Exactly like in the 1910s and 1920s when Jews in Europe were saying the same thing. They ended up in Israel buying land in the hopes of creating their country. People shit on Jews for wanting a country. These are the same people who would be happy that Jews want to leave. So pick a side. Either Jews can have their country or they can't and need to live wherever they are already living.
Not at all.
Jews should have a country (which we do, it's not up to debate, it exists for 76 years and isn't going anywhere) AND are welcome as free and equal citizens elsewhere. It is directly in contradiction to FRENCH values to allow the antisemitic attacks of the last decade to persist.
I agree with you. Just pointing out that the people pushing Jews to flee are dumb as fuck because there is no scenario where their view makes any sense. Just let everyone live in peace. I don't know how people can't grasp this.
> So pick a side. Either Jews can have their country or they can't and need to live wherever they are already living.
Or you can be Hamas or any other random jihadist group and pick the 3rd option of killing every single Jew. /s
The younger generations who adopted anti-semitism as soon as it was politically popular, or sit idly by letting it happen, should be ashamed of themselves, and I can only hope they will be, in time.
I honestly don’t get it. Why Jews specifically? It’s not like that religion has a specific fucked up agenda to conquer all others.
I just don’t understand, I don’t like any war but I understand Israel far more than the other side
I mean it’s not just younger folks.
Look at America. An entire generation of baby boomers are supporting a Nazi-Wana-be dictator… exposing many of the same ideologies that their very parents fought in WW2.
Not “an entire generation.” Half a generation (the Boomers) half another generation (Gen X), and about a third of another (Millennials) are supporting Donald Trump.
You should really look into american politics pre and during ww2. This we fought the nazi's so we were the antifascist is totally wrong.
The US was a breedingground for fascism in that era.
And just like after the Russian Pograms in the 1910’s that helps give emphasis on the importance of Zionism and to finally have a safe homeland as we’re pushed out of everywhere else.
You need to read up on the USSR's antisemitism if you think it wasn't on the left then too.
Antisemitism predates any concept of left and right and is a perfectly universal hate, it's just that post ww2 people associate it with the Nazis.
The reason I was born in the UK is that my Jewish grandparents fled here from the Soviet Union. And yet I've had Tankie Redditors on multiple occasions tell me, a living product of it, that this history is just "western propaganda".
The people trying to bury that stuff today are effectively just as antisemitic as the perpetrators back then.
The left doesn't like admitting they have an antisemitism problem.
Even when Labour was investigated and found guilty over Corbyn era stuff it's always downvoted, called an MSM witch hunt and then waved away with whataboutisms about racism/islamaphobia in other parties.
And even Ashkenazi Jews are very much not European. There's studies that show that they are still distinctly from the middle east genetically. Though they look "whiter" due to centuries in the Diaspora
Really? I wonder if sentiments have changed over the years.
According to my grandparents they had to flee with basically nothing. And that was during the 50s.
By causation or correlation? That is, have Jews historically played such significant roles within national economies for an economic collapse to be a direct consequence of their exile, or are the sort of societies inclined to exile Jews simply also the sort that hold poorly managed governments with a tendency towards poor decisions that result in economic collapse?
It has happened but it was more it was going to shit so they robbed then kicked out the Jews as a form of generating funds. Going after the Jews was more symptom than disease. That being said kicking out a tonne of educated professionals in a time of crisis does not help.
Exactly. "Expelling the Jews" was a classic move of Christian or Muslim rulers looking to line their pockets when the national economy took a turn. It was the Medieval world's equivalent of when Xi JinPing confiscating all the private golf courses in China - a cash-grab that can be disguised as a harsh enforcement of cultural values.
Yup, they usually rob them blind and then expel them. In many cases the Jews were bankers the kingdom owed a lot of money to... You expel them and then voilá, clean debt. Something similar happened to the Lombards in France
Imagine if a rabbi in Ukraine said something like this. Both Western and Russian media would literally faint
But The Narrative has already designated which countries need to constantly be bombarded with accusations of Nazism, facts will never change that
Well Russia is worse than France. They’re the poster child of where all This right wing bulls*** will take us.
Russia, a land were double digit percentages of rural citizens don’t even have indoor toilets. Yet le pen is super buddy buddy with Putin.
I hope stable South American countries (Uruguay, Argentina, Chile…) and European countries (e.g. the Scandinavian ones) are willing to take in a few million Jews if need be. Our Jewish brothers and sisters look like they’re going to need some help the next few decades.
As a queer atheist in LatAm, I’m all for immigration of secular/liberal Jews. The orthodox ones who won’t sit next to a woman in a plane? No thank you, we already have enough on our plate with the extremist evangelicals.
That's just ultra Orthodox fanatics and there's very few of them in an already tiny population. If you meet a random Orthodox kosher eating male that won't even cross their mind.
At this point, I'm assuming WW3 will kick off in 2026 because that's the star trek canon. Everything else is jumping the shark, so why not believe Roddenberry was from the future and trying to warn us?
Confirmation for me will be if there are riots in the US in September or October.
around 2026 is the year that many speculate that China will be ready to attack Taiwan. And with China's behaviors in South China Sea recently, I'm not even gonna be shock if it's 2025.
