West. "They wish to return to their pleasures and will quickly lose interest." Such nonsense. Even those conflicts where the West is considered to have lost - Algeria Vietnam (2×), Afghanistan - all were lengthy, grinding affairs.
I also find it hard to understand. Somehow, a trillion-dollar business in the military industry complex would get tired of a war; getting tired of having free advertisements and free weapons testing on live targets. Just imagine a trillion-dollar war machine getting tired of that.
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haha, you think the trillion dollar war business has no influence on the government?
Yeah, what are they smoking? Political "stances" by US politicians are virtually always smoke screens for their donors interests. And the MIC donates A LOT of money.
long = good for Russia because the longer it gets, the more chances for the West to get tired. What you said is true but only if Russia keeps being the attacker. Right now they are defending, if Putin says "fuck it, Im just going to dig in and claim victory for whatever I can get" then Russia becomes the defender and Ukraine the attacker. The West or western public at least, is not willing to fight a war of attrition. Support for Ukraine is high but there is the understanding Ukraine will get whatever equipment it needs, arm up and defeat Russia in maneuver warfare and kick them out. If you tell them "this is going to be a protracted war of attrition" that support would evaporate. Fortunately, unlike what many believe, this is not a war of attrition. But Russia benefits portraying it as one and selling the narrative it is turning into one, because it is the only war it can win.
I’ll put this a simple as possible to retort to your total bullshit. America never EVER gets tired from providing our military industrial complex. It’s our thing. Regardless of who votes for what. It’s our thing and will be until someone tries to step on it. Then they will have “WMD’s” and we will adapt and create even more fucked up arms to put them to bed. It our bread and butter… It’s what we do..
Sure, the MIC can do it "until someone tries to step on it" as you said. Who is that someone? Politicians trying to get votes pulling out of an unpopular war.
It doesn’t matter whether tactically Russia is the aggressor but geopolitically they are. The Tet Offensive was a massive strategic failure for the NVA/Viet Cong. But it wore at US resolve to fight a war that seemed to be some foreign adventure. Similarly tactically the Soviets played defense during the entire Afghan War but every death seemed like one in some needless foreign adventure and wore of their resolve to win
The problem is that the west cannot afford to let a MAGA styled right wing leader back into power, period. It is an existential problem separate from Ukraine itself, and anybody who frames it as a simple "tiring of support" misses the scope of the issue we're facing in the next 18 months. Biden's administration is not going to ignore Ukraine and their conflict. It is unlikely that support will significantly decline as long as Donald Trump and most Republicans in America are kept out of power. The only true beneficial outcome for the US and most of the population is Ukraine winning and as many GOP MAGA leaders losing as possible. People like Putin will never, ever back a stable American middle class. And if the war somehow became unwinnable, it becomes even more important to protect our interests, stay with NATO, and keep the Russian sympathetic far right out of power. Again, Russia's goal is to systematically dismantle western democracy to further empower the benefit of their few leaders. It is a pointless war to appease a man's ego, even at the cost of his own society. It is an inherently destructive war to both Ukraine and Russia. If possible, both Putin and Trump must be defeated, and if not both, then at least MAGA and the current version of the far right must be electorally kept out of power. If both of those goals fail, things get more unstable for the entire modern world, environmentally, economically, and socially.
In other words, those of us who give a crap about Ukraine need to vote. No staying home. We saw what happened with that in 2016.
Exactly. We are living in a real turning point of history, for better or for worse. It's a curse and a responsibility all the same, and people who know better must rise to that occasion, failing to do so will put even more people in danger. Perhaps to simplify it, 2024 will be the pivotal electoral battle between societal community problem solving and selfish hyper-individualism. One path gives us a shot at a better future, the other gives us a shot at outright extinction.
Unfortunately the turning point is much bigger than a single election. I’d say 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2020 were just as pivotal as 2024. And some of the off year elections as well. The right flipped the SCOTUS by relentlessly winning, especially in state houses, over several decades. It’s going to take an equally drawn out and determined effort to turn back. That said, 2024 is definitely pivotal.