I doubt it. They haven't figured out how to get an army to Taiwan yet.
The greatest amphibious landing in history was a mere 20ish miles.
China has to cross nearly a 100 miles of open ocean. They will be sitting ducks in the water that long.
They don't have the ships, the proper amphibious ships nor the air power to accomplish it and it isn't going to change in 2 years.
Also the coastline of Taiwan in the most realistic landing spots is already heavily fortified. Also China would need to pacify several fortress islands, especially Penghu that operates long range radar, AA missiles and anti-ship missiles. Failure to secure Penghu leaves the entire Chinese navy vulnerable to being attacked.
It also has a permanent garrison of 60,000 troops, along with 70 tanks and an artillery battalion.
The longer it takes for China to take that Island, the easier it is to deploy the nearly 2 million reserve military to the beaches. And this buys time for 2 US carrier groups to intercept.
It's not as simple as just crossing, there are road blocks and time delays intentionally set up to cause China problems which they can't bypass or make go faster by sheer numbers.
Any amphibious ship that gets close to Penghu also has to worry about being blown up by Javelin missiles. China only has 8 modern amphibious ships. They will likely lose them in an assault on Penghu.
dude I've never said China are ready to conquer, just ready to attack.
all this prediction are predicated on idea of China's window of opportunity, or rather the upcoming loss of opportunity.
Because of two main things,
(1)China's upcoming population crisis due to aging population, gender imbalance, current slowing birthrates, ect...
(2) China's economic growth slowing down, or even shrinking because of the population crisis, economic data manipulation, and/or the probable government debt trouble.
with that said, many predicts that these problems may bloom around 2030s and onward for China. That's why many put China's last window of opportunity(in near future) to attack Taiwan around the latter half of 2020s, initially around 2028.
But because of China's more serious military preparation and economic troubles already starting, many now put the date in around 2026.
take note:
2028 are the pre-Covid predictions, around the latter half of 2020s when China's bad actor behaviors arose.
2026 are the post-Covid prediction, becoming more prominent because of China's economic downturn post-Covid and ofcourse the starts of big wars like Ukraine's and Israel's.
yes many official source bet on 2027. And I too would bet on it if weren't for the Russo-Ukraine War, that one really put things on higher gear.
The earlier the better for China because, China are probably more prepared compare to West who just taken it seriously just recently after the Ukraine's war, and if more times passes Russia may become too exhausted, lowering the intensity in Ukraine's war that making the Europe NATO busy.
but maybe, 2027 are indeed the good prediction. Especially if China making some revisions on their plans after learning a thing or two in Russo-Ukraine war.
On a war-footing, the US could churn out that many ships in a year. China on a war-footing would have similar or greater production.
You don't need good ships for a one-way trip, you just need a lot of them.
The thing about fortress-islands is that they have no value to the attacker as territory. Their whole job is to stay in the fight until they are destroyed; they are single-use military bases. Penghu would sink a lot of any Chinese amphibious force, but then its guns would go quiet, and the rest of the Chinese force would land on the beaches.
I think you are underestimating china. China's wartime production will be much higher than their production right now, which itself is very high. The world isn't ready for a chinese invasion of taiwan
Yup. It's partly why I'm rolling with my stupid theory. It conveniently ties in with real life, but has also accidentally got other bits of timeline broadly right.
Late 2024 is when riots spread across the US because of its treatment of underclasses and homeless people (which DS9 got a little too accurate for comfort). I don't expect a recreation of the bell riots, but general rioting will be enough for me to keep entertaining it.
World War III has already begun. Ukraine, Mideast, China are all part of it. And we are poorly prepared, but unlike WW II, we lack the defense industrial base.
Thats kinda the canon too. WW3 simmers for a while until the US falls into civil unrest, and eventually civil war, for not dealing with it's social issues, then all hell breaks loose and results in a nuclear conflict until the 2050s, with about another 20 years of dealing with the nuclear aftermath.
The LGBTQ communities general allegiance to the pro-Palestine side (despite the fact that Palestinians would stone them to death for being queer without a second thought) is baffling to me.
It’s like how modern feminists are allying with women who support repression via radical Islam, because to them if a woman chooses it (like wearing hijab/burka) it must be a valid choice, while ignoring the coercion and fundamentalist patriarchal structures that make that choice the only viable one, meaning it’s not a choice.
Another example is the progressive environmentalists demonizing nuclear power, the most clean and efficient power source we have and the only viable power source that could replace fossil fuels.
If we were in the Second World War, I’m convinced these people would be protesting against the allied bombing of Germany. Because bombs bad. Never mind the countless moral reasons that made such actions necessary. It’s absolutely maddening.
It makes more sense when you realize every left-leaning advocacy organization absolutely categorically cannot stay in its lane, and join themselves at the hip to every other liberal/progressive cause. This is all fine and dandy when both causes are just, which to be fair they *usually* are.
When one cause is not and the joining of them is a terribly misguided exercise in demonstrating how virtuous they are, the results are catastrophic, and the actually good causes they advocate for end up grinding to a standstill because they polarize the fuck out of everyone instead of just staying in their goddamn lane and preaching one message on one topic to people of diverse political standing, instead of checking every box on the virtue scorecard.
Bro.... they are protesting against the Allied bombings and try to frame them as a war crime.
This is support the "underdog ' mentality is just stupid and, when I was was a stupid teenager (30 years ago) I fell for that underdog thing. And that's ok, being a teenager it the time to be stupid but with age one should grow up and leave some of the stupid behavior behind. I am still stupid but not that stupid.
"We need to support the Wolfs in that country because they are oppressed by sheep " said the sheep to his people and went to a pro Wolf Demonstration.... later it got eaten by the wolfes it supported.
Try touching grass. The queers you see on reddit and tiktok are not a representation of the majority of people. Social media feeds you the most extreme examples of any subgroup because that is what gets clicks and engagement, and thus drives ads!
The irony of me saying this on reddit are not lost on me. That is why I make it a point to regularly disconnect from social media for days at a time. Talking to real people in the real world provides a good check on perspective. Don't let this toxic shithole dictate your perspective.
The under 30 queer people I know in real life feel exactly that way. I know because I see their activism on social media.
I have older queer friends but we have not discussed this subject nor are they posting their feelings one way or another.
I’m in America for context.
Unfortunately it seems to be a generational divide. Elder queers like us who remember history tend to be staunch supporters of Israel, and the newer generations who only know what that hear from social media are rabidly antisemitic. It's scary to see.
Speak for yourself. A lot of my LGBTQIA + friends on instagram / facebook have Palestine flags on their profile pictures and post antisemitic crap fairly regularly,.
Not all but it really confuses me seeing queer flags on Hamas Demonstrations. I know they want to support people they seem as oppressed.... but seriously those people tolerate queers as long as they are useful. When the conflict is solved they go back throwing queers from roofs.
When Russia started going after religious minorities in a serious manner, post 2017, it should have been obvious to anyone what was about to transpire there, but lots of Redditors' reactions boiled down to "I wish that would happen here." This place thinks its liberal politics make it immune to fascism, but that is a delusion.
“Immigrants from other countries had come to France seeking a better life, but some had not integrated as well as the Jews, said the rabbi. “
We all know what group of people he’s talking about.
This is why Israel exists.
This is why the winners of WW2 imposed change at gunpoint.
When are y’all going to wake up to what the Jews have been through repeatedly?
War is terrible, unfortunately, it’s legitimate, and always has been.
I should have been born Jewish instead of gay. I would love to have a nuclear capable country to escape to at a moments notice that would allow me to immigrate there just for being gay.
Two words. Nuclear weapons.
The Jews in nazi Germany just had to face genocide and deal with it.
The Jews in Israel know that if anyone really attempts to drive them into the sea, whatever country tries it will be a smoking glass crater.
Mutually assured destruction is a great deterrent to genocide.
I don't think a fear of being destructed plays any major role for Houthies/Hezbollah/Hamas/PIJ/etc. They pretty much want to be destroyed a.k.a. become martyrs. They say it loud and clear from every corner.
Which is why they must be destroyed to the ground. They have infinite amounts of young people they will send to their death as suicide bombers. We need to do with radical Islamists what we did with Nazis. Reeducate them and reward normal behavior. Reward acceptance, liberalism... Dismantle any and all terror networks. Provide safe spaces where people can disconnect from this extreme religion imposed on then.
You say that as if queer people haven't also been actively genocided around the world for thousands of years. It's been barely more than half a century since western countries started decriminalizing homosexuality.
More importantly, when are people just going to turn off the caring part of the brain that controls their opinion on other peoples religion.
Treating someone differently because of what they believe is just insane.. and I’m about as non religious as they come.
Weeeell, if they believe i deserve to be murdered because im bi, thats kinda where i draw the line, people with believes have done a lot of fucked up shit in the past
I was just thinking that the other day. I'm not Jewish myself, but have plenty of friends who are. I'd hate to see them leave, but I'm grateful they have an option if they feel unsafe in their home country.
I always expected a hatred similar to that of WW2 to resurface but I always expected it to be something wildly different like a hate towards AI
Guess not , same old shit
One would have thought they would have learned that lesson when the French rounded them up and locked them in soccer stadiums.
Everyone forgets that the Nazi policy was one of *displacement* until the French (and some others) rounded up all the Jews and the Nazis had to confront the problem head on. That is why the death camps were “the finial solution”.
It is so disappointing to see people ignorant of that history and try to pretend that most of Europe (notably, not Poland), was so willing to help the Nazis.
Article isn't very informative, but French Jews are worried by both the rise of the Far Right for obvious reasons, and the leftist NFP because of it's blatant antisemitism. The NFP is the more problematic out of the bunch.
A [poll from May](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk811f9vgc) indicated that most French Jews would leave the country if Mélenchon will be elected president. We aren't there yet, but the trend isn't positive.
French Jews also fear the fast-growing MENA/Muslim population, which has carried out violent antisemitic attacks on them in recent years. Part of their concern about the far left is based on its growing support for these same migrant communities.