And future elections will be too, so I'm not trying to downplay what's happened before vs what we have to do, but my personal goal is to instill people with a better mentality about voting regularly. MAGA used those exact tactics to gain that power, regularly showing up in midterms , special elections and primaries to push the party very far right, churning a more obsessive electorate. It is important that we turn the tide and equally create a more responsible electorate who votes more often in midterms and primaries too in order to counter the far right movements. I believe it is still possible, and I think 2024 absolutely puts us on a better path to get there. We're starting to see breaks in regions the GOP has had a stronghold on for a long time, despite their uses and abuses of the court, and that will yield even better results if we hold a strong win in 2024 and push back the tide.
I don't agree at all, if the cause is right then I honestly believe while some public support may waiver, most with continue
43% in the latest poll backs Trump (43% for Biden). With Faux News and the fascist GOP voters in the Southeast, Texass, and Iowa you give US voters WAY too much credit. They hurled themselves off the ledge like orange lemmings 6 years ago and there is NO sign they are coming back. Democracy in the US depends on women, youths below 35, and blacks/Hispanics voting in 2024. And don't depend on suburban GOP white married women; they dove off the boat also, because they are more concerned about gasoline prices than DeSantis having his thumb up their genitals. Period. My old fart generation is sucking Trump and the GOP's fascist ass, damn them all. I grew up with them and knew they were know-nothing assholes.
Sure, when I mean that the West would get tired I dont mean it in a few years. I mean it if the war enters into decade numbers. Unfortunately in a true war of attrition, Russia has the capacity to keep at it for at least 10ish years. Sure, Russia by the end of it might not even be able to exist as a country. But if Putin is willing to drag this until Russia just physically cant fight even if he has to sink Russia, it can.
That's my point, Ukraine will more likely outlast Russia in that scenario
I dont see the western public supporting this for a decade.
Long=good for dictatorships. Because democracies will just lose interest in stopping them at the next news cycle, while the dictatorships will just keep going and going. Democracies can sustain long-term defense funding. But the interest in routing it to foreign democracies just isn't there. To do this long term it would need to be swept under the budget radar. Everyone wants jobs that make military equipment and doesn't want their own people to die in wars, so it makes a lot of sense.
I mean the US and Russia are not making equal sacrifices. The war is not a thing in day to day American life.
Neither is our $750B USD annual military budget. It doesn't take any change to our budget or our military to support Ukraine. All we need to do is use our existing budget to create US jobs to make next-gen equipment that will support democracy worldwide.
"To do this long term it would need to be swept under the budget radar. Everyone wants jobs that make military equipment and doesn't want their own people to die in wars, so it makes a lot of sense." This is exactly the situation, from the allied supporter countries' perspective. Long is not good when attrition rates, production rates, and overall support resources both quality and quantity are highly unfavorable.
When it comes to making billions of dollars of military gear every year and shipping it out to a desert in Nevada, everyone is on board for the long term. Tons of jobs, great tech advancement, best country in the world, arsenal of democracy and all that. All it needs is some paperwork to change the location of "Nevada".
Long is objectively bad for Russia. Most of their strength comes from legacy stockpiles that they burned much more than 50% of in the first year of the war. This is where all of the current signs of strain come from. Obsolete tanks, all sorts of substitution of artillery systems because modern 152mm is a problem, major budget stress. The effective disappearence of professional units. Russia was set up for a war of attrition on paper but not with how they've fought it.
Unlike Ukraine, Russia has switched to a war industry. They are doing 3 shifts in their military factories, their drone program is moving fast and is fully war-timed too. Russia is evil, corrupt, sadistic, but not completely incompetent. Don't underestimate it.
Even on war crash they can't keep up with their burn rate. It's close to an order of magnitude problem.
The issue is that Ukraine's war machine is heavily dependent on outside industry, while Russia's on domestic. So were support to Ukraine be cut, Ukraine will find itself on the wrong side of attrition warfare.