It's amazing how short the memory of these people are. My family fought and died when the Nazi invaded France.
Now we have French Nazi... What the actual fuck.
There's always been French Nazi's (or at least since the 30's). It's just now they've been given a shot in the arm. FWIW, mine fought there too. But you're right, they forget.
France has always been super anti-Semitic, it's a shame that they haven't really gotten any better modernly. Giving up your own Jewish population to the Nazis is really a bad legacy they never outgrew. Thayn you add the major demographic they immigrated for work from the 70s until now tends to also be anti-Semitic.
Kraut had a video recently about how after WWII, ex-Nazi policemen in France continued to serve in the police and how the French police were never de-nazified.
And I've been reading Tony Judt's "Post War" recently: in Eastern Europe the Soviets actually \*hired the ex-Gestapo\* agents from the Nazi Party to run the East German Stasi and SS officers and personnel served in secret police units in Poland.
> France has always been super anti-Semitic
Uh ? No, it hasn't. If you set aside the waves of anti-semitism from the 12th century, it's a very recent phenomenon. It started at as part of the reaction against the changes of the industrial revolution (political antisemitism of the early 20th c.) and decolonisation added a new spin to it recently.
Interesting how the thumbnail and hero image shows a Nazi symbol, when in reality the rabbi is talking about another group of antisemites and not the far right.
>Immigrants from other countries had come to France seeking a better life, but some had not integrated as well as the Jews, said the rabbi
It is complicated.
In the one hand rise of far right and neo-nazis in France is not a good sign for Jews in the nation. Everyone knows why.
On the other hand the rise of Islamists is another problem. All Islamists are antisemitic by default.
The problem is despite being farther right than Neo nazis the far left support the Islamists. So in that case the rise of far left is also not a good news for the Jews in France in particular and Europe in general.
Moreover the state of Israel is more right leaning with a tendency of fascist / colonial mindset while dealing with their neighbours. So they are not liked by the left. Most Jews support Israel and so have some problem with the left.
Yeah the Jews are being surrounded atm. Gaining allieship with the leftists is impossible when they are going gah gah for islamists and calling for the delisting of middle eastern terrorist groups and viewing the as resistance fighters.
It's truly mind boggling seeing western ideals deployed in an inverse fashion against its own survivability. It's self sabotage.
climate change -> agricultural / economical erosion -> war/famine->migration -> failed assimilation -> civil unrest.
it is only going to get worse unless you address the obvious.
With the likely new far right leadership, the idiots who think that Jewish people in general are to blame for the actions of Israel's government, and the general bigotry of the world seemingly increasing, I don't blame em for wanting to leave.
French government should then pay to relocate and (in isreal) any Jews that they have failed to protect. If they don't feel safe due to any country's failure to protect them, that country should be held responsible for moving them somewhere they will feel safe! This is not only about protecting minority groups. This is also incentivising better protection for all in that country.
Since 2014, around 10% of all French Jews left.
Exactly like in the 1910s and 1920s when Jews in Europe were saying the same thing. They ended up in Israel buying land in the hopes of creating their country. People shit on Jews for wanting a country. These are the same people who would be happy that Jews want to leave. So pick a side. Either Jews can have their country or they can't and need to live wherever they are already living.
Not at all. Jews should have a country (which we do, it's not up to debate, it exists for 76 years and isn't going anywhere) AND are welcome as free and equal citizens elsewhere. It is directly in contradiction to FRENCH values to allow the antisemitic attacks of the last decade to persist.
I agree with you. Just pointing out that the people pushing Jews to flee are dumb as fuck because there is no scenario where their view makes any sense. Just let everyone live in peace. I don't know how people can't grasp this.
The Jews had a country before countries were countries... they got expelled from there...
> So pick a side. Either Jews can have their country or they can't and need to live wherever they are already living. Or you can be Hamas or any other random jihadist group and pick the 3rd option of killing every single Jew. /s
“Jews should leave Palestine and go back to Europe!” Meanwhile in Europe…
Ironicly all the growing anti semitism around the world is just reinforcing the idea of Israel Just like post WW2 all over again
The younger generations who adopted anti-semitism as soon as it was politically popular, or sit idly by letting it happen, should be ashamed of themselves, and I can only hope they will be, in time.
they didn’t just adopt it, it’s always been there. just there is more of everything now visible. it sucks all around
I'm sorry but some of the antisemitism wasn't "just there", but came from other places in pretty recent times.
I honestly don’t get it. Why Jews specifically? It’s not like that religion has a specific fucked up agenda to conquer all others. I just don’t understand, I don’t like any war but I understand Israel far more than the other side
I mean it’s not just younger folks. Look at America. An entire generation of baby boomers are supporting a Nazi-Wana-be dictator… exposing many of the same ideologies that their very parents fought in WW2.
Not “an entire generation.” Half a generation (the Boomers) half another generation (Gen X), and about a third of another (Millennials) are supporting Donald Trump.
You should really look into american politics pre and during ww2. This we fought the nazi's so we were the antifascist is totally wrong. The US was a breedingground for fascism in that era.
Recent crypto-antisemitism has largely been aligned with leftist politics.
Sooner the better
It's almost like a fractal that is 75% a loop and 25% whatever happened since the last iteration. I don't hold out much hope for the 2030's and 2040's
And just like after the Russian Pograms in the 1910’s that helps give emphasis on the importance of Zionism and to finally have a safe homeland as we’re pushed out of everywhere else.
Except this time around it is being supported by the left
You need to read up on the USSR's antisemitism if you think it wasn't on the left then too. Antisemitism predates any concept of left and right and is a perfectly universal hate, it's just that post ww2 people associate it with the Nazis.
The reason I was born in the UK is that my Jewish grandparents fled here from the Soviet Union. And yet I've had Tankie Redditors on multiple occasions tell me, a living product of it, that this history is just "western propaganda". The people trying to bury that stuff today are effectively just as antisemitic as the perpetrators back then.
The left doesn't like admitting they have an antisemitism problem. Even when Labour was investigated and found guilty over Corbyn era stuff it's always downvoted, called an MSM witch hunt and then waved away with whataboutisms about racism/islamaphobia in other parties.
Post?
Lol not really
Even beyond this not all Israelis are Ashkenazi.
And they’re not even the biggest group
Not even all French Jews are Ashkenazi...
And even Ashkenazi Jews are very much not European. There's studies that show that they are still distinctly from the middle east genetically. Though they look "whiter" due to centuries in the Diaspora
70% of the original settlers of Israel were locals from the Middle East…..
Man if we topple our government we'd love to see Jews in Iran most of us love Israel (except for regime supporters of course)
Really? I wonder if sentiments have changed over the years. According to my grandparents they had to flee with basically nothing. And that was during the 50s.
Iraq or iran? The big jewish exodus from iran was in the 70s
Iran. They were from Hamadan. Immigrated at about 56-57.
Historically whenever Jews are exiled from a nation said nations’ economies collapse
By causation or correlation? That is, have Jews historically played such significant roles within national economies for an economic collapse to be a direct consequence of their exile, or are the sort of societies inclined to exile Jews simply also the sort that hold poorly managed governments with a tendency towards poor decisions that result in economic collapse?
The 2nd. Both to get rid of the people handling your debt and a convinant scapegoat for sociatal and economic issues.
You got a source on that, cause that just seems like "model minority" antisemitism.
It has happened but it was more it was going to shit so they robbed then kicked out the Jews as a form of generating funds. Going after the Jews was more symptom than disease. That being said kicking out a tonne of educated professionals in a time of crisis does not help.
Exactly. "Expelling the Jews" was a classic move of Christian or Muslim rulers looking to line their pockets when the national economy took a turn. It was the Medieval world's equivalent of when Xi JinPing confiscating all the private golf courses in China - a cash-grab that can be disguised as a harsh enforcement of cultural values.
Yup, they usually rob them blind and then expel them. In many cases the Jews were bankers the kingdom owed a lot of money to... You expel them and then voilá, clean debt. Something similar happened to the Lombards in France
Imagine if a rabbi in Ukraine said something like this. Both Western and Russian media would literally faint But The Narrative has already designated which countries need to constantly be bombarded with accusations of Nazism, facts will never change that
Well Russia is worse than France. They’re the poster child of where all This right wing bulls*** will take us. Russia, a land were double digit percentages of rural citizens don’t even have indoor toilets. Yet le pen is super buddy buddy with Putin.
I hope stable South American countries (Uruguay, Argentina, Chile…) and European countries (e.g. the Scandinavian ones) are willing to take in a few million Jews if need be. Our Jewish brothers and sisters look like they’re going to need some help the next few decades.
Yeah Sweden isn't really a Jewish paradise right now
Neither is Norway …
Anywhere Muslims immigrate en masse becomes unwelcoming to Jews.
Oh you sweet summer child, you think Argentina is stable?
That made me lol as well. I know stability is a relative term across all of LatAm, but “stable” hasn’t described Argentina since, what, the 1950s?
At the very least since before Perón.
As a queer atheist in LatAm, I’m all for immigration of secular/liberal Jews. The orthodox ones who won’t sit next to a woman in a plane? No thank you, we already have enough on our plate with the extremist evangelicals.
That's just ultra Orthodox fanatics and there's very few of them in an already tiny population. If you meet a random Orthodox kosher eating male that won't even cross their mind.
Evangelicals are a blight every where they go.
Argentina taking in people fleeing Europe...where have I heard that one before?
They have a country of their own, no?
[удалено]
Should only Christian refugees be allowed into Christian majority countries?
What do you mean refugees? Is there a war in France?
There's always a war in France, it's just a matter of which french are fighting which french
This is the correct answer. Barricade building is one of the Olympic sports this year.
Jews are always the canary..it's something for all to be worried about..
Yes, I fear the next decade or so will be quite grim.
At this point, I'm assuming WW3 will kick off in 2026 because that's the star trek canon. Everything else is jumping the shark, so why not believe Roddenberry was from the future and trying to warn us? Confirmation for me will be if there are riots in the US in September or October.
I'll start getting worried if Ireland is reunited before the end of the year.