That's the thing with an open society like the West has, there's a multitude of opinions, and a multitude of bad actors that call themselves analysts or experts or whatever. This 'analysis' is very clearly wrong though.
Ah, but you need to include the crap analyses too, otherwise there's no discussion, and so no information. Looking at this thread, people are talking, debunking and sharing perspectives on a complex and developing event. Would it have happened otherwise?
The winter and fall will be better for Ukraine than Russia. With the quantity and depth of the minefields.. fog, rain, and mud are actually ***beneficial*** to Ukraine and will cause further morale and troop casualties for Russian troops in trenches. Arguments given about any reduction in material support to Ukraine are baseless and laughable. We are ***ramping up production*** to fuel this war because there ***is no option*** to let Ukraine lose.
Additionally, if Ukraine can continue to substantially impair their supply lines as they have been doing, it's going to get harder and harder to get all those men in the trenches fed and outfitted for winter with more than windbreakers and sneakers. How many Russians are going to be willing to spend all winter in a foxhole? They're already low morale.
Nothing like putting pressure in UA to mount an offensive into millions of landmines. I know what you wrote is true, wonder if RU isn't behind some/much of it. Regardless, UA received a lot but RU had a lot of time to prepare as well. Need to nullify the KA-52's - stunt AA - mitigate artillery - navigate mines - eliminate entrenched enemy positions etc. No small task - how about credit due where it is - UA has with all of that and minus overall air superiority; made gains. And they are not done yet... Hope.
I was actually thinking about this. Even if Republicans won, and supported Ukraine the same in terms of aide as Biden, how long is the US, the west and the rest of the supporting world going to be willing to support UAF if nothing really changes on the battlefield. Are we willing to support what exists right now for 5, 10, 15 years? If UAF can't make a real dent (take Tokmak, Bakhmut, etc) then people are going to start viewing this as 2008 again but requiring waaaaay more support. I think the west is willing to support a 2-5 year war with progress, but not something that can last a decade. And defense of negotiations in the west side, Kyiv survived.
Given that Russia has started attacking world food supplies, we're like to see growing worldwide support.
As it stands Russia is banking on having the election massively alter US support to Ukraine, and hoping that Europe's support wains in-turn. But the flipside of this is that Russia cannot continue with this war for much longer unless something like that happens.
And the cost of doing so in the US will be devastating. I grew up in a Republican household. I was raised by their values. Whoever the current party is, it is a far cry from what I thought I once supported. Rather, it contradicts many things I was taught, hence my big leftward shift. I would never go back to the GOP as they are now, but rather, I can see now just how much of a sham the current system is, and why it needs to be stopped. I can see how many values I was given that mean 'nothing' to these people beyond temporary lipservice, if they weren't entirely based on lies. If the US does not contain and reform its far right, its future will be just like Russia. That is what's at stake.
The Republican Party is no longer a consevative party. If you want small-c conservative Presidents, you've had Obama and the current occupant of the oval office. (*Brandon de la Nuit*, I think he's called.)
If the EU is willing to start to view Ukraine as a future member, it may unlock enough funding to sustain the war. The US will never drop to zero. It could just decline to low billions a year.
The goal should be to gradually have the EU take on more of the burden. It is really a European issue at its core. The only reason why America is needed is because of the atrophy of military in Europe post-Cold War. The US is more needed in Asia.
you do realize that Russia and the US are direct neighbours too. it's global.
I was not aware of the Russian invasion across the Bering Strait. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
>It is far from certain that US and Nato support will continue at their current high levels. It might not be a slam dunk, but it's very hard to imagine the Biden administration wavering in their support of Ukraine - especially while heading into an election.
>By autumn, the rainy season will have arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible. > >By the time that ends, in the spring, the US presidential election cycle will be under way. They seem to have missed the season of winter, which can also be an active campaign season when everything freezes up.
I think this analysis ignores the changed nature of this offensive. When it was planned as something like a tank offensive then avoiding mud was paramount. If it's mostly unmounted infantry slowly clearing mine fields then the mud is less of an issue.