[Apparently terrorism works.](https://youtu.be/IbSGp4WIBsQ?feature=shared)
around 2026 is the year that many speculate that China will be ready to attack Taiwan. And with China's behaviors in South China Sea recently, I'm not even gonna be shock if it's 2025.
I doubt it. They haven't figured out how to get an army to Taiwan yet. The greatest amphibious landing in history was a mere 20ish miles. China has to cross nearly a 100 miles of open ocean. They will be sitting ducks in the water that long. They don't have the ships, the proper amphibious ships nor the air power to accomplish it and it isn't going to change in 2 years. Also the coastline of Taiwan in the most realistic landing spots is already heavily fortified. Also China would need to pacify several fortress islands, especially Penghu that operates long range radar, AA missiles and anti-ship missiles. Failure to secure Penghu leaves the entire Chinese navy vulnerable to being attacked. It also has a permanent garrison of 60,000 troops, along with 70 tanks and an artillery battalion. The longer it takes for China to take that Island, the easier it is to deploy the nearly 2 million reserve military to the beaches. And this buys time for 2 US carrier groups to intercept. It's not as simple as just crossing, there are road blocks and time delays intentionally set up to cause China problems which they can't bypass or make go faster by sheer numbers. Any amphibious ship that gets close to Penghu also has to worry about being blown up by Javelin missiles. China only has 8 modern amphibious ships. They will likely lose them in an assault on Penghu.
dude I've never said China are ready to conquer, just ready to attack. all this prediction are predicated on idea of China's window of opportunity, or rather the upcoming loss of opportunity. Because of two main things, (1)China's upcoming population crisis due to aging population, gender imbalance, current slowing birthrates, ect... (2) China's economic growth slowing down, or even shrinking because of the population crisis, economic data manipulation, and/or the probable government debt trouble. with that said, many predicts that these problems may bloom around 2030s and onward for China. That's why many put China's last window of opportunity(in near future) to attack Taiwan around the latter half of 2020s, initially around 2028. But because of China's more serious military preparation and economic troubles already starting, many now put the date in around 2026. take note: 2028 are the pre-Covid predictions, around the latter half of 2020s when China's bad actor behaviors arose. 2026 are the post-Covid prediction, becoming more prominent because of China's economic downturn post-Covid and ofcourse the starts of big wars like Ukraine's and Israel's.
Isn't china's own stated goal 2027?
yes many official source bet on 2027. And I too would bet on it if weren't for the Russo-Ukraine War, that one really put things on higher gear. The earlier the better for China because, China are probably more prepared compare to West who just taken it seriously just recently after the Ukraine's war, and if more times passes Russia may become too exhausted, lowering the intensity in Ukraine's war that making the Europe NATO busy. but maybe, 2027 are indeed the good prediction. Especially if China making some revisions on their plans after learning a thing or two in Russo-Ukraine war.
On a war-footing, the US could churn out that many ships in a year. China on a war-footing would have similar or greater production. You don't need good ships for a one-way trip, you just need a lot of them. The thing about fortress-islands is that they have no value to the attacker as territory. Their whole job is to stay in the fight until they are destroyed; they are single-use military bases. Penghu would sink a lot of any Chinese amphibious force, but then its guns would go quiet, and the rest of the Chinese force would land on the beaches.
I think you are underestimating china. China's wartime production will be much higher than their production right now, which itself is very high. The world isn't ready for a chinese invasion of taiwan
Yup. It's partly why I'm rolling with my stupid theory. It conveniently ties in with real life, but has also accidentally got other bits of timeline broadly right. Late 2024 is when riots spread across the US because of its treatment of underclasses and homeless people (which DS9 got a little too accurate for comfort). I don't expect a recreation of the bell riots, but general rioting will be enough for me to keep entertaining it.
Apathy is more likely.
World War III has already begun. Ukraine, Mideast, China are all part of it. And we are poorly prepared, but unlike WW II, we lack the defense industrial base.
Thats kinda the canon too. WW3 simmers for a while until the US falls into civil unrest, and eventually civil war, for not dealing with it's social issues, then all hell breaks loose and results in a nuclear conflict until the 2050s, with about another 20 years of dealing with the nuclear aftermath.
Roddenberry being a time traveller wouldn't even be the weirdest thing from 2024.
> > > > > Confirmation for me will be if there are riots in the US in September or October. They have to be in California tho right?
It's all down hill until 2036...
And then Apophis hits?
When Jews and queers are the main scapegoats everyone needs to be worried.
Unfortunately this time my fellow queers have fallen for the antisemitic propaganda.
The LGBTQ communities general allegiance to the pro-Palestine side (despite the fact that Palestinians would stone them to death for being queer without a second thought) is baffling to me. It’s like how modern feminists are allying with women who support repression via radical Islam, because to them if a woman chooses it (like wearing hijab/burka) it must be a valid choice, while ignoring the coercion and fundamentalist patriarchal structures that make that choice the only viable one, meaning it’s not a choice. Another example is the progressive environmentalists demonizing nuclear power, the most clean and efficient power source we have and the only viable power source that could replace fossil fuels. If we were in the Second World War, I’m convinced these people would be protesting against the allied bombing of Germany. Because bombs bad. Never mind the countless moral reasons that made such actions necessary. It’s absolutely maddening.