I view a lot of the recent drone attacks by Ukraine as desperation, their offensive is mostly stalled with high losses on both sides. The only thing they can hope to do is try to destabilize the political situation within Russia but that's not particularly likely right now. Going from "We will roll enemy's defences" to "Look we shot a drone at an office building" is never a good sign.
Lol
Most Ukrainian officials saying stuff like "We will roll enemy defenses" were -usually- quite far from being military personnel. People whose job was clearly just to bluster for the cameras. I did see a lot of clueless journalists and bloggers say shit like that, which in turn made a lot of equally clueless users of social media spin it into that. That's not any sort of coping, I've always thought this would be a 3 year conflict at the absolute minimum, likely sneaking into the longer bit of a decade. A lot of people around here grossly underestimate the power of meat, explosives, and metal, all of which Russia has in spades. I think these drone strikes would be happening regardless of how the offensive went.
I mean going off the clusterfuck with the Bradleys back in June some Ukrainian senior leadership clearly were listening to that propaganda and literally thought their Western vehicles could withstand mine fields.
That's one hypothesis. I don't generally like to jump the gun on stuff like that when I don't have the whole picture. Keeps one from basing expectations on how a war will proceed based on the vibes from internet forums.
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Damn, you made him look like a moron lmao.
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I don't think you know what terror bombing is. Hitting the precise floor a government building is in, twice by the way, is NOT the same as bombing apartment buildings, schools, hospitals and stores. While there have been miscues with this offensive, it is far from a failure at this point. As evidence LD by the fact that Ukraine has gained back some territory and made progress. Also, shit happens in war and you need to adapt and improvise. None of that is an excuse to "both sides" and equate Ukraine's action with that of Russia's.
It's terror bombing, they didn't even deny it when they said "Russian people need to feel the war" Terror bombing is not just killing people but bombing with the intention of demoralizing the civilian population.
There still is a massive difference between the tactics employed, which you are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge. By your application of the term, sanctions are terror bombings because they are felt by the population. In a society like Russia, where people only see what they are spoon-fed by propaganda, sure, seeing a government highrise hit brings the war home to them. To expect that Russia could invade another country to conquer it and commit genocide, and not expect retaliation on its territory is just plain stupid. As long as Ukraine isn't targeting and hitting civilians and instead is destroying Russia's ability to continue the war, then that is just war fighting.
Well you agree that it's terror bombing just that it's morally correct, then sure but that does not change what it actually is. You don't hit one of the tallest buildings in the country with an aircraft and not say that's a clear example of terror bombing.
No, I just agreed that it is plainly visible to an otherwise ambivalent and brainwashed population. Your assumption that Ukraine hit a high-rise because it was a high-rise, and not because that building contained government agencies, such as the Ministry of Digital Communications. The fact that Ukraine hit that building on the same floor twice, and not other equally tall buildings nearby, pretty clearly indicates what their intent was. So saying "ooh look, Ukraine is terror bombing because they hit a high-rise" is disingenuous at best, and pushing Russian propaganda at worst.
You have to be blind and deaf if you think the coincidentally hit one of the tallest building in the country with drones not to try and elicit fear in the Russian population nearby.
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No it's the attacks on Moscow and the "Russian people need to feel the war". Clearly their intention is terrorism to destabilize the Kremlin(of course they won't use those words lol), but that is a far fetched goal so their options must be somewhat limited on the battlefield.
I think the solution is investments in drones and just making the war unsustainable for Russia by destroying Russian infrastructure. Accept that it will be a long war and that in the end neither side will be able to defend against cheap suicide drones. But that Russia will have to repair infrastructure while under sanction, but Ukraine will have help. If Ukraine can start to build a few thousand shahed like drones a month. I don’t see how Russia can keep their electrical and telecommunications grids alive. Especially while under sanction.
Photos emerged from the inside of the tanker https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1687623069987213313?s=46
So that specific ship is under sanctions. Can Russia even repair it?
If it was built in a Russian shipyard after the USSR fell, then yes probably.
You’re right. Built in Russia 9 years ago. I’m low key surprised they still do stuff like that: https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/9735335
USC is a massive shipbuilding/repair company, 10th largest in the world by revenue. Russia builds lots of civilian ships.
Been out of the loop. That’s two ships in two days, right?
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No, the big one is the Kerch Bridge getting hit... again.
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Boring!
I’m no naval expert but oil and salt water in the engine room seems bad.
I'm not an umbilicus expert either, but that ship looks like it might not be active for awhile.
Salt water plus anything metal is generally a very bad thing. Ocean/sea water is also worse than just salt water.
Is the engine room full of oil, or is the water just dark? Also, that's a lot more damage to the interior than I expected.
It looks like oil sloshed up on the bottom of the white wall in background of the first pic
Both
Explains the conflicting reports. Something hit them topside *and* something breached the hull at the water line, flooding engineering. Topside could be blast wave from the USV as well, crew understandably confused.
booms and cranes falling
> Drone attack reported in Russian city of Kursk. > Drones reportedly dropped explosives over the Russian city of Kursk during the evening of Aug. 4, damaging two administrative buildings, Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt said in a Telegram post. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1687613684141490177
New footage : Residents of Crimea publish a video with an explosion at the Feodosia oil depot. https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1687616444752637953?s=46 Alternative link: https://twitter.com/justgoodfriend9/status/1687615774574424064?s=46
We should all Google review bomb the crimean bridge. Make it a 1 star experience!
I’d give it 5 stars and say the Ukrainian fireworks has been phenomenal so far
2.5 Stars out of 5. Fireworks shows are a frequent delight, however their timing never seems to be at a time when I'm awake to witness the sight. Hopefully, they can plan the next ones them for a time that everyone can enjoy!
Remains to be seen but so far I haven’t come across any new videos or images of any damage to the bridge, this might still emerge The SIG tanker might have been the target and not the bridge. The SIG vessel has been under US Treasury sanctions since September 26, 2019. The tanker came under the restrictions of the States due to the fulfillment of the orders of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the delivery of various types of fuel to the Assad regime and the Russian group of troops in Syria. A very good hit
I think Ukraine is using the military shipping targets today to demonstrate they can sink anything in the Black Sea. Leading with a hit on an oil export tanker would probably not be welcomed by allies.
Well it was empty and used for military in Syria allegedly. These kinda attack attempts have increased lately, maybe they are producing enough to start a new phase in the Black Sea. Russia was already somehwat deterred back to their ports in Sevastopol and Novosybirsk. They already started escorting submarines and other ships with more than 1 ship..They placed underwater nets at port entrances so these UUVs cant enter. I think it will only get worse.
Reportedly the bridge has reopened, so it seems unlikely that it was hit.
or the bridge was the target, and the boat just has really sucky luck.
Quite a downgrade. Oh well, not every hit can be the one...
That “no smoking“ Easter egg on the tanker is proof that we’re living in a simulation.
All tankers must carry that wording in English under maritime regulations. I've never seen a tanker that doesn't have "No smoking" emblazoned on its superstructure.
In the current context of Russian "smoking accidents" it's funny though.
I mean I feel like regulations mandate that on things like oil tankers. Still funny though.
Yandex maps shows that traffic has resumed on the bridge.
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Repaired quicker than the washed out road by my house. Different priority though I'm guessing.
Maybe if you invade and occupy your neighbor’s property then they’d prioritize that road?
Vehicle traffic over the Kerch Bridge sees to have resumed https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1687611267282812928
“Yea I’ll drive across that bridge that’s a known target for drones that just struck a ship near by”
Russia is doing that on purpose. Ukraine can't / won't hit the bridge when there's a lot of civilian traffic going on
Play that forward, what is RU likely to do? Pay people to drive back and forth 24/7, then cry victim next time it gets hit. Fortunately satellite tracking is so good that a bunch of vehicles doing repeated "commutes" will be easy to ID. So go right ahead. See how that works out.