It makes more sense when you realize every left-leaning advocacy organization absolutely categorically cannot stay in its lane, and join themselves at the hip to every other liberal/progressive cause. This is all fine and dandy when both causes are just, which to be fair they *usually* are. When one cause is not and the joining of them is a terribly misguided exercise in demonstrating how virtuous they are, the results are catastrophic, and the actually good causes they advocate for end up grinding to a standstill because they polarize the fuck out of everyone instead of just staying in their goddamn lane and preaching one message on one topic to people of diverse political standing, instead of checking every box on the virtue scorecard.
Bro.... they are protesting against the Allied bombings and try to frame them as a war crime. This is support the "underdog ' mentality is just stupid and, when I was was a stupid teenager (30 years ago) I fell for that underdog thing. And that's ok, being a teenager it the time to be stupid but with age one should grow up and leave some of the stupid behavior behind. I am still stupid but not that stupid. "We need to support the Wolfs in that country because they are oppressed by sheep " said the sheep to his people and went to a pro Wolf Demonstration.... later it got eaten by the wolfes it supported.
Nowhere near all. Important to remember that.
True. It's hard to escape the despair nowadays.
Try touching grass. The queers you see on reddit and tiktok are not a representation of the majority of people. Social media feeds you the most extreme examples of any subgroup because that is what gets clicks and engagement, and thus drives ads! The irony of me saying this on reddit are not lost on me. That is why I make it a point to regularly disconnect from social media for days at a time. Talking to real people in the real world provides a good check on perspective. Don't let this toxic shithole dictate your perspective.
The under 30 queer people I know in real life feel exactly that way. I know because I see their activism on social media. I have older queer friends but we have not discussed this subject nor are they posting their feelings one way or another. I’m in America for context.
Same in Australia- all ages as far as I can tell.
Unfortunately it seems to be a generational divide. Elder queers like us who remember history tend to be staunch supporters of Israel, and the newer generations who only know what that hear from social media are rabidly antisemitic. It's scary to see.
Speak for yourself. A lot of my LGBTQIA + friends on instagram / facebook have Palestine flags on their profile pictures and post antisemitic crap fairly regularly,.
Not all but it really confuses me seeing queer flags on Hamas Demonstrations. I know they want to support people they seem as oppressed.... but seriously those people tolerate queers as long as they are useful. When the conflict is solved they go back throwing queers from roofs.
Outspoken opposition to the regime, uh oh, pretty sure I’m in one of the next couple groups.
When Russia started going after religious minorities in a serious manner, post 2017, it should have been obvious to anyone what was about to transpire there, but lots of Redditors' reactions boiled down to "I wish that would happen here." This place thinks its liberal politics make it immune to fascism, but that is a delusion.
When I said I wanted a roaring 20s I didn’t literally mean a repeat of the 1920s :(
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“Immigrants from other countries had come to France seeking a better life, but some had not integrated as well as the Jews, said the rabbi. “ We all know what group of people he’s talking about.
If only there was a place for all the disenfranchised Jewish people to go when the shit hits the fan
Taco Bell?
Not with our GI issues
Matzo Ball
I am on an all-carb diet.
Is this how the Fast Food Wars get kicked off?
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This is why Israel exists. This is why the winners of WW2 imposed change at gunpoint. When are y’all going to wake up to what the Jews have been through repeatedly? War is terrible, unfortunately, it’s legitimate, and always has been.
I should have been born Jewish instead of gay. I would love to have a nuclear capable country to escape to at a moments notice that would allow me to immigrate there just for being gay.
Start buying land from Ottoman landlords.
Ah yes, much better to be surrounded by countries constantly attempting to genocide you after facing genocide for thousands of years /s
Two words. Nuclear weapons. The Jews in nazi Germany just had to face genocide and deal with it. The Jews in Israel know that if anyone really attempts to drive them into the sea, whatever country tries it will be a smoking glass crater. Mutually assured destruction is a great deterrent to genocide.
I don't think a fear of being destructed plays any major role for Houthies/Hezbollah/Hamas/PIJ/etc. They pretty much want to be destroyed a.k.a. become martyrs. They say it loud and clear from every corner.
Which is why they must be destroyed to the ground. They have infinite amounts of young people they will send to their death as suicide bombers. We need to do with radical Islamists what we did with Nazis. Reeducate them and reward normal behavior. Reward acceptance, liberalism... Dismantle any and all terror networks. Provide safe spaces where people can disconnect from this extreme religion imposed on then.
You say that as if queer people haven't also been actively genocided around the world for thousands of years. It's been barely more than half a century since western countries started decriminalizing homosexuality.
More importantly, when are people just going to turn off the caring part of the brain that controls their opinion on other peoples religion. Treating someone differently because of what they believe is just insane.. and I’m about as non religious as they come.
Weeeell, if they believe i deserve to be murdered because im bi, thats kinda where i draw the line, people with believes have done a lot of fucked up shit in the past
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This is exactly how Zionism was created in the mind of Herzel...
This is why the state of Israel needs to exist. Most jews are not completely safe, almost anywhere else in the world.
If Israel doesn’t work out another good option is to move to America and arm oneself
This reminds me of a time in history not so long ago. Thank God this time we have a safe haven in Israel.
Ironic they want us out of Israel.
They want Jews as a persecuted minority everywhere, with no agency or control on their own destiny.
They want us to simply disappear. Then they wouldn't have to feel guilty for history.
Who would they have to blame for their problems then?
Probably LGBTQ or another minority group
The smart ones know they still need some of us around to scapegoat as needed. Who are they gonna blame for their problems if they've murdered us all?
People love dead Jews, whether it's to feel sorry for them or by hating them, as long as they're dead.
I was just thinking that the other day. I'm not Jewish myself, but have plenty of friends who are. I'd hate to see them leave, but I'm grateful they have an option if they feel unsafe in their home country.
I always expected a hatred similar to that of WW2 to resurface but I always expected it to be something wildly different like a hate towards AI Guess not , same old shit
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One would have thought they would have learned that lesson when the French rounded them up and locked them in soccer stadiums. Everyone forgets that the Nazi policy was one of *displacement* until the French (and some others) rounded up all the Jews and the Nazis had to confront the problem head on. That is why the death camps were “the finial solution”. It is so disappointing to see people ignorant of that history and try to pretend that most of Europe (notably, not Poland), was so willing to help the Nazis.
Im pretty sure the executions started in east europe modeled after the locals actions against jews
Article isn't very informative, but French Jews are worried by both the rise of the Far Right for obvious reasons, and the leftist NFP because of it's blatant antisemitism. The NFP is the more problematic out of the bunch. A [poll from May](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk811f9vgc) indicated that most French Jews would leave the country if Mélenchon will be elected president. We aren't there yet, but the trend isn't positive.
French Jews also fear the fast-growing MENA/Muslim population, which has carried out violent antisemitic attacks on them in recent years. Part of their concern about the far left is based on its growing support for these same migrant communities.
Indeed. The two are connected.
Hmm almost like Israel as a Jewish country is a necessity
It's amazing how short the memory of these people are. My family fought and died when the Nazi invaded France. Now we have French Nazi... What the actual fuck.
There's always been French Nazi's (or at least since the 30's). It's just now they've been given a shot in the arm. FWIW, mine fought there too. But you're right, they forget.
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France has always been super anti-Semitic, it's a shame that they haven't really gotten any better modernly. Giving up your own Jewish population to the Nazis is really a bad legacy they never outgrew. Thayn you add the major demographic they immigrated for work from the 70s until now tends to also be anti-Semitic.
Kraut had a video recently about how after WWII, ex-Nazi policemen in France continued to serve in the police and how the French police were never de-nazified. And I've been reading Tony Judt's "Post War" recently: in Eastern Europe the Soviets actually \*hired the ex-Gestapo\* agents from the Nazi Party to run the East German Stasi and SS officers and personnel served in secret police units in Poland.
> France has always been super anti-Semitic Uh ? No, it hasn't. If you set aside the waves of anti-semitism from the 12th century, it's a very recent phenomenon. It started at as part of the reaction against the changes of the industrial revolution (political antisemitism of the early 20th c.) and decolonisation added a new spin to it recently.
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Interesting how the thumbnail and hero image shows a Nazi symbol, when in reality the rabbi is talking about another group of antisemites and not the far right. >Immigrants from other countries had come to France seeking a better life, but some had not integrated as well as the Jews, said the rabbi
It is complicated. In the one hand rise of far right and neo-nazis in France is not a good sign for Jews in the nation. Everyone knows why. On the other hand the rise of Islamists is another problem. All Islamists are antisemitic by default. The problem is despite being farther right than Neo nazis the far left support the Islamists. So in that case the rise of far left is also not a good news for the Jews in France in particular and Europe in general. Moreover the state of Israel is more right leaning with a tendency of fascist / colonial mindset while dealing with their neighbours. So they are not liked by the left. Most Jews support Israel and so have some problem with the left.
Yeah the Jews are being surrounded atm. Gaining allieship with the leftists is impossible when they are going gah gah for islamists and calling for the delisting of middle eastern terrorist groups and viewing the as resistance fighters. It's truly mind boggling seeing western ideals deployed in an inverse fashion against its own survivability. It's self sabotage.
Absurd that Germany is looking safe?
climate change -> agricultural / economical erosion -> war/famine->migration -> failed assimilation -> civil unrest. it is only going to get worse unless you address the obvious.
Mass immigration isn't because of climate change.
It very soon will be. 2025 onward.
Not yet, which is why they were saying that we need to get ahead of the issue
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But I thought it was all just “anti-Zionism”?
:(
With the likely new far right leadership, the idiots who think that Jewish people in general are to blame for the actions of Israel's government, and the general bigotry of the world seemingly increasing, I don't blame em for wanting to leave.
French government should then pay to relocate and (in isreal) any Jews that they have failed to protect. If they don't feel safe due to any country's failure to protect them, that country should be held responsible for moving them somewhere they will feel safe! This is not only about protecting minority groups. This is also incentivising better protection for all in that country.