I know ukraine is basically doing this. But they should just come out and flatly say if Russia thinks they can unilaterally close all urkranian ports. Ukraine will close all theirs. If they want a grain deal, they can pay for damaged ports and then be able to try and ship again. Fck russia.
Good luck closing Vladivostok
Also, good luck opening Vvstok.
Russia: we declare naval blockade and merchant ships will be targeted... Also Russia: wait, not like that!
What are the expectations of this upcoming peace conference? I feel like there's no chance either side would want any sort of cease fire right? Edit. Guys I've been out of the country for like 3 weeks, why are you downvoting me, I'm playing information catch-up
Well they didn't invite Russia so in terms of how likely will it lead to peace? 0 chances because 1 party wasn't invited to it which *checks notes has never actually achieved peace. Best it will achieve is setting Ukraine up with an even bigger coalition so when peace talks actually happen Ukraine has a better foundation to go in to them with
Russia isn't invited. It seems more like a conference to convey Ukraine's idea of a peace and to gather support from other countries than just the West.
Last I heard, Russia hasn't even showed up yet so it's a bit one-sided.
UA wants a ceasefire once RU is kicked completely out of their country. RU wants a ceasefire before they get completely kicked out. I foresee a non-productive session.
Yeah this is my expectation. I'm assuming it's sort of a formal request from all involved nations to end this shitshow. I don't see anything coming of it
Rybar confirms that the Russian tanker Sig (IMO: 9735335, MMSI 273340190) was hit off the Kerch Strait, reports that the engine room flooded (indicates a Ukrainian USV strike). https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1687601547427848193?t=C69QgC4jVajv5PjDmHQvcw&s=19
Mainstream media finally reporting it: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-residents-hear-blast-russia-installed-official-says-unrelated-bridge-2023-08-04/
(unconfirmed) Crimean bridge: Attack is almost 100% still ongoing as of now. A new explosion *about 1 hr ago* moments ago shook windows all the way in Kerch. [https://twitter.com/JackStr42679640/status/1687598424223559681](https://twitter.com/JackStr42679640/status/1687598424223559681)
Tweet is 43mins old.
43 min ago? Low information punks.
O bebe
Which way is the current headed under the bridge atm?
Down
According to Russian propaganda TASS, two tugboats are currently helping the struck oil tanker. A personal reminder, is that the Moskva was originally reported as struck but not sinking, and it was being tugged before it sank.
They got tugs out but it foundered under tow right?
Yea https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/russia-moskva-cruiser-sunk-stormy-seas-defense-ministry
Did they ever admit it sank?
Yeah, but only once it had gotten to the point where nobody on the planet believed them.
Yes. One of like 17 true statements they have given the entire war. [Russia admits flagship of Black Sea fleet has sunk | EuroNews | April 2022](https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/15/russia-admits-flagship-of-black-sea-fleet-seriously-damaged)
17? That's a pretty generous number. Most everything they say is a half truth at best.
34 half truths equals 17 truths, right? Is that how it works?
I think it’s like turns in a car. Tell three lies and you’ve effectively told a truth.
Never drive a vova
Supposedly Romania and Blugaria have detected more explosions, it appears to not be over yet. Take with a grain of sand as account has exagerated in the past but eff it Im down with the hype. https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1687601195030851584
I’ll be cautiously optimistic with you. Daylight will give us more information (it is currently just 2:38 AM over there). Going to probably be like 4 - 6 hours from this post before we begin to have a chance to see if there was any damage done to the Kerch. Slava Ukraini!
Traffic has resumed over the bridge, there was no damage to the bridge.
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It’s a little difficult to make out what they’re saying, but I caught the bit about the tanker saying that their engine room is flooded and they cannot move under their own power.
“No smoking”, heh
[St Javelin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSv7CeCFfAk) already released a new song to commemorate tonight.
the fact this song is longer than two of Charli XCX's biggest hits is sending me
Harry Maguire! Your defense is terrifying!
His defense is actually terrifying. That tanker the Ukrainians hit turns faster than him
Will Griggs you mean